Everyone knew Cooper Flagg was going to be good. But honestly, watching him navigate the Western Conference as a 19-year-old for the Dallas Mavericks is something else entirely. We’ve seen "can't-miss" prospects before. Some hit, like Victor Wembanyama, who basically broke the league's defensive metrics two years ago. Others... well, they sort of just become solid starters.
But Flagg is currently the heavy favorite for nba rookie of the year, and it’s not even a close race at the betting windows right now.
The Cooper Flagg Effect in Dallas
The numbers are pretty staggering for a kid who was in high school just a minute ago. As of mid-January 2026, Flagg is putting up roughly 19.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. He’s shooting 48% from the floor, which is kind of wild when you consider he’s often the second or third option defenses have to worry about next to Luka Dončić.
The Mavericks took him with the #1 overall pick, and the fit has been seamless. Usually, a top pick goes to a basement-dweller. Flagg got lucky; he’s playing meaningful minutes on a team with title aspirations.
Most people think the Rookie of the Year award is just about who scores the most. It’s not. It’s about impact. Flagg is currently sitting at -1000 odds at most sportsbooks. To put that in perspective, that’s a 90% implied probability that he’s taking the trophy home.
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Who Else is Actually in the Hunt?
If Flagg is the sun, the rest of the 2025 draft class is just orbiting him, but there are some seriously bright spots.
Kon Knueppel: The Sniper in Charlotte
You’ve got to give it up for Kon Knueppel. The Charlotte Hornets got a total steal at #4. For a brief moment in November, Knueppel actually jumped Flagg in the odds. He’s averaging 19.1 points—identical to Flagg—and shooting a blistering 42.8% from three-point range. If the Hornets weren't, well, the Hornets, he might have a stronger case. He’s the clear #2 right now at +800.
V.J. Edgecombe: The Sixers' Missing Piece
Down in Philly, V.J. Edgecombe is doing things that don't always show up in the box score, though 15.7 points and 1.5 steals per game are plenty loud. He’s been a defensive menace. Working alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey has allowed him to focus on being a high-level "3-and-D" wing with legitimate star upside. He leads all rookies in "handle percentage" for bettors, meaning people are putting their actual money on him more than anyone else, hoping for a Flagg stumble.
The Sleepers
- Derik Queen (New Orleans): He’s a double-double machine, leading all rookies with 7.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Big men usually don't win this award lately, but his playmaking is unique.
- Dylan Harper (San Antonio): He’s stuck behind the Stephon Castle and Wemby shadow, but he’s still putting up 10.5 points and looking like a future All-Star.
Why the Race for NBA Rookie of the Year is Different This Year
History tells us that the #1 pick wins this award about 40% of the time. But the 2025-26 class feels deeper than the 2024 group where Stephon Castle took it home. Last year, the narrative was about who would "suck the least" early on. This year, we have multiple guys who would have won the award in almost any other season.
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One thing most fans get wrong is assuming the scoring leader always wins. Remember 2017? Malcolm Brogdon won it over guys with much flashier stats because he was efficient and played on a winning team. Flagg has the stats and the wins.
The Fatigue Factor
We are halfway through the season. The "Rookie Wall" is a very real thing. These guys are used to playing 30-35 games in college; they are currently hitting that mark right now in the NBA, with 40+ games left to go.
If Flagg's shooting percentages dip in February, watch for Knueppel to make a run. The media loves a "pure shooter" narrative, and if Charlotte manages to sniff a Play-In spot, the conversation will shift.
Honestly, it’s Flagg’s award to lose. He’s the biggest preseason favorite we’ve seen since at least 2007, even eclipsing the hype around Kevin Durant and Wemby.
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What to Watch For Next
If you're tracking the nba rookie of the year race, keep an eye on the head-to-head matchups in late January and February. When the Mavs play the Hornets or the Sixers, those are the games the voters actually remember.
Actionable Insights for Following the Race:
- Check the "Clutch" Stats: Voters are increasingly looking at how rookies perform in the final five minutes of close games. Flagg currently leads this class in fourth-quarter scoring.
- Monitor the Minutes: Watch out for "load management" or minor injuries. To win, a player generally needs to play at least 65 games under the newer league rules for certain honors, though ROY has some flexibility.
- Look at Defensive Rating: Edgecombe and Flagg are both plus-defenders. In a league that’s scoring-heavy, a rookie who actually stops someone stands out to the older voters.
Keep an eye on the injury reports and the shooting splits as we head into the All-Star break. That’s usually when the winner separates themselves from the pack for good.