Everyone thought the 2025-26 season would be a coronation. When the Dallas Mavericks landed the first overall pick and drafted Cooper Flagg, the conversation about NBA Rookie of the Year felt essentially over before it started. People were already engraving his name on the trophy. But honestly? It's been way more complicated than the highlight reels suggest.
Cooper Flagg is incredible. He is. But if you’re actually watching the games and not just checking box scores, you’ve noticed that this rookie class is deep. Like, scary deep. We aren't just seeing a one-man show; we're seeing a genuine battle for the throne that has shifted several times since October.
The Flagg Dominance and the Reality of Being No. 1
Look, Flagg is the heavy favorite for a reason. He’s currently sitting at roughly -900 odds at most sportsbooks, which is basically Vegas saying, "Don't bother betting against him." He's averaging about 19.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and over 4 assists a night. Those are "All-Star in three years" numbers.
Earlier this season, on December 15, he went absolutely nuclear. He dropped 42 points, becoming the youngest player in NBA history to cross the 40-point threshold. He took LeBron James' record and just tossed it aside.
The most impressive part? It’s the "stocks"—steals and blocks. He’s playing defense like a seasoned vet, not an 18-year-old kid. Most rookies get targeted on defense. Teams actively run plays at them. With Flagg, they’re starting to run away from him. That’s the difference.
But he did have a rocky start. Transitioning to a Mavericks team that had to adjust after the departure of Luka Dončić wasn't seamless. For the first few weeks, Flagg looked a bit lost in the half-court set. He was settling for jumpers. He was turning the ball over. Then, Jason Kidd moved him back into a "point forward" role, and the lightbulb went on. Since late November, he’s been the best player on the court in almost every game he’s played.
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Why Kon Knueppel Is More Than Just a "Sleeper"
If Cooper Flagg didn't exist, we would be talking about Kon Knueppel as a generational talent. Seriously. The Charlotte Hornets got an absolute steal with the fourth pick.
Knueppel is averaging 19.1 points—dead even with Flagg—and he’s doing it with absurd efficiency. He’s shooting 48% from the field and over 42% from three. On December 22, he became the fastest player in league history to hit 100 three-pointers. He did it in 29 games.
The thing about Knueppel is his brain. You watch him play, and he’s always two steps ahead. He doesn't have Flagg’s "jump out of the gym" athleticism, but he never seems hurried. While Flagg is the flashy superstar, Knueppel is the guy who will kill you with a back-door cut or a contested three at the buzzer.
"Kon is as good as it gets for a rookie," one scout mentioned recently. "He's not a traffic cone on defense, and his stability next to a wild card like LaMelo Ball is exactly what Charlotte needed."
He actually held the lead in the NBA Rookie of the Year race for a few days in mid-November. If Flagg misses any significant time, Knueppel is standing right there to take the trophy.
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The Wild Cards: Edgecombe, Queen, and the Spurs' Secret Weapon
Don't sleep on the rest of the lottery. VJ Edgecombe in Philadelphia is a defensive menace. He started the year with 34 points in his debut, breaking Allen Iverson’s franchise record for a rookie debut. He’s had some injury bugs lately, which cooled his hype, but when he’s healthy, he’s arguably the best guard defender in this class.
Then there’s Derik Queen in New Orleans. The Pelicans caught a lot of heat for the trade they made to get him, but the kid is putting up triple-doubles. He’s inconsistent—he’ll have 25 points one night and 6 the next—but the ceiling is through the roof.
And what about San Antonio? After Stephon Castle won it last year and Victor Wembanyama the year before, they have Dylan Harper now. Harper isn't getting the same touches because he's playing behind Fox and Castle, but his "per-36" numbers are elite. The Spurs are building a juggernaut, and Harper is a massive part of that.
The "Rookie Wall" Is Real
We are heading into late January, which is usually when the "Rookie Wall" hits. These guys are used to playing 30-35 games a year in college. They’re currently at game 40 of an 82-game grind.
How Flagg and Knueppel handle the travel and the fatigue over the next six weeks will decide the award. History shows that voters love a strong finish. Remember Stephon Castle last year? He wasn't the favorite in January, but he closed the season so strong that he ran away with the votes.
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What to Watch For in the Second Half
- Efficiency: Can Knueppel keep shooting 42% from deep as legs get tired?
- Health: One ankle sprain can change the entire betting landscape.
- Team Success: If the Mavericks make a push for a top-6 seed, it’s Flagg’s award. If they slide, and Charlotte sneaks into the play-in, Knueppel has a narrative.
Final Word on the Race
The NBA Rookie of the Year award usually goes to the guy with the most points, but this year feels different. It’s a battle of philosophies. Do you vote for the two-way, high-ceiling superstar in Flagg, or the hyper-efficient, "pro's pro" in Knueppel?
Right now, it's Cooper's to lose. He’s doing things an 18-year-old shouldn't be able to do. But don't look away. One bad week and this race becomes a dead heat.
If you're tracking this for a fantasy league or a sportsbook, keep a close eye on the "stocks" (steals + blocks). Flagg’s value comes from his defensive impact as much as his scoring. For Knueppel, it's all about the shooting splits. If he drops below 40% from three, the "best shooter in the draft" narrative loses its teeth.
Next Steps for Following the Race:
- Track the Mavericks' defensive rating when Flagg is on vs. off the court; it's the strongest argument for his ROTY case.
- Check the injury reports for the Sixers; if Maxey or Embiid sit, VJ Edgecombe’s usage skyrockets, making him a prime candidate for a late-season surge.
- Watch the Hornets' record compared to last year; voters love a "winner" narrative, and Knueppel is central to Charlotte's turnaround.