Honestly, if you looked at the betting odds back in October, you’d have thought the rookie of the year nba race was already over before a single tip-off. Cooper Flagg walked into Dallas with -225 preseason odds—the heaviest favorite we’ve seen since Kevin Durant in '07. People were basically ready to hand him the trophy while he was still moving into his apartment.
But then the games actually started.
Basketball has a funny way of humbling the "sure things." While Flagg has been every bit the monster we expected, a couple of guys like Kon Knueppel and V.J. Edgecombe have turned this into a legitimate fight. We’re sitting here in mid-January 2026, and while Flagg is the heavy frontrunner, the "lock" narrative has some serious cracks in it.
The Cooper Flagg Standard: 20/5/5 or Bust?
Let's look at the numbers because they’re kind of absurd for a 19-year-old. Flagg is currently putting up about 19.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. He’s shooting 48% from the field. That’s not just "good for a rookie" production; that’s "All-Star reserve conversation" production.
The turning point for a lot of skeptics was that December 15th game against Utah. Flagg went off for 42 points, tying the Mavs' rookie record held by Mark Aguirre. He also became the youngest player in NBA history to drop 40+. He did it with a mix of bully-ball drives and a jumper that looks way more polished than it did at Duke.
"I just want to hoop," Flagg said after a recent game. "The awards will be there if we win."
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Classic athlete talk, sure. But the impact is real. He’s playing nearly 35 minutes a night for a Dallas team that has been hit hard by injuries, including Kyrie Irving’s ACL recovery. He’s been forced to be "The Guy" alongside Anthony Davis way sooner than anyone planned.
Kon Knueppel: The Duke Teammate Turning Heads
If you haven’t been watching the Charlotte Hornets, you’re missing the most surprising part of the rookie of the year nba race. Kon Knueppel wasn’t supposed to be this good this fast. He was a +2000 long shot on opening night.
Now? He’s the only person currently standing between Flagg and a unanimous vote.
Knueppel is averaging 19.1 points—exactly the same as Flagg—but he’s doing it with legendary efficiency. He recently became the fastest player in NBA history to hit 100 three-pointers. He’s shooting 48% from the floor and keeping a perennially struggling Hornets team competitive.
What’s wild is his "old man game." He doesn't play like a kid. He understands spacing, makes the extra pass, and according to some scouts, he’s already thinking three moves ahead of the defense. It’s rare to see a rookie who isn't a "traffic cone" on defense, and while Kon isn't an elite stopper, he holds his own.
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Comparing the Top Two (As of January 2026)
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Field Goal % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 19.1 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 48.0% |
| Kon Knueppel | 19.1 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 48.0% |
It’s basically a coin flip on the offensive end. The difference is the defensive "stocks" (steals + blocks). Flagg is averaging over 2 per game, which gives him that two-way edge that voters love.
V.J. Edgecombe and the "What If" Factor
Then there’s V.J. Edgecombe in Philly. If he hadn't missed time with that injury, he might be leading this thing. He started the season by dropping 34 points in his debut. That broke Allen Iverson’s franchise record for a rookie debut. Think about that for a second. In a city that worships AI, Edgecombe walked in and cleared the bar on night one.
He’s the most explosive athlete in the class, hands down. When he’s on the floor with Maxey and Embiid, he looks like a seasoned vet who just happens to have a 40-inch vertical. He’s averaging 15.9 points and 1.6 steals, and he’s probably the best perimeter defender of all the lottery picks.
The Rutgers Duo: Slumps and Surges
It’s been a weird year for the Rutgers guys.
Dylan Harper was the No. 2 pick and looked like a star early on for the Spurs. But lately? He’s fallen off the "Rookie Ladder" entirely. He’s averaging about 11 points and 3.7 assists, but he’s stuck in a crowded backcourt behind De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. It’s hard to win ROY when you’re coming off the bench for the 2nd seed in the West.
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Meanwhile, Ace Bailey in Utah is starting to find his rhythm. He’s at 10.4 points per game, and his high-release jumper is becoming a problem for defenders. He’s not going to win the award—his odds have ballooned to +50000—but he’s proving he belongs.
Why the Race Matters More This Year
The 2025-26 class is being compared to 2018 (Luka, Trae, SGA) or even 2003 (LeBron, Wade, Melo). We aren't just looking at one or two good players. We're looking at a deep pool of talent where guys like Derik Queen in New Orleans and Cedric Coward in Memphis are puting up "A-" grade seasons and barely getting a mention.
Derik Queen actually had a 30-point triple-double earlier this season. In almost any other year, that would make him the story of the month. This year? It’s just a footnote in the Flagg vs. Knueppel saga.
What to Watch For in the Second Half
To keep track of the rookie of the year nba race moving forward, you have to look past the scoring titles. Voters usually lean toward three things:
- Availability: If Flagg’s recent ankle sprain lingers, the door opens wide for Knueppel.
- Team Success: The "bad team" narrative usually hurts rookies, but Flagg is keeping Dallas afloat. If Charlotte makes a play-in push, Knueppel’s case becomes very loud.
- The "Wow" Moment: Edgecombe has the highlights, but Flagg has the 40-point historic nights.
Right now, Flagg has about a 90% implied probability to win. It’s his to lose. But if you're looking for a dark horse, keep an eye on how Edgecombe finishes the season in Philadelphia. If the Sixers go on a run and he's the third-best player on a title contender, the conversation shifts.
Actionable Insights for Fans
- Watch the head-to-heads: Mark your calendar for the next Mavs vs. Hornets game. When Flagg and Knueppel share the court, it’s basically a playoff atmosphere for the scouts.
- Check the "Stocks": If you're debating who's better, look at the combined steals and blocks. Flagg’s defensive impact is the secret sauce that separates him from the pure scorers.
- Ignore the early-season noise: Rookies usually "hit the wall" in February. Whoever is still standing by March 15th is likely your winner.