Everybody knew the 2025-26 season was going to be the Cooper Flagg show. Honestly, from the moment the Dallas Mavericks snagged him at number one, the narrative was basically set in stone. He was the most hyped prospect since Wemby, and the sportsbooks didn't waste any time reflecting that. When the NBA rookie of the year odds first dropped, Flagg was sitting at a massive -225. That is a wild number for someone who hadn't even checked into a professional game yet. For context, even Victor Wembanyama opened at a more "modest" -145.
But here we are in mid-January, and things have gotten weird.
Is Flagg still the favorite? Yeah, and it’s not particularly close if you just look at the boards. Most books have him somewhere between -900 and -1200. He is putting up roughly 19.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists a night. Those are "all-star in the making" numbers. Yet, if you’ve been watching the games instead of just checking the box scores, you’ve seen the door crack open just a tiny bit for the field.
The Duke Connection and the Rise of Kon Knueppel
The biggest surprise of the season hasn't been Flagg's dominance—it’s been his former college teammate, Kon Knueppel. Back in October, Knueppel was a total afterthought in the betting markets, floating around +2000 or even +3000 at some spots. Nobody expected the Charlotte Hornets' rookie to be this polished this fast.
Around late November, Knueppel actually did the unthinkable: he briefly overtook Flagg as the betting favorite at some books. It only lasted a few days, but it proved that this race isn't a formality. Knueppel is averaging 19.1 points himself, shooting a ridiculous 48% from the floor. He isn't just a shooter; he's becoming a primary engine for a Hornets team that’s been decimated by injuries. Reggie Miller even went on record saying Knueppel is winning the award. That’s heavy praise coming from a Hall of Famer.
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Currently, Knueppel sits at +650 to +900 depending on where you shop. If Flagg misses any significant time—which is always the fear with high-usage rookies—Knueppel is the clear "Plan B" for voters.
The Long Shots and Stat-Stuffers
If you're looking further down the list, the value gets interesting, but the path to winning gets a lot narrower. You've got guys like VJ Edgecombe in Philadelphia. He’s currently around +2500. Edgecombe actually broke Allen Iverson’s franchise record for points in a debut with a 34-piece earlier this year. He’s an elite guard defender, but playing next to Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid means he doesn't always get the "usage" needed to win a narrative-driven award like ROTY.
Then there’s Derik Queen in New Orleans. He’s at +5000. The Pelicans are a mess right now, but Queen has been a lone bright spot. He even hung a 30-point triple-double on a team in December. The talent is there, but consistency is the killer for him. One night he looks like Nikola Jokic-lite, the next he’s struggling to get 10 points.
- Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): -1000 (The "safe" but expensive play)
- Kon Knueppel (Hornets): +800 (The legitimate challenger)
- VJ Edgecombe (76ers): +2500 (The high-ceiling athlete)
- Derik Queen (Pelicans): +5000 (The stat-sheet stuffer)
- Cedric Coward (Grizzlies): +10000 (The deep sleeper)
Why the No. 1 Pick Doesn't Always Coast
It’s easy to think the top pick has a head start, but history is actually a bit more complicated. Looking back at the last 20 years, the No. 1 overall pick has only won the award about 40% of the time. Injuries happen. Team situations change. Sometimes a guy like Malcolm Brogdon comes out of nowhere (36th pick!) to steal the trophy because the top of the draft class is struggling with health or efficiency.
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Flagg is currently carrying a massive load for Dallas. He’s playing point-forward, defending the other team's best wing, and being asked to create offense when the stars sit. That leads to tired legs and, occasionally, shooting slumps. We saw him struggle with his finishing at the rim early in the season, though he's mostly fixed that lately.
The "voter fatigue" hasn't set in yet because he's a rookie, but there is a certain "expectations" trap. If Flagg plays like a 19-year-old and Knueppel keeps playing like a 10-year veteran, the narrative could shift back toward Charlotte by March.
Betting Trends to Keep an Eye On
If you're actually looking to place a bet on the NBA rookie of the year odds, you have to look at the "handle" and the "tickets." Interestingly, BetMGM reported that VJ Edgecombe actually holds the highest percentage of tickets (about 21%) and the highest handle (nearly 30%).
What does that mean? It means the public is fading Flagg at -1000. People don't want to tie up their money for six months just to make a tiny profit. They are hunting for the big payday with Edgecombe or Ace Bailey (+50000). The sportsbooks are currently sweating an Edgecombe win because that's where their biggest liability sits.
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What to Watch for in the Second Half
The race usually settles in February. By then, the "rookie wall" hits. This is when the 82-game grind starts to break down the guys who aren't used to the travel. Flagg's conditioning has been praised, but he’s still a teenager.
Watch the Mavericks' injury report. If Dallas decides to "load manage" Flagg to keep him fresh for a playoff run, his total counting stats might drop just enough to give Knueppel or Edgecombe a window. Also, keep an eye on Dylan Harper in San Antonio. He’s stuck behind a crowded backcourt right now, but if the Spurs move some vets at the trade deadline, his +20000 odds could look like a steal if he starts putting up 20 a night next to Wemby.
Actionable Strategy for Betting Markets
If you're tracking these markets, don't just chase the minus-money favorites. The best way to play this is to watch for "buy-low" spots on the secondary favorites after a bad week.
- Monitor Usage Rates: Use sites like Basketball-Reference to see if a rookie's field goal attempts are trending up. More shots usually equals more points, and points win awards.
- Check the Schedule: Look for teams with a lot of national TV games in March and April. Voters are human; they remember the games they actually watched.
- Hedge the Favorite: If you bet Flagg early at -225, you might want to grab a small piece of Knueppel now at +800 to protect yourself against a Flagg injury.
- Avoid Centers: Historically, big men have a harder time winning this award unless they are generational like Wembanyama or KAT. The league is guard and wing-oriented right now.
The race for the 2026 Rookie of the Year is officially a two-man sprint between former teammates, with a pack of hungry long shots waiting for one of them to trip. While Flagg is the "right" answer today, the betting value almost certainly lies elsewhere as the season grinds toward the All-Star break.