Man, the NBA is in a weird spot. We just came off the Victor Wembanyama era of rookie hype, and everyone thought the 2025-26 season might feel like a bit of a letdown. We were wrong. Honestly, the nba rookie of the year nominees list this year is a lot more top-heavy than people expected, and it's basically turned into a high-stakes staring contest between a kid in Dallas and a knockdown shooter in Charlotte.
If you’ve been watching the Mavs lately, you know exactly who I’m talking about. Cooper Flagg is essentially living up to every single ounce of the "generational" tag people slapped on him back in high school.
But it's not a coronation. Not yet.
The Flagg Effect in Dallas
Cooper Flagg is doing things 19-year-olds shouldn't be able to do. Usually, rookies are either good at scoring or they try hard on defense but get lost. Flagg is doing both. He’s currently leading all nba rookie of the year nominees with averages around 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists.
The Mavericks have been banged up. Luka is Luka, but with the roster churning through injuries, Flagg hasn't just been a "nice piece." He’s been a centerpiece. The most terrifying part for the rest of the league? His jumper isn't even fully "there" yet—he's shooting under 30% from three—and he's still dominating games.
His defensive "stocks" (steals + blocks) are where the real money is. He’s averaging 1.3 steals and nearly a block per game. He’s 6’9” but moves like a safety. When he's on the floor, the Mavs' defensive rating stabilizes in a way that’s rare for a freshman.
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Kon Knueppel is Shattering Records
If Flagg is the "chosen one," Kon Knueppel is the guy who decided he didn't care about the script. The Charlotte Hornets got an absolute steal at No. 4. Knueppel isn't just a "rookie shooter." He’s a historic shooter.
On December 22, he became the fastest player in NBA history to reach 100 made three-pointers. He did it in 29 games. Let that sink in.
He’s averaging 19.1 points per game and hitting over 42% of his shots from deep. In Charlotte, where things can get a little chaotic with LaMelo’s health and the general rebuilding vibe, Knueppel has been the ultimate "adult in the room." He’s efficient. He’s smart. He doesn't take bad shots.
- PPG Leader among rookies: Kon Knueppel (19.1)
- Three-point specialist: 42.5% on high volume
- The Vibe: Pure, unadulterated "bucket getter."
People keep saying he's just a specialist, but watch the tape. He’s actually a really decent secondary playmaker. If the voters decide that winning and efficiency matter more than Flagg’s "all-around potential," Knueppel could actually pull this off.
The "What If" Tier: Edgecombe and the Rest
Philadelphia has a gem in V.J. Edgecombe. He’s arguably the best athlete in this entire group of nba rookie of the year nominees. The problem? He’s playing on a team with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George.
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He’s the fourth or fifth option.
When those guys are out, V.J. looks like an All-Star. When they're in, he's a high-energy role player who guards the opposing team's best wing. His "per 36 minutes" numbers are through the roof, but ROY is a total-stats award. It’s hard to win when you’re not taking 18 shots a night.
Then you've got the Pelicans' duo. Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears are basically the future of New Orleans. Queen is a throwback. He’s a skilled big who can actually pass. He’s averaging about 5 assists as a center some weeks. It's weird, it's cool, and it's why the Pelicans are still frisky in the West.
The Dark Horses
- Cedric Coward (Grizzlies): He’s been surprisingly steady. He doesn't have the "flash" of Flagg, but he’s a double-double threat almost every night.
- Dylan Harper (Spurs): Everyone thought he’d be the guy next to Wemby, and he’s been good, but he's often coming off the bench behind Fox and Castle. The talent is Tier 1, but the role is Tier 2.
- Ace Bailey (Jazz): Absolute highlight machine. If the award was for "Best Dunk of the Year," he’d win it today. His consistency is the issue.
Why Flagg is Still the Favorite
Vegas has Flagg at some absurd odds, like -901 or -1000. That’s "don't even bother betting" territory.
Why? Because the NBA media loves a two-way star. Flagg isn't just a scorer. He’s a "winning player" on a team that needs every bit of his production. While Knueppel is a flamethrower, Flagg is the engine.
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There’s also the "eyeball test." When you watch the Mavs play the Nuggets or the Suns, Flagg doesn't look like a rookie. He looks like he belongs in the conversation with the KDs and the Kawhis. That’s something you can't teach.
What to Watch For in the Second Half
The All-Star break is usually when rookies hit "the wall." The travel, the 82-game grind, the scouting reports—it all catches up.
If Knueppel keeps shooting 40%+ through March, the narrative will shift. If Flagg finally finds his three-point stroke, it’s game over. He’ll be the most unanimous ROY since Wemby or LeBron.
Keep an eye on the Pelicans too. If they make a run for a top-6 seed and Queen is starting at center, he might sneak onto some ballots. But realistically? This is a two-man sprint to the finish line.
How to Evaluate the Race
- Look at the usage: Is the rookie the primary option or a passenger?
- Check the efficiency: 20 points on 20 shots isn't impressive. 19 points on 13 shots (Knueppel) is.
- Defensive impact: Does the team fall apart when they sit? (The Flagg metric).
The race for the nba rookie of the year nominees is usually settled by April, but we might know the winner much sooner if Flagg keeps this up.
Next Steps for Fans:
Follow the weekly NBA Rookie Ladder updates to see how the "stocks" of players like V.J. Edgecombe and Dylan Harper fluctuate based on lineup changes. Check the injury reports for the 76ers and Spurs specifically; whenever their veteran stars sit, their rookies' production tends to skyrocket, offering a glimpse of their true ceiling.