Look, everyone knew the 2025-26 season was going to be the Cooper Flagg show. You didn't need to be some cap-space wizard or a scouting savant to see that coming. But honestly? The way it’s actually played out has been way more chaotic than the preseason scripts suggested.
We’re past the midway point of the season now. It’s January 2026. The Dallas Mavericks are basically revolving around a teenager who turned 19 just a few weeks ago. And while the betting odds suggest Flagg has this award in a vice grip, the actual race for rookie of the year nba candidates has some surprising names making life difficult for the No. 1 pick.
It hasn't been a straight line. We’ve seen historic scoring outbursts, weird injuries to top-five picks, and a second-round value play that's making several GMs look like they were sleeping on draft night.
The Maine Event: Why Cooper Flagg is the Heavy Favorite
If you haven't watched a Mavs game lately, you're missing something weird. It’s not just that Cooper Flagg is good; it’s that he’s already "franchise cornerstone" good. On December 15, he went out and dropped 42 points against the Utah Jazz. 42.
That broke LeBron James' record for the most points in a game by an 18-year-old. He’s currently averaging about 18.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. Those aren't "rookie numbers." Those are "All-Star reserve" numbers.
What makes him the leader among all rookie of the year nba candidates isn't just the scoring, though. It’s the defensive "stocks"—steals and blocks. He’s a multi-category monster. He’s already had more 25/5/5 games than the rest of his draft class combined. When he’s on the floor, the Mavs’ defense is statistically significantly better.
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People compare him to a hybrid of Kevin Garnett and Andrei Kirilenko, but with a more modern jumper. He’s currently sitting at -1000 odds at most books. That basically means the experts think there's a 90% chance he’s taking the trophy home.
The Charlotte Sniper: Kon Knueppel’s Sudden Rise
For a hot minute in November, Flagg actually wasn't the favorite. Seriously. Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel—the No. 4 pick who many thought was just a "safe" floor-spacing wing—went on an absolute tear.
Reggie Miller even went on record saying Knueppel is winning ROTY. He’s averaging 19.5 points per game, which actually leads all rookies in scoring as of this week. He’s shooting 48.3% from the field, which is wild for a rookie guard/forward who takes as many threes as he does.
Why Knueppel is Dangerous
- Efficiency: He doesn't waste possessions.
- Role: With injuries in Charlotte, he’s basically been given a permanent green light.
- Clutch Gene: He’s already hit two game-winners this season.
If Flagg misses any significant time with a naggy injury, Knueppel is the guy standing right there to snatch the award. He’s the only other player with odds shorter than 25/1 right now.
The Others: Dylan Harper and V.J. Edgecombe
Down in San Antonio, Dylan Harper is doing Dylan Harper things. He’s playing next to Victor Wembanyama, which is basically like playing NBA 2K on easy mode for a playmaker. Harper’s debut was solid—15 points and 4 boards—but he’s really found his rhythm lately, putting up a 20-8-6 line against the Lakers that had the "Spurs are a dynasty again" crowd losing their minds.
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Then you have V.J. Edgecombe in Philly. He started the year by breaking Allen Iverson’s franchise record for points in a rookie debut with 34. He’s an athletic freak. His dunks are already all over social media, but his consistency has been a bit of a roller coaster. One night he looks like Dwyane Wade; the next night he’s 3-of-14 from the floor.
The Big Man Problem: Derik Queen and the Pelicans
New Orleans caught a lot of flak for trading up to get Derik Queen at No. 13. People thought it was a reach. Well, those people were wrong. Queen has been a walking double-double.
He leads all rookies in blocks (averaging 4.0 per game) and rebounds. He’s an old-school, slick-passing center. Think Zach Randolph but with better rim protection. The problem? The NBA rarely gives Rookie of the Year to "rim protector" types anymore unless they’re named Wembanyama. Queen is a stud, but he’s likely headed for an All-Rookie First Team slot rather than the top trophy.
What Most People Get Wrong About the ROTY Race
Everyone looks at PPG (points per game). It’s the easiest stat to digest. But the voters have gotten smarter over the last five years. They care about "winning impact" and advanced metrics now.
Last year, Stephon Castle won it not just because he scored, but because he was a point-of-attack defender who helped the Spurs actually win games. This year, the "impact" crown belongs to Flagg, but Knueppel’s scoring is so high-volume and high-efficiency that it’s creating a genuine debate in some circles.
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Real Talk on the Long Shots
If you’re looking for a dark horse among rookie of the year nba candidates, keep an eye on Cedric Coward in Memphis. He was the 11th pick but he’s playing like a top-five guy. He’s already had a game with six 3-pointers without a single miss. He’s 22, which means he’s older and more "pro-ready" than the teenagers like Flagg and Bailey.
Speaking of Ace Bailey, he’s been dealing with a left hip flexor strain that cost him a chunk of December. Before that, he was looking like the best pure scorer in the class. If he comes back healthy for the second half of the season and Utah lets him take 20 shots a night, his +50000 odds are going to look very silly.
The Actionable Scouting Report
If you’re following the race for the end-of-season awards, here is how you should evaluate the field going forward:
- Watch the "Usage Rate": Players like Tre Johnson in Washington are on bad teams. They will get stats. But voters are starting to penalize "empty calories" on 15-win teams.
- Monitor the "Stock" Market: Defensive stats (steals + blocks) are Flagg's insurance policy. Even if his shot disappears for a week, his defensive impact keeps him at the top of the Ladder.
- The "Voter Fatigue" factor: It’s not real for rookies, but "Hype Fatigue" is. If Flagg has a mediocre February, the media will desperately try to make Knueppel or Edgecombe a "thing" just for the sake of a narrative.
The reality is that we are witnessing one of the strongest rookie classes in a decade. Whether it's Flagg's historic versatility or Knueppel's elite shooting, the 2026 Rookie of the Year race is proving that the NBA's talent pipeline is arguably deeper than it has ever been.