The NBA MVP race is a mess. Every year we pretend there’s a set formula, but let’s be real: it’s mostly just vibes, narrative, and whatever 100 media members feel like rewarding on a Tuesday in April. Right now, as we hit the middle of January 2026, the nba mvp voting 2025 cycle is entering that weird, high-stakes phase where one bad week can ruin a season's worth of work.
If you look at the betting odds, it seems like a lock. But if you watch the games, it's a war.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the guy everyone is chasing. He’s basically turned the Oklahoma City Thunder into a relentless winning machine. He won it last year, and usually, the voters get a little bored of the same face. Not this time. Shai is putting up 31.9 points per game on some of the most efficient shooting we've seen from a guard in a decade.
The 65-Game Rule is Screwing Everything Up
The biggest story in the nba mvp voting 2025 race isn't even a basketball play. It’s a rule. The league’s 65-game eligibility threshold is absolutely gutting the candidate list.
Take Nikola Jokic. He’s been the best player on the planet for about five years now. He was leading the MVP ladder for months. Then, he hyperextended his left knee. Now? He’s likely going to miss the 65-game cutoff. If he doesn't play 65 games, he can't win. Period. It doesn't matter if he averages a 30-point triple-double. The NBA's "availability is a skill" era has made the MVP race a game of survival.
Jokic is currently sitting at 32 games played. To hit 65, he basically has to be perfect the rest of the way. With a knee injury? Unlikely. This opens the door for Shai to become the first back-to-back winner since Jokic himself (or Giannis, or Steph... you get the point, it happens, but it's hard).
The "Luka in LA" Factor
Then there's the Luka Dončić situation. Honestly, seeing him in a Lakers jersey still feels like a fever dream. He’s leading the league in scoring at 33.4 points per game. He’s doing Luka things—step-back threes that defy physics and passes that make you wonder if he has eyes in the back of his head.
The Lakers are 24-14. They’re good, but are they "MVP winner" good? Usually, you need a top-two seed to secure the trophy. The Lakers are hovering around fourth or fifth in a brutal Western Conference.
Voters are fickle. They love a new story. Luka's story this year is "Can he save the Lakers?" while Shai’s story is "Can he build a dynasty?" Right now, the dynasty narrative is winning.
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Who is the Real Dark Horse?
If you want a name that most people aren't talking about enough, look at Detroit. Yes, the Pistons.
Cade Cunningham has somehow dragged Detroit to the top of the Eastern Conference. He's averaging nearly 27 points and 10 assists. If the Pistons finish with the best record in the East, the nba mvp voting 2025 results are going to look very different than the preseason predictions.
Voters love to reward the "Leap." We saw it with Derrick Rose in 2011. We saw it with Giannis. Cade is having that moment.
Why Jaylen Brown is Surging
The Boston Celtics are always there. They’re like the final boss of the NBA. With Jayson Tatum dealing with an Achilles injury, Jaylen Brown has stepped into the "Number 1" role and hasn't blinked.
He’s jumped to number three on the official Kia MVP Ladder. He’s averaging 29.5 points. More importantly, he’s defending the other team's best player every single night. In a league where "two-way player" is often a buzzword, Brown is actually doing it.
The case for Jaylen is simple:
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- He's the best player on (potentially) the best team.
- His defensive impact is miles ahead of Luka or Jokic.
- He’s playing through the pressure of being the "sole" star in Boston right now.
The Stats That Actually Matter
Let's look at the raw numbers for the top three as of January 2026.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 31.9 PPG, 6.4 APG, 54.5% FG.
Luka Dončić: 33.4 PPG, 8.8 APG, 7.9 RPG.
Cade Cunningham: 26.7 PPG, 9.7 APG, 6.2 RPG.
On paper, Luka wins. But NBA MVP voting has never been a box score competition. If it were, James Harden would have five trophies. It’s about "Winning Shares" and "Advanced Metrics." Shai leads the league in Win Shares (9.2). That tells voters that his points are resulting in more victories than Luka's.
It's sorta unfair, but that’s how the room works.
The Wembanyama Problem
We have to talk about Victor Wembanyama. He’s a freak of nature. He’s leading the DPOY race by a landslide, but he’s also creeping into the MVP conversation.
The Spurs are actually winning games now. "Wemby" is putting up numbers that look like a glitch in NBA 2K. The only thing holding him back is his age and the Spurs' overall record. Most voters aren't ready to give the MVP to a guy whose team might be a play-in squad. But his time is coming. Maybe not for the nba mvp voting 2025 cycle, but 2027? It's his.
How the Media Actually Votes
There are 100 voters. They are mostly writers and broadcasters. They are humans. They get tired. They get influenced by Twitter (or X, whatever).
When a player has a "Signature Moment" on national TV, it carries more weight than three weeks of consistent play in November. Shai has had three of those moments already this season. He hit a game-winner against the Knicks on Christmas. He dropped 46 on the Spurs in an OT thriller.
Luka has the stats. Shai has the moments. Cade has the "Surprise Factor."
What Happens Next?
The trade deadline is coming up. If the Lakers or Thunder make a massive move, it could shift the gravity of the race.
If the Lakers get Luka more help and they go on a 15-game winning streak, he’ll pass Shai. If Jokic comes back and the Nuggets don't lose for a month, the media might find a way to ignore the 65-game rule (though the league won't let them).
Honestly, the nba mvp voting 2025 is Shai’s to lose. He’s playing the most disciplined basketball of his career. He doesn't turn the ball over. He makes his free throws. He wins.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re tracking this race, stop looking at the scoring title. Look at the standings.
- Watch the 65-game tracker. If a player hits 18 missed games, they are dead in the water. Jokic and Embiid are already on the edge.
- Check the "clutch" stats. Voters are obsessed with who finishes games. Shai and Jalen Brunson are currently leading the league in clutch points.
- Ignore the early-season noise. The real voting happens in the last three weeks of March. That’s when the narrative is set in stone.
The race is far from over. A single ankle sprain or a bad shooting slump can flip the script. But for now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sitting on the throne, and it’s going to take something historic from Luka or Cade to knock him off.
Check the injury reports daily. In this new NBA, the healthiest superstar is usually the one who takes home the Michael Jordan Trophy.