Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is doing it again. Honestly, at this point, it feels like the Oklahoma City Thunder guard is playing a different game than everyone else. After snatching his first MVP trophy in 2025 by leading the Thunder to a staggering 68 wins, he’s currently sitting as a heavy favorite to repeat. But if you’ve been watching the nba mvp odds 2026 fluctuate over the last month, you know there’s more to the story than just one guy in OKC.
The betting market is a bit of a wild ride right now. In mid-January 2026, the landscape shifted dramatically when Nikola Jokic—who was neck-and-neck with Shai—went down with a hyperextended knee. That single moment flipped the board.
Now, we’re looking at a race that’s basically a sprint between a reigning champ, a superstar in a new city, and a few "long shots" that aren't actually that long.
The State of the NBA MVP Odds 2026
If you check the books today, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sitting around -350 to -400. That’s a massive implied probability—roughly 80%. He’s averaging nearly 32 points a game on 56% shooting. It’s efficient. It’s clinical. And the Thunder are once again at the top of the Western Conference.
But then there's Luka Doncic.
Luka's move to the Los Angeles Lakers was the biggest story of the offseason. Playing under the bright lights of Crypto.com Arena has done wonders for his narrative, even if the Lakers are a tier below the Thunder in the standings. He's currently +500 to +700 depending on where you look. He’s leading the league in scoring at 33.6 points per game.
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It's the classic MVP debate: do you reward the best player on the best team, or the guy doing the most heavy lifting?
Current Frontrunners and Their Numbers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): 31.9 PPG, 6.4 APG, 4.5 RPG. The "safe" bet.
- Luka Doncic (LAL): 33.6 PPG, 8.7 APG, 6.8 RPG. The statistical monster.
- Cade Cunningham (DET): +1000 to +1600. The surprise of the year. Detroit is actually winning games, sitting at the top of the East, and Cade is the engine.
- Jaylen Brown (BOS): +3300. With Jayson Tatum dealing with injuries, Brown has kept the Celtics afloat, but he’s still a massive underdog.
Why Nikola Jokic Fell Off the Board
It’s weird not seeing the Joker at the top. For five straight years, Nikola Jokic has been the sun that the NBA MVP race orbits around. Before his injury on December 28, he was actually averaging a triple-double: 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists.
Those are "get the trophy ready" numbers.
The problem is the 65-game rule. To win any major award now, players have to suit up for at least 65 games. With Jokic expected to miss several weeks, his eligibility is in serious jeopardy. Most sportsbooks have pulled him off the board entirely or pushed his odds so long they aren't worth the risk. It’s a bummer for purists, but it’s the reality of the modern NBA.
The Victor Wembanyama Wildcard
We have to talk about Wemby. He’s the most polarizing figure in the nba mvp odds 2026 discussion. On one hand, he’s a defensive god. He's averaging 24 points and nearly 3 blocks a game. The San Antonio Spurs have actually surged to the number two seed in the West, which is a massive jump from where they were a year ago.
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However, like Jokic, Wemby is flirting with that 65-game threshold. He’s already missed a handful of games with minor tweaks. If he misses four or five more, he’s out of the running.
Bettors are hesitant. You'll see him at +1400 or "Off the Board" depending on the day. If he stays healthy for the rest of January and February, expect those odds to crash toward the +400 range. He is the only player with the "cool factor" to actually steal votes from Shai.
What the Voters are Thinking
NBA MVP voters are human. They get bored. "Voter fatigue" is a real thing, though it didn't stop Jokic from winning three. Since Shai won last year, there might be a subconscious desire to give it to someone else—maybe Luka for his Lakers turnaround, or Cade Cunningham for reviving a dead franchise in Detroit.
Detroit being the #1 seed in the East (29-10) is the biggest shocker of the 2025-26 season. Cade is putting up 26 and 10. If the Pistons finish with the best record in the league, the "Best Player on the Best Team" logic might actually move from Shai to Cade.
Betting Strategies and Misconceptions
Most people think the MVP goes to the best player. Sorta. It actually goes to the best story that also has the stats to back it up.
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If you're looking at the nba mvp odds 2026 for value, you’ve gotta look past the top two. Shai at -400 is "expensive." You have to bet $400 just to win $100. That’s not great value in mid-January when an ankle sprain can ruin a season.
- Watch the Standings: If the Lakers climb into a top-3 seed, Luka’s +600 odds will vanish.
- The 65-Game Count: Keep a spreadsheet. Seriously. If a guy hits 18 missed games, he's dead in the water.
- The "Lakers Tax": Playing for the Lakers adds a narrative boost. It’s just how it is. Luka has the media's attention in a way he never quite had in Dallas.
What's Next for the MVP Race?
The next six weeks are crucial. We have the All-Star break coming up, and that’s usually when the media "narrative" hardens into cement. If Shai keeps the Thunder at a 65-plus win pace, it’s going to be nearly impossible to take the Michael Jordan Trophy away from him.
But watch the Pistons. If Cade Cunningham leads Detroit to 55+ wins and the East's top seed, he’s going to get a lot of first-place votes from people who want to reward the "new" era.
Keep an eye on the injury reports for Wembanyama and Giannis. Giannis is currently day-to-day with an ankle issue, and the Bucks are struggling at 17-24. Unless Milwaukee goes on a 20-game win streak, Giannis is effectively out of this race.
Actionable Insights for Following the Race:
- Monitor the 65-game eligibility tracker weekly; it’s the most important stat this year.
- Compare odds across multiple books (BetMGM, FanDuel, etc.) as they are reacting differently to the Jokic injury.
- Focus on team seedings; historically, it is very rare for an MVP to come from a team seeded lower than 3rd in their conference.
- Evaluate the "Head-to-Head" matchups; when OKC plays the Lakers or Spurs, the winner of that individual matchup often sees an immediate odds boost.
The race is far from over. While Shai has the pole position, the drama of the 2026 season is just getting started.