If you’re still thinking about the NBA Most Improved Player award as a simple statistical "points per game" jump, you’re basically living in 2015. Honestly, the way we talk about the "leap" has changed. It's not just about some guy on a bad team getting more shots because the veterans left. It's about a shift in gravity.
Last year, we saw Dyson Daniels absolutely hijack the league’s passing lanes to win the 2024-25 trophy. He didn't just score more; he became "The Great Barrier Thief," leading the league with 3.0 steals per game and turning the Atlanta Hawks into a defensive nightmare. But as we sit here in January 2026, the conversation has moved on to a new crop of guys who are making the old "most improved" standards look like child's play.
Why NBA Most Improved Player is the hardest award to predict
The 65-game rule is a total buzzkill for a lot of candidates. You've probably noticed that if a guy misses a month with a bum ankle, he’s basically out of the running. Since the 2023-24 CBA kicked in, you need 20 minutes an appearance for it to even count. It makes the NBA Most Improved Player race a war of attrition as much as a talent show.
Voters also have this weird, unspoken rule about second-year players. They hate giving it to them. The logic is that you’re supposed to get better after your rookie year. That’s why guys like Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren rarely get real traction here, even if they're playing like MVP candidates. They want to see the "Year 3 or 4 Leap." That's the sweet spot.
The Jalen Johnson Revolution in Atlanta
If you haven't been watching the Hawks lately, you're missing the most absurd stat-stuffing season in recent memory. Jalen Johnson is currently averaging something like 23.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. Read that again. Those are basically Nikola Jokic numbers from a 6'9" wing who can jump out of the gym.
Basically, when Trae Young was traded to the Wizards earlier this January, the keys were handed to Johnson. He responded by recording the fastest triple-double in Hawks history. He’s already got 26 double-doubles this season. Most people didn't realize how much of a playmaker he was until the ball was actually in his hands for 35 minutes a night.
Is he the frontrunner? Kinda depends on if you think his jump from 16 points last year to nearly 24 this year is "organic growth" or a "total transformation." To me, it feels like the latter. He’s not just a recipient of dunks anymore; he is the system.
The Cade Cunningham Problem
Cade is a weird case. Can a former number one overall pick actually be the NBA Most Improved Player?
In 2026, he’s currently 12th in the league in scoring at 26.7 points and second in assists at 9.7. He won Player of the Month in November. The Detroit Pistons are actually... good? They're a top-six seed in the East. Usually, that’s where the MIP award goes—to the guy who finally drags his team into the light.
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But Cade was already an All-Star last year. Some voters think once you’ve made an All-Star team, you’ve "arrived," and you can't really win Most Improved. I think that’s a bit of a scam. The jump from "borderline All-Star" to "Top 5 MVP candidate" (which he is right now) is actually much harder than going from 10 to 18 points on a lottery team.
The Deep Cuts: Deni Avdija and Amen Thompson
While the stars get the headlines, the betting markets are obsessed with Deni Avdija in Portland. He’s currently sitting near the top of the odds boards. Why? Because he’s the ultimate "connective tissue" player who finally learned how to shoot. He’s providing that Swiss-army-knife value that voters loved in guys like Boris Diaw back in the day.
Then you have Amen Thompson in Houston. With Fred VanVleet sidelined earlier this season, Amen has been a defensive terror. He’s currently leading the league in rebounding for guards, which is just freakish.
- Amen Thompson: 14.1 PPG / 10.1 RPG (as a guard!)
- Deni Avdija: Career highs in 3P% and usage.
- Matas Buzelis: The rookie who isn't a rookie (well, he is, but he's playing with the poise of a 5-year vet).
What people get wrong about the "Leap"
Most fans look at the box score. They see a guy went from 12 to 20 points and they scream "MIP!"
But look at Jalen Duren in Detroit. His scoring hasn't exploded, but his defensive positioning and screen-setting metrics are through the roof. Or Ryan Rollins in Milwaukee—Doc Rivers basically stumbled into a rotation gem. Rollins leads the league in deflections. That’s the kind of "improvement" that wins games but often loses the award because it doesn't look flashy on a TikTok highlight reel.
The award usually goes to the guy who becomes a "household name" during the season. In 2023 it was Lauri Markkanen. In 2024 it was Tyrese Maxey. In 2025 it was Dyson Daniels. The pattern is clear: be on a team that exceeds expectations and have at least one "signature" stat that jumps off the page.
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The Actionable Takeaway for 2026
If you're tracking the race for the rest of the 2025-26 season, stop looking at the scoring leaders. Start looking at usage rate and on/off splits.
The winner is almost always the player whose team falls apart the second they go to the bench. Right now, that’s Jalen Johnson. If he hits the 65-game mark, the George Mikan Trophy is likely staying in Atlanta for the second year in a row.
Keep an eye on the injury reports for the next three weeks. Since we're halfway through January, this is usually when the "65-game wall" starts to claim its victims. If Cade Cunningham or Jalen Johnson miss more than five or six more games, the race wide opens for a dark horse like Andrew Nembhard or even a resurgent Michael Porter Jr.
Watch the games, not just the box scores. The "leap" is something you feel when a player suddenly starts dictating the terms of the game instead of just reacting to them.