Deni Avdija is currently the heavy favorite. If you had checked the nba most improved player odds back in October, you would’ve seen Amen Thompson sitting pretty at the top. Things change. Fast. Right now, Avdija is essentially lapping the field with odds sitting around -175 to -200 at major books like BetMGM and DraftKings.
He’s doing it in a way that feels sustainable, which is the scary part for anyone holding a ticket on a longshot. He isn't just scoring more; he is living at the free-throw line. It’s kinda wild to look at the numbers and see a guy who was once just a "glue guy" in D.C. now leading the league in total free throw attempts mid-way through January.
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The State of the Race: Avdija vs. Johnson
Most people think this is a two-man race between Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson. Honestly? They’re probably right.
Jalen Johnson is currently the second favorite, hovering around +250. He’s the engine for an Atlanta Hawks team that looks completely different after moving on from Trae Young. Johnson is stuffing the stat sheet with roughly 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists. That’s All-Star territory. The only reason he isn't the runaway favorite is that we already saw glimpses of this last year before he got hurt. Voters are fickle. They want a "leap," not just a healthy version of what we saw ten months ago.
Avdija, on the other hand, feels like a brand-new player in Portland. He’s averaging nearly 10 free throw attempts per game. That is a massive jump in aggression. He’s essentially turned himself into a foul-drawing machine, which is usually the hallmark of a superstar, not a role player.
Mid-Season Odds Snapshot
- Deni Avdija (-175): The clear leader. His efficiency and role in Portland have made him the "safe" bet.
- Jalen Johnson (+250): The high-ceiling play. If Atlanta keeps winning without Trae, his narrative becomes almost unbeatable.
- Keyonte George (+1400): The dark horse. He’s been "cooking" lately in Utah, but the odds reflect a lack of national media attention.
- Amen Thompson (+10000): The early season darling has fallen off. With Kevin Durant now in Houston, Amen’s usage just isn't what it needed to be to sustain those +900 opening odds.
Why the NBA Most Improved Player Odds Are So Volatile
Betting on MIP is basically betting on a narrative. Unlike the MVP race, where the best player usually wins, MIP is about "The Leap."
The criteria for this award shifts every single year. Last season, Dyson Daniels won it at +6600 longshot odds because he became a defensive terror while doubling his scoring. This year, the voters seem focused on guys who have moved from "bench piece" to "franchise cornerstone."
Take Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He went from a backup to basically running the offense and taking 17 shots a night. His odds are still around +4000, which feels like a mistake if you value pure statistical volume. Then you have guys like Austin Reaves. Reaves has had a massive statistical leap, but because he’s a Laker and already "famous," people sort of ignore that he’s actually playing much better than he did in 2024.
What Most People Get Wrong
Voters hate giving this to sophomores. Usually.
It’s expected that a second-year player will get better. That’s why Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson, despite being incredible, are fighting an uphill battle. The "sweet spot" is typically year three or four. Jalen Johnson is in year four. Avdija is in year six, which makes his breakout even more "surprising" to the people holding the ballots.
Looking for Value: The Longshots
If you're looking for a flyer, keep an eye on Anthony Black or Jalen Duren.
Duren’s odds have cratered to +10000 recently because he’s been "M.I.A." in some games, but the physical talent is still there. If he puts together a dominant February, those odds will slash in half overnight.
Keyonte George is another one. He’s currently at +1400, but if Utah decides to fully embrace the youth movement and let him hunt 25 points a night, he’s going to start appearing in every "Discover" feed and Twitter highlight reel. Narrative follows highlights.
Actionable Strategy for Betting the MIP
Don't just look at points per game. Look at usage rate and "Closing Time" minutes.
- Monitor Injuries: Andrew Nembhard was a favorite early because Tyrese Haliburton was out. Now that lineups are stabilizing, his path to high-volume stats is narrowing.
- Watch the Free Throw Rate: As we see with Avdija, voters love players who "play like stars." Drawing fouls is the easiest way to prove you’ve arrived.
- Check the "Vibe" on Reddit and Twitter: This award is decided by media members who spend too much time online. If a player becomes a "League Pass Darling," their odds will inevitably shorten.
The race for the Most Improved Player is far from over. While Deni Avdija has a stranglehold on the lead right now, the second half of the season is where legends—and winning tickets—are made. Keep an eye on the injury reports and the shifting roles in Atlanta and Houston before locking in your final bets.
Check the latest line movements on your preferred sportsbook daily, as a single 40-point game from a guy like Keyonte George can shift the market significantly. Pay attention to the Hawks' record; if they make a playoff push with Jalen Johnson as their best player, he might just snatch this trophy away at the finish line.