It is mid-January 2026, and if you're looking at the standings or the betting lines, the same name keeps popping up like a recurring dream—or a nightmare, depending on who you root for. The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't just the defending champions; they're currently steamrolling through the regular season with a 34-7 record. Honestly, people keep waiting for the "championship hangover" to kick in, but it just hasn't happened. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like he's bored with regular human basketball, and the rest of the league is basically playing for second place right now.
When we talk about nba finals who is winning, we have to look at the massive gap between the Thunder and the rest of the field. Last year, they broke a 46-year drought by taking down the Indiana Pacers in a wild seven-game series. That Game 7 was stressful—103-91 for those who forgot—and it felt like a changing of the guard. Now, in 2026, that "young core" isn't actually young or inexperienced anymore. They're veterans with rings.
The Thunder’s Path to a Repeat
The stats are kinda terrifying if you’re a fan of any other team. OKC currently leads the league in net rating, and they’ve done it while dealing with various injuries to their frontcourt. Remember when folks said Chet Holmgren was too skinny for the postseason? Yeah, he put those rumors to bed during the 2025 run, and this year he’s looking even more comfortable as a secondary playmaker.
Shai is the engine, obviously. He's averaging nearly 31 points a night and doing it with that weird, slithery rhythm that nobody can seem to time. But the real reason they are the favorites to win the 2026 NBA Finals is their defense. They are currently ranked first in defensive efficiency. When you have Jalen Williams and Lu Dort hounding perimeter players, it makes life incredibly difficult for teams like the Knicks or the Nuggets to get into their sets.
- They have the best player in most matchups (SGA).
- Their depth is ridiculous—even their bench players could start on half the teams in the East.
- They have a massive chest of draft picks to trade if they feel like adding a "win-now" veteran before the February 5 deadline.
Who Actually Has a Shot at Stopping Them?
Look, it’s not a done deal. The Denver Nuggets are sitting at 28-13, and Nikola Jokic is still... well, he's still Jokic. He’s currently averaging a double-double in points and assists, which is just stupid when you think about it. Denver pushed OKC to seven games in the second round last year, and they’ve since added some much-needed bench depth. If Jokic is healthy in June, the Nuggets are the biggest threat in the West, period.
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Then you’ve got the San Antonio Spurs. Victor Wembanyama is officially a problem. He’s leading the league in blocks (again) and has the Spurs at 27-13. They’ve actually beaten the Thunder three times already this season. There’s something about Wemby’s length that messes with OKC’s interior passing. It’s probably a year too early for them to win it all, but they are the ultimate "spoiler" team in the bracket.
The Eastern Conference Chaos
Over in the East, things are much messier. The Detroit Pistons—yes, you read that right—are actually leading the conference with a 28-10 record. Cade Cunningham has finally stayed healthy and is looking like the superstar everyone hoped he’d be. They have the second-best defense in the league, which is a total 180 from where this franchise was two years ago.
But if you’re betting on nba finals who is winning from the East, the New York Knicks are still the heavy hitters. They won the NBA Cup earlier this season and have a starting five that can match up with anyone. Jalen Brunson is a wizard, but the real question is Karl-Anthony Towns. Can he stay consistent enough in a physical playoff series? History says it's a toss-up.
Realities of the 2026 Odds
If you look at the current moneyline odds, the books are heavily skewed.
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- Oklahoma City Thunder: +110
- Denver Nuggets: +700
- San Antonio Spurs: +1200
- New York Knicks: +1300
- Detroit Pistons: +1700
- Boston Celtics: +1900
The Celtics are the "forgotten" giants right now. They’ve been hovering around the fourth or fifth seed because Jayson Tatum has been dealing with an Achilles issue. But if he comes back at 100% by April? That +1900 price is going to look like a steal. You never count out a team with that much championship DNA.
Misconceptions About the "Weak" East
There's this narrative going around that the East is a "weak conference" because the Thunder and Nuggets are so dominant. That's kinda lazy. While the top-end talent might be in the West, the East is a meat grinder. Teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers are stuck in the middle of the pack, but they have the star power (Donovan Mitchell and Joel Embiid) to ruin anyone's season in a best-of-seven.
The Houston Rockets are another weird one. They’re sitting at 23-14 and have Kevin Durant now. Watching KD at this stage of his career is fascinating; he’s not the primary "carry" anymore, but as a secondary option next to Alperen Sengun, he’s lethal. They’re a dark horse that nobody wants to see in the first round.
What to Watch Before the Trade Deadline
The trade deadline is February 5, and that’s going to change everything. Word is that Ja Morant might be on the move from Memphis, and Washington just picked up Trae Young. These moves usually don't decide nba finals who is winning directly, but they shift the seeding. Seeding is everything. If the Nuggets can snag the #1 seed away from the Thunder, playing in the altitude of Denver in June is a massive advantage.
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Honestly, the league hasn't been this top-heavy in a while. We have four or five "super teams" and then a huge drop-off. If you’re trying to figure out who is going to be holding the Larry O'Brien trophy in June, you have to ask yourself: who can stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander four times in seven days? Right now, the answer seems to be "nobody."
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you are tracking the race for the title, keep these specific factors on your radar:
- Monitor the SGA/Jokic MVP race: Usually, the player who wins the regular-season MVP has the momentum going into the Finals. Shai is the favorite, but Jokic is lurking.
- Watch the Celtics' injury report: Jayson Tatum’s health is the single biggest "if" in the Eastern Conference. If he's back by March, Boston's odds will skyrocket.
- Check the Thunder's interior defense: Despite their record, they can be vulnerable to massive centers like Valanciunas (Denver) or Embiid. If they don't trade for another big man, that’s their Achilles' heel.
- Don't ignore the Pistons' home record: Detroit is playing out of their minds at Little Caesars Arena. Home-court advantage in the East might actually run through Michigan this year.
The 2026 NBA season is halfway done, and while the Oklahoma City Thunder look like a juggernaut, the history of the league is full of "sure things" that fell apart in May. Between the rise of Wembanyama and the resurgence of the Pistons, the road to the Finals is a lot bumpier than the standings suggest.