Basketball fans are already losing their minds. We’re deep into January 2026, and the chatter about whos playing in the nba finals has shifted from "too early to tell" to "did you see what the Thunder just did?" Honestly, the league feels a bit upside down right now. If you haven't checked the standings in a few weeks, you might be in for a shock.
The defending champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, aren't just coasting. They are destroying people. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—who’s basically playing like a video game character at this point—OKC currently sits at 34-7. That’s an .829 win percentage. For context, that’s historically dominant. Shai is averaging numbers that have him at a 68% implied probability to win MVP again. It’s hard to imagine anyone else coming out of the West, but the NBA has a funny way of ruining "sure things."
The Heavy Hitters in the Western Conference
The West is a shark tank. It always is. But the hierarchy this year is particularly wild because of how young the top teams are. You’ve got the San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama lurking in the three-seed. Wemby is a legitimate two-way superstar now, and the Spurs are actually 3-0 against the Thunder this season. That’s the matchup everyone is terrified of if they’re a Thunder fan.
Then you have Denver. The Nuggets are at 28-13, but there’s a massive asterisk there. Nikola Jokic has been dealing with a "gut-wrenching" knee injury. Without him, they’re just staying afloat. If he’s 100% by June, they are the only team with the veteran poise to actually stop the OKC machine.
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Don't sleep on the Lakers either. They are sitting at 24-14, and even though LeBron James’s All-Star streak is looking a bit shaky this year, his teammate Luka Dončić is leading the league in fan voting. Luka and LeBron together in a playoff series? That’s a nightmare for any coach. It’s basically a toss-up between these four for whos playing in the nba finals from the Western side.
The Eastern Conference Chaos
The East is... weird. Usually, we're talking about the Celtics or the Bucks. But right now? The Detroit Pistons are the number one seed. Yes, you read that right. Cade Cunningham has turned that franchise around, and they currently hold a 28-10 record. They have the second-best defense in the entire NBA.
The Boston Celtics are still there, obviously. They’re 24-15, but they’ve been bitten by the injury bug. Jayson Tatum has been in and out with an Achilles issue, which is always scary. Jaylen Brown has stepped up big time—he’s averaging nearly 26 points a game—but they need Tatum healthy to make it back to the big stage.
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And then there's New York. The Knicks won the NBA Cup earlier this season and have one of the nastiest five-man lineups in basketball. Jalen Brunson is a wizard, but Karl-Anthony Towns has been a bit up and down. If they click, they could easily be the ones representing the East in June.
Real Contenders vs. Pretenders
When we look at the odds for whos playing in the nba finals, the money is speaking loudly.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+110): The undisputed favorites. They have the depth, the defense, and the MVP.
- Denver Nuggets (+700): Dependent entirely on Jokic’s knee.
- San Antonio Spurs (+1200): The "spoiler" team. Wemby can change a series by himself.
- New York Knicks (+1200): The best hope for a "classic" big-market Finals.
- Detroit Pistons (+1700): The dark horse that isn't really a dark horse anymore.
The gap between OKC and the rest of the league is wider than we’ve seen in years. But injuries change everything. Look at what happened to the Pacers last year in the Finals. Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7 against the Thunder. It was devastating. That’s the reality of the NBA—one play can change the entire "who's playing" conversation.
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What to Watch Before the Playoffs
The regular season wraps up on April 12, 2026. After that, we get the Play-In Tournament from April 14-17. The actual NBA Finals are projected to start on June 5.
If you’re trying to figure out whos playing in the nba finals this year, keep an eye on the trade deadline. Houston is currently sitting in the seven-seed out West with Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. There’s a lot of talk that they might move some pieces to get more scoring help. If they land another sniper, they could jump into that top tier of contenders instantly.
Also, watch the Miami Heat. They’re 21-19 right now, but they are the "zombies" of the Eastern Conference. They’ve won five straight against the Celtics. Nobody wants to see Bam Adebayo and Erik Spoelstra in a seven-game series, regardless of their seed.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
The landscape is shifting fast. If you're following the race to the Finals, focus on these three things over the next month:
- Monitor the Jokic Injury: If Denver’s medical staff gives the green light for a full return by March, their +700 odds are a steal. If he lingers on the bench, they're a first-round exit.
- Watch the Pistons' Strength of Schedule: Detroit has played a lot of home games lately. Their upcoming West Coast trip will reveal if they are truly Finals-ready or just beneficiaries of a soft early schedule.
- Check Tatum's Minutes: The Celtics are playing the long game with Jayson Tatum’s Achilles. His "probable" or "questionable" status in mid-season games tells you everything about their confidence for a June run.
The 2026 title is OKC's to lose, but the Spurs and Knicks are closer than the standings suggest. Keep your eyes on the seedings as we hit the All-Star break in Los Angeles next month.