The NBA landscape in early 2026 feels a bit like a "one versus everyone" scenario. If you've looked at the betting boards lately, you've probably noticed a glaring trend. One team isn't just leading the pack; they're basically living in a different zip code. But as the trade deadline looms and health becomes a factor, that "runaway" narrative is starting to feel a little more complicated.
The nba favorite to win championship is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Honestly, it’s not even that close according to the oddsmakers. Most major sportsbooks, including FanDuel and BetMGM, have them sitting at roughly $+110$ to $+115$. To put that in perspective, the next closest team—the Denver Nuggets—is usually hanging around $+700$.
That is a massive gap. It basically means the market thinks OKC is nearly seven times more likely to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy than the second-best team.
The OKC Thunder as the NBA Favorite to Win Championship
Why is everyone so obsessed with the Thunder? Well, they’re the defending champs. They didn't just win in 2025; they dismantled the Indiana Pacers in the Finals and then spent the summer getting better. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the current MVP frontrunner (trading at $+300$ at most spots), and the core of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams is only getting more polished.
But there’s a catch.
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In late 2025, the Thunder were on a historic pace, sitting at $24-1$ at one point. Lately, they’ve looked slightly more human. They went $2-5$ over a rough stretch in early January 2026. They even lost an NBA Cup semifinal to Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, which proved that while they have the best net rating in the league ($+16.7$), they aren't invincible.
Despite those minor stumbles, OKC remains the nba favorite to win championship because of their roster depth. They have a stockpile of draft picks that allows them to be aggressive at the deadline if they feel they need one more piece. But honestly? They might not even need it.
The Western Conference Gauntlet
While OKC sits at the top, the rest of the West is a total dogfight.
- Denver Nuggets ($+700$): Nikola Jokić is still doing Jokić things. He’s leading the league in rebounds ($12.2$) and assists ($11.0$), which is just absurd for a center. They’ve been dealing with injuries to Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson, but when healthy, their starting five is arguably better than OKC's.
- Houston Rockets ($+1300$): This is the surprise of the season. They traded for Kevin Durant in the offseason, and it’s paying off. KD is $37$ now, but his scoring hasn't dipped. Pairing him with Alperen Sengun has given Houston the "go-to" crunch-time offense they lacked last year.
- San Antonio Spurs ($+1200$): Wemby is officially a problem. His odds for Defensive Player of the Year are at $+300$ for a reason. The Spurs' title odds shortened from $+6000$ in November to $+1200$ today. People are terrified of facing them in a seven-game series.
Who is the Eastern Conference Favorite?
The East is a bit of a mess, frankly. The New York Knicks are currently the betting favorites to represent the conference at $+1300$. They recently won the NBA Cup, beating the Spurs in the title game, which gave Jalen Brunson another line on his resume as the best player in the East right now.
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However, the "favorite" tag in the East keeps shifting.
Cleveland started the year as the darling of the conference ($+750$ opening odds), but they’ve slipped to $+2200$ after a sluggish winter. Then you have the Detroit Pistons. Yes, you read that right. The Pistons are actually a factor in 2026, sitting at $+1700$ to win it all. They have the second-best record in the NBA ($21-5$ as of mid-December), but bettors are still skeptical because of their lack of playoff experience.
The Boston Celtics ($+1700$) are the ultimate "what if." Jayson Tatum has been sidelined with an Achilles injury. If he comes back at $100%$ by April, those $+1700$ odds will look like a steal. If he doesn't, they’re likely a second-round exit.
Betting Reality vs. On-Court Reality
When we talk about the nba favorite to win championship, we have to separate "most likely to win" from "best value."
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The Thunder at $+115$ is a tough bet to swallow. There's no upside. If you bet $$100$, you only win $$115$. A lot can go wrong between now and June—a sprained ankle, a bad shooting night, or running into a hot Wemby.
Expert analysts, like those at Doc’s Sports, have pointed out that while OKC deserves to be the favorite, the value might actually be in the Houston Rockets ($+1000$ to $+1300$). Their defense is top-five, and with Durant, they finally have the "gravity" needed to win in the playoffs.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're tracking the title race or looking at the futures market, keep these factors in mind as we head toward the All-Star break:
- Monitor the injury reports for Tatum and Haliburton. The Eastern Conference is wide open. If Tatum returns for Boston or Tyrese Haliburton recovers fully for Indiana, the Knicks' path to the Finals becomes much harder.
- Watch the Spurs' Net Rating. If San Antonio continues to climb into the top five defensively, their odds will plummet. Getting them at $+1200$ now might be the last time they are "plus" money this season.
- Wait for the "OKC Dip." The Thunder are so heavily favored that any two-game losing streak causes a slight "inflation" in their odds. If you really want to bet on the repeat, wait for a week where they look "mortal" to get a slightly better price than $+110$.
- Don't ignore the Pistons. They have the wins to back up the hype. Even if you don't think they win the title, they are a massive threat to win the Eastern Conference at $+400$ or better.
The path to the 2026 title still runs through Oklahoma City. They have the best player in Shai, the best defense, and the most draft capital. But the gap is closing. The Rockets have the star power, the Nuggets have the best individual player in the world, and the Spurs have a seven-foot-four alien who is getting better every single night.
Keep an eye on the February 1st matchup between the Thunder and the Nuggets. It’s the first time they play this season, and it will tell us everything we need to know about whether OKC is truly untouchable.