The energy in Chicago on May 12, 2025, was weird. You could feel it through the TV. Everyone knew what was at stake. We aren't just talking about another rookie class; we’re talking about the "Cooper Flagg sweepstakes."
Honestly, the NBA Draft Lottery 2025 might go down as one of the biggest "what if" moments in modern basketball history. When those ping-pong balls started rattling around in the machine, franchises worth billions were essentially holding their breath. The Dallas Mavericks, a team that technically only had a 1.8% chance to jump to the top, somehow pulled off the impossible.
It was a gut punch for the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards. They spent months at the bottom of the standings only to watch the No. 1 pick slip away.
How the NBA Draft Lottery 2025 Odds Actually Shook Out
The system is designed to prevent "tanking," or at least make it less rewarding. Since 2019, the NBA has flattened the odds. The three worst teams—this year being Utah, Washington, and Charlotte—all shared a 14% chance at the top spot.
But as we saw, 14% is a long way from a guarantee.
If you’re looking at the raw numbers, the New Orleans Pelicans had a 12.5% shot, and the 76ers were sitting at 10.5%. Then you had the Mavericks. They were the long shots. They were the team nobody expected to be on that podium. Seeing Mark Tatum flip that final card to reveal the Mavs logo felt like a glitch in the Matrix.
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The Cooper Flagg Effect
Why was everyone so obsessed? Simple. Cooper Flagg.
He’s not just a "good" prospect. Scouts have been calling him a "better version of Scottie Pippen" for a year now. At 6-foot-9, he’s a defensive monster who can also run your offense. During his time at Duke, he led the team in basically every category: points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. You just don't see that.
There was a moment in the USA Basketball minicamp before the Paris Olympics where Flagg—the only kid there without pro experience—was arguably the best player on the floor against the actual Olympic team. That's when the hype turned into a full-blown frenzy.
The Rutgers Duo: Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey
While everyone was staring at Flagg, two kids at Rutgers were quietly building a case for the No. 2 and No. 3 spots. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are a fascinating study in contrasts.
- Dylan Harper: He’s a 6-foot-6 point guard with a feel for the game that feels decades beyond his age. People compare him to a mix of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson. He's strong, he's patient, and he just knows how to get to his spots.
- Ace Bailey: At 6-foot-10, he’s the high-upside swing. He’s got a seven-foot wingspan and a jump shot that reminds people of Paul George.
The weirdest part? Rutgers was kinda bad last year. It’s rare to see two top-three prospects on the same college team, let alone one that struggled to win. It just shows how top-heavy that roster was.
A Chaotic Night for the Standings
The NBA Draft Lottery 2025 didn't just affect the top of the board. It triggered a massive ripple effect through the mid-lottery because of "conveyed" picks.
Take the Philadelphia 76ers. Their pick was top-6 protected. If it fell to 7th or 8th, it would have gone straight to Oklahoma City. They dodged a massive bullet by landing the No. 3 spot.
On the flip side, the Phoenix Suns saw their pick go to the Houston Rockets because of previous trades. Imagine being a Suns fan and watching a potential top-10 talent like Khaman Maluach or Egor Demin go to a division rival. It’s brutal.
The Final Lottery Order
The actual results shifted the landscape of the league. Here is how the top of the 2025 draft order eventually settled after the lottery:
- Dallas Mavericks (1.8% odds)
- San Antonio Spurs (6.0% odds)
- Philadelphia 76ers (10.5% odds)
- Charlotte Hornets (14.0% odds)
- Utah Jazz (14.0% odds)
- Washington Wizards (14.0% odds)
- New Orleans Pelicans (12.5% odds)
- Brooklyn Nets (9.0% odds)
Why Most People Got the 2025 Class Wrong
Early on, people said this was a "one-man draft." They were wrong. While Flagg is the prize, the depth of the 2025 class is actually insane.
V.J. Edgecombe from Baylor is a human highlight reel. Kon Knueppel, Flagg's teammate at Duke, proved he's one of the best pure shooters we've seen in years. Even international prospects like Noa Essengue from France are showing that the "Wemby effect" is still very much alive in Europe.
We also saw a shift in how teams evaluated "older" prospects. Collin Murray-Boyles, a sophomore from South Carolina, worked his way into the top 10 by being a defensive wrecking ball. Teams are starting to realize that sometimes a 20-year-old with a high motor is safer than a 18-year-old with "potential."
What Happens Next for Your Team
Now that the NBA Draft Lottery 2025 is over, the real work starts. The Draft itself is scheduled for June 25 and 26 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
For teams like the Mavericks, the path is clear: you take Cooper Flagg and you don't look back. But for teams in the middle—like the Raptors or the Nets—the strategy is much more complex. Do you trade up? Do you take a flyer on a high-upside international player like Nolan Traoré?
If you’re a fan, keep an eye on the "early entrant" withdrawal deadline on June 15. That’s the date when college kids have to decide if they’re staying in the draft or going back to school. A few surprise returns to college could thin out the second round very quickly.
The lottery gave us the map, but the draft is where the actual journey begins.
Next Steps for Fans:
- Check the final measurements from the NBA Scouting Combine to see which prospects "grew" or added muscle since the college season ended.
- Monitor trade rumors involving the No. 1 pick; while rare, a team like Dallas might listen to historic offers if they feel Flagg doesn't fit their current timeline.
- Watch highlights of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey to see why Rutgers was the most confusing team in college basketball last year.