The NBA Coach of the Year race is basically a giant game of "who exceeded the Vegas win total by the most." Honestly, it’s rarely about who the actual best coach is—if it were, Erik Spoelstra would have a trophy room full of these things. Instead, it’s a narrative-driven award.
Right now, in mid-January 2026, the narrative has a favorite. J.B. Bickerstaff is currently the man to beat. If you looked at the coach of the year odds nba back in October, you might have seen him at +1100 or even +1400. Now? He’s sitting pretty as the odds-on favorite at +170.
Why? Because the Detroit Pistons are actually winning basketball games. Like, a lot of them.
The Current Favorites and Where the Money is Moving
When the season tipped off, everyone was looking at Jamahl Mosley in Orlando or Ime Udoka in Houston. It made sense. Both teams were young, hungry, and poised for a leap. But the Detroit Pistons decided to skip the "leap" and go straight for a "vault."
J.B. Bickerstaff (+170)
Bickerstaff is doing exactly what Kenny Atkinson did for the Cleveland Cavaliers last year. He took a team that people expected to be "fine" and turned them into a problem for the rest of the Eastern Conference. After a 19-5 start earlier in the winter, Detroit hasn't really let up. They entered the year with a projected win total of 46.5. They are currently on pace to shatter that.
The irony isn't lost on anyone that Bickerstaff was fired by Cleveland, only for Atkinson to win COY with his old roster, and now Bickerstaff is the frontrunner to take the trophy back.
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Mitch Johnson (+350)
The San Antonio Spurs are the most annoying team in the league to play against right now. Victor Wembanyama is a cheat code, sure, but Mitch Johnson has implemented a system that doesn't just rely on "Wemby do something."
He’s jumped from +2200 preseason odds down to +350. Voters love a "changing of the guard" story, and the Spurs returning to relevance after the Popovich era (even though Pop is still looming in the building) is a sexy storyline for the media.
Jordan Ott (+350)
The Phoenix Suns are the biggest surprise in the West. People thought the "Big Three" era was cooked, but Ott has them playing actual defense. You don't often see a coach go from +10000 (yes, 100-to-1) to +350 in three months. That’s the kind of movement that happens when a team leads their division against all odds.
What Actually Wins This Award?
If you want to understand the coach of the year odds nba movement, you have to look at the math voters use. Over the last 15 years, the average COY winner has led their team to about 57 or 58 wins.
But win totals aren't everything. It’s the improvement that matters.
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- Average Win Increase: Winners usually see an 11.9 win jump from the year before.
- The Seed Matters: Since 2011, ten winners have coached the No. 1 seed.
- Vegas Projections: If you don't beat your preseason "Over/Under" by at least 10 games, you probably aren't winning.
Basically, the voters are looking for a "Newness" factor. That's why Mark Daigneault (+3300) isn't winning it this year. The Thunder are incredible, maybe even the best team in the league, but we knew they would be. Success that is expected is rarely rewarded with this specific trophy. It’s an "overachiever" award, plain and simple.
The Sleeper Candidates Nobody is Talking About (Yet)
Odds fluctuate wildly. One three-game losing streak for the Pistons and Bickerstaff’s +170 might balloon back to +400. If you’re looking for value in the coach of the year odds nba market, you have to look for the teams that have an easy schedule coming up in February and March.
Nick Nurse (+2500)
The 76ers have been a rollercoaster. Injuries to Joel Embiid are a constant, but if Nurse manages to keep them in the top three of the East despite missing his MVP for 20+ games, the "doing more with less" narrative starts to kick in. At +2500, he’s a massive longshot, but he’s won it before and knows how to grab headlines.
Chris Finch (+10000)
This is a pure value play. If the Timberwolves somehow snag the 1-seed in a brutal Western Conference, Finch is going to get a lot of looks. The odds reflect a lack of faith in Minnesota’s consistency, but the talent is there.
Why the "First-Year" Narrative is Gold
Look at the history.
2025: Kenny Atkinson (First year in CLE)
2023: Mike Brown (First year in SAC)
2021: Tom Thibodeau (First year in NYK)
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There is a massive bias toward coaches who walk into a room and "fix" things immediately. J.B. Bickerstaff is technically in his second year with Detroit, but this is the first year the roster is actually his. Last year he got them to 44 wins, which was a 30-win improvement. He finished second in voting. Usually, when a guy finishes second one year and keeps the momentum going, the voters feel like they "owe" him the following season.
How to Track These Odds Effectively
If you're following the coach of the year odds nba as the season winds down, keep a close eye on the "Clump." The Western Conference usually has about six teams separated by three games. If one coach—let’s say Ime Udoka—manages to pull his team out of that muck and secure a top-two seed, his current +1900 odds will vanish instantly.
Pay attention to:
- Net Rating: If a team is winning but their net rating is negative, they’ll eventually regress. Voters know this.
- Health: If a coach loses his star player and still wins (the "Erik Spoelstra Special"), his odds will jump.
- National TV Games: Coaches who win "Statement Games" on TNT or ESPN get more "buzz" among the writers who actually cast the ballots.
The race is J.B. Bickerstaff’s to lose right now. He has the record, the "redemption" story, and a young roster that is easy to root for. Unless the Spurs or Suns go on a 15-game winning streak, the Detroit bench boss is likely taking home the Red Auerbach Trophy.
Next Steps for Tracking COY Odds:
- Compare the current win totals of the Pistons, Spurs, and Suns against their preseason projections to see who has the largest "surplus."
- Check the remaining strength of schedule for the top five candidates on Tankathon to see who has the easiest path to a 55-win season.
- Monitor the weekly "NBA Power Rankings" on major outlets, as these often influence the media members who hold COY votes.