If you’ve been paying any attention to the Eastern Conference lately, you know something weird is happening in Detroit. The Pistons—yes, the same franchise that basically lived in the basement for a decade—are currently sitting atop the standings in January 2026. This isn't just a fluke or a hot streak. It’s a total culture shock, and it's exactly why NBA coach of the year nominees discussions are starting and ending with one name: JB Bickerstaff.
Honestly, the Coach of the Year award is kind of a "narrative" trophy. It’s rarely about who the "best" coach is in a vacuum. If it were, Erik Spoelstra would have a closet full of them by now. Instead, the voters love a good "worst-to-first" story or a team that absolutely destroys their preseason win total. This year, we’ve got both.
The Case for JB Bickerstaff and the Detroit Resurgence
Bickerstaff is currently the heavy betting favorite, and for good reason. After being let go by Cleveland—only to see his replacement, Kenny Atkinson, win the award last year—Bickerstaff had a chip on his shoulder. He took a Pistons team that won 14 games two seasons ago and has them playing like legitimate contenders.
What's impressive isn't just the wins. It's the way they're doing it. He's got Cade Cunningham playing at an MVP-fringe level, but more importantly, he’s turned Jaden Ivey and Ron Holland II into defensive menaces.
Voters love redemption. They love seeing a coach get "fired" from a good team only to prove his worth by making a bad team elite. If Detroit stays in the top two in the East, this is basically his award to lose. He’s currently sitting at around +170 odds at most sportsbooks, which tells you everything you need to know about the media's temperature right now.
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The New Blood: Mitch Johnson and Jordan Ott
While Bickerstaff is the chalk pick, two "new" names are making things very interesting in the West.
First, you’ve got Mitch Johnson in San Antonio. Stepping in for the legendary Gregg Popovich is a terrifying task, but Johnson has made it look easy. It helps when you have Victor Wembanyama, obviously, but Johnson’s offensive tweaks have unlocked a version of the Spurs we haven't seen in years. They’re currently the number two seed in the Western Conference. If a first-year head coach takes a young Spurs team to a 55-plus win season, the "successor" narrative might be too strong for voters to ignore.
Then there’s Jordan Ott in Phoenix.
Ott was the trendy "sleeper" pick before the season started.
He’s a disciple of the Kenny Atkinson coaching tree.
He’s brought a modern, high-volume three-point attack to a Suns team that used to be way too dependent on mid-range jumpers.
The Suns look rejuvenated.
Ott is currently tied with Johnson at +350 odds.
Why Mark Daigneault Might Be Too Good for His Own Good
It feels a bit unfair, doesn’t it? Mark Daigneault is the reigning champion coach. His Oklahoma City Thunder are arguably the best team in the league. They might win 65 or 70 games. Yet, his odds for NBA coach of the year nominees have actually dropped recently.
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The problem is expectations. Everyone expected the Thunder to be a juggernaut. When you have the MVP favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner in Chet Holmgren, people start to credit the roster more than the coaching. It’s the "Phil Jackson" problem. To win COY when you're already great, you basically have to break the all-time wins record. Unless OKC hits 73 wins, Daigneault is probably going to be a bridesmaid this year.
Dark Horses and Perennial Bridesmaids
Let’s talk about Erik Spoelstra. He’s the best in the business, yet he’s currently a longshot at +1600. The Heat are doing what the Heat always do: hovering around the 4th or 5th seed with a roster full of undrafted guys who play harder than everyone else. It’s so consistent that we’ve become bored by it.
There's also Joe Mazzulla in Boston. The Celtics lost Jayson Tatum to a brutal Achilles injury, and most people expected them to fall off a cliff. Instead, Mazzulla has kept them in the hunt for a top-three seed. If they finish ahead of Detroit or Milwaukee without their best player, Mazzulla’s "tactical genius" case becomes very loud.
Other names floating around the periphery:
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- Ime Udoka (Rockets): If Houston cracks the top four in the West, he’s a finalist.
- Darko Rajakovic (Raptors): Toronto is the biggest surprise in the North, playing a fun, chaotic style that has them in the playoff mix.
- Jamahl Mosley (Magic): He was the preseason favorite, but injuries to Paolo Banchero have slowed their momentum. If they go on a second-half tear, watch out.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Award
People think the "best coach" wins. They don't. The "most surprising team" wins.
Think back to Mike Brown with the Kings or Tom Thibodeau with the Knicks. The award is a reward for exceeding the Vegas over/under win total. If you want to predict who will be among the final NBA coach of the year nominees, look at the preseason win totals. Detroit was projected at 46.5 wins. If they win 58, Bickerstaff is getting the trophy. San Antonio was projected in the low 40s. If they hit 55, Mitch Johnson is the guy.
How to Track the Race Moving Forward
If you're trying to figure out where the smart money is, ignore the national TV talking heads for a second. Look at the "clutch" stats. Coaches who win this award usually have teams that execute perfectly in the final five minutes of close games. It shows the team is well-drilled and trusts the system.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the updated "Games Above Preseason Projection" stats. This is the single biggest indicator for COY voters.
- Watch the Detroit vs. San Antonio matchups. Head-to-head wins between the top two candidates often sway the media members who hold the ballots.
- Monitor the injury reports for the Celtics. If Mazzulla keeps winning with a depleted roster, his narrative could overtake Bickerstaff’s "turnaround" story by late March.
The race is far from over, but the shift in Detroit is real. Bickerstaff isn't just riding a wave; he built the surfboard.