Betting on a teenager to change a franchise is a special kind of stress. One week they look like the next LeBron, and the next, they’re lost in a defensive rotation like a kid in a grocery store. If you’ve been tracking the current odds for rookie of the year, you know the "locks" usually aren't as safe as the sportsbooks want you to think.
Right now, in January 2026, we’re seeing two very different races in the NBA and NFL. In one league, the favorite has basically sucked the air out of the room. In the other, a late-season surge has turned the betting board upside down.
Cooper Flagg and the NBA’s One-Man Show
Honestly, the NBA race is kind of a foregone conclusion at this point, barring something catastrophic. Cooper Flagg entered the season with the heaviest preseason expectations we've seen in years, and he hasn't just met them—he’s flattened them.
The Dallas Mavericks’ forward currently sits at a staggering -1000 or even -1200 depending on where you shop. To put that in perspective, a $100 bet would only net you about eight bucks in profit. He’s averaging 19.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and over 4 assists a night. But it’s the defense that’s scary. Seeing an 18-year-old rotate with the timing of a ten-year vet is why the odds are where they are.
The Only Name Left in the Rearview
If you’re looking for a "value" play, the list is getting short.
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- Kon Knueppel (+800): For a minute there in November, Knueppel actually jumped Flagg in the odds. It was wild. He’s been a scoring machine for Charlotte, putting up 19 a game on nearly 50% shooting. If Flagg hits a "rookie wall" or misses a chunk of games, Knueppel is the only one within striking distance.
- V.J. Edgecombe (+2500): He broke franchise records for the Sixers in his debut, but he’s struggled with consistency. The talent is massive, but the betting market has cooled on him because he isn't the primary engine of that Philly offense yet.
- Dylan Harper (+20000): The long shots are really long. Harper is playing well for the Spurs, but when you're playing next to Victor Wembanyama, it's hard to grab the spotlight required to win a narrative-driven award.
The NFL OROY Chaos: Tetairoa McMillan’s Late Surge
The NFL is a different beast. Since we’re at the end of the regular season, the odds for rookie of the year have solidified around one name: Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
He’s currently the heavy favorite at -1000. He just cleared the 1,000-yard mark in Week 18 against the Bucs, and in the eyes of most voters, that was the closing argument. But this race was a total mess for three months. Remember when Ashton Jeanty was the +250 favorite back in September? Or when TreVeyon Henderson took over the top spot in December?
The quarterback class didn't quite dominate like years past. Usually, a QB wins this by default if they’re even halfway decent. But Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough spent too much time on the bench or dealing with injuries to catch McMillan’s volume.
NFL Closing Odds Breakdown
| Player | Current/Closing Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | -1000 | 90.9% |
| Jaxson Dart | +900 | 10.0% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | +900 | 10.0% |
| Tyler Shough | +1400 | 6.7% |
It’s worth noting that while McMillan is the "math" favorite, some voters still love the value of a running back like Henderson, who finished with over 900 yards despite a slow start. If you already have a ticket on McMillan, you’re feeling great. If you’re looking to jump in now? The price is basically prohibitive.
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Why the "Sure Thing" Often Fails
We see it every year. A player gets hyped, the odds shorten to a ridiculous level, and then reality sets in. In 2024, Victor Wembanyama was the heavy favorite, but for a solid month, Chet Holmgren actually took over the top spot in the betting markets.
The odds for rookie of the year are as much about "narrative" as they are about stats. To win, a player usually needs:
- Availability: You can't win from the trainer's table.
- Usage: If a rookie is the third option on a good team, they’ll lose to a first option on a bad team every time.
- The "Moment": A 30-point game on national TV in January does more for your odds than three weeks of quiet double-doubles.
For example, look at the MLB 2026 preseason outlook. People are already looking at guys like Trey Yesavage (+200) and Nolan McLean (+340). But pitching prospects are notorious for having their innings capped. A guy could have a 2.50 ERA, but if he only throws 110 innings, the voters might lean toward a hitter who played 150 games.
Betting Strategy for Rookie Markets
If you're looking at these markets for the next cycle, don't buy the preseason hype at a premium. Cooper Flagg is the exception, not the rule. Most years, the best value is found in late November.
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Wait for the first-round picks to struggle—because they will—and look for the guys in the +1500 to +2500 range who are seeing their minutes steadily increase. That’s how people made a killing on guys like Malcolm Brogdon or Scottie Barnes back in the day.
Right now, the smart move isn't chasing Flagg or McMillan at -1000. It’s looking at the 2026 MLB futures or even the early 2026 NFL Draft props. The market is most vulnerable when we have the least amount of data. Once a player hits 1,000 yards or 20 points per game, the house has already won.
Keep an eye on the injury reports and the "rookie wall." For Flagg, the Mavs are in a playoff hunt, which means his minutes might get heavy and his efficiency could dip. For the NFL guys, the season is effectively over, and the ballots are being filled out as we speak.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check the "Betting Splits" on your preferred sportsbook. If you see a massive gap between the "Ticket %" (how many people are betting) and the "Handle %" (how much money is being bet), it tells you where the sharp money is going. If Tetairoa McMillan has 20% of the tickets but 60% of the money, the pros think the race is over. If it's the other way around, the public is just chasing a popular name.