Look, everyone and their mother has already handed the trophy to Cooper Flagg. It’s the easy move. The Duke superstar has been the "next big thing" since he was basically a toddler in Maine, and watching him drop 42 points on Notre Dame earlier this month didn’t exactly dampen the hype. But if you’re actually paying attention to the scouts huddled in the corners of ACC and Big Ten gyms right now, the NBA 2025 mock draft is getting weird. It's not the coronation we expected.
Teams are terrified. Not because the talent is bad—honestly, it’s the opposite—but because the gap between "franchise savior" and "really good starter" is thinner than a piece of Steiner Sports memorabilia.
Why the NBA 2025 Mock Draft Consensus is Crumbling
For about eighteen months, the script was written in stone: Flagg at one, Ace Bailey at two, and everyone else fights for the scraps. Then the actual games started. While Flagg has been statistically ridiculous—he’s currently top-10 in the ACC in almost everything—there’s a growing "grass is greener" sentiment regarding the pure scoring upside of guys like AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson.
Peterson has been a flamethrower at Kansas. When he’s on the floor, the game just looks slow for him. He’s averaging over 22 points, and while his health has been a bit of a rollercoaster, NBA front offices are drooling over his poise. If you’re the Indiana Pacers or the Sacramento Kings—teams currently circling the drain in the standings—do you take the defensive-minded Swiss Army knife in Flagg, or the guy who can give you 30 in his sleep?
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The Rutgers Problem: Ace and Dylan
It is kind of wild that Rutgers has two of the top five picks in most mocks. Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper are basically the entire reason to watch Big Ten basketball this year.
- Ace Bailey: He’s the home run swing. He’ll take a terrible shot, miss it, then fly out of nowhere for a putback dunk that shakes the stanchion.
- Dylan Harper: He’s the high-floor guy. He doesn’t have the elite "twitch," but his footwork is basically a masterclass.
The issue? Rutgers isn't exactly winning a ton. Scouts are starting to wonder if the "empty stats" label is going to stick to these guys if they can’t drag the Scarlet Knights into a deep March run.
The International Wildcards You Aren't Watching
Every year, someone from Europe or the G League Ignite (RIP) jumps into the top five and ruins everyone’s projections. This year, it’s Nolan Traore. The kid is 19 and playing high-level minutes for Saint-Quentin in France.
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He’s a ball-dominant guard who thrives in the open court. His defense is... well, let’s just say "optional" at this point. He gets caught behind screens constantly. But his vision? It’s elite. If a team like the Brooklyn Nets or San Antonio Spurs is looking for a primary creator to pair with their existing bigs, Traore is going to be the name that breaks the NBA 2025 mock draft wide open.
The Rise of Kon Knueppel
Can we talk about Kon Knueppel for a second? Nobody had him as a top-five guy in October. Now? He’s the "safe" pick that every GM in the lottery is secretly hoping falls to them. He’s a brawny 6'6" wing who shoots the lights out. He doesn't look like a typical NBA athlete, but he just produces. He’s the type of player who plays 12 years in the league and makes three All-Star games while nobody notices.
The Top 10 Projection (As of January 2026)
- Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg (PF, Duke)
The Mavs are in a weird spot, but passing on Flagg is a fireable offense. He’s the most well-rounded prospect since Anthony Davis. - San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper (SG, Rutgers)
Pairing Harper’s IQ with Victor Wembanyama? That’s basketball heaven. - Philadelphia 76ers: VJ Edgecombe (SG, Baylor)
Edgecombe is an athletic freak. His three-point shooting climbed to nearly 40% during conference play, making him the perfect "two-way" fit for Philly. - Charlotte Hornets: Kon Knueppel (SF, Duke)
The Hornets need adults in the room. Knueppel is a high-IQ floor spacer who won't make mistakes. - Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey (SF, Rutgers)
Danny Ainge loves upside. Bailey has more "superstar potential" than anyone not named Flagg. - Washington Wizards: Tre Johnson (SG, Texas)
A pure bucket-getter for a team that desperately needs scoring punch. - New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears (PG, Oklahoma)
A late riser who has shown he can run an offense at a high level. - Brooklyn Nets: Egor Demin (PG, BYU)
Size, vision, and a Russian pedigree that NBA scouts have been tracking for years. - Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles (PF, South Carolina)
The Raptors love "long and versatile." Murray-Boyles fits their identity perfectly. - Phoenix Suns: Khaman Maluach (C, Duke)
A 7'2" rim protector who is still incredibly raw but has a ceiling through the roof.
What People Get Wrong About Draft Stock
Draft stock isn't a straight line. It’s a jagged EKG. One bad week in the NCAA tournament can tank a guy’s value, while one "workout of a lifetime" in an empty gym in Las Vegas can move a player up ten spots.
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Take VJ Edgecombe, for instance. Early on, people were worried about his finishing at the rim. He struggled in the half-court. But then he went on a tear in the Big 12, showing off a floater and a runner that nobody knew he had. Suddenly, he’s a lock for the top three.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re trying to stay ahead of the curve on the NBA 2025 mock draft, stop looking at the box scores and start looking at the matchups.
- Watch the January 31st game: BYU vs. Kansas. It’s AJ Dybantsa vs. Darryn Peterson. This is the "marquee scouting game" of the year. The winner of this matchup likely cements themselves as the top guard/wing off the board.
- Track the medicals: Peterson’s cramping issues and health are the biggest red flags in the lottery. If his medical reports come back clean in April, he could jump to #1.
- Value the "Senior" bounce: Guys like Ryan Kalkbrenner (Creighton) are projected in the second round, but with the way NBA teams are valuing "ready now" players (think Dalton Knecht), don't be surprised if a veteran center snuck into the late first round.
The draft is on June 25th and 26th. Between now and then, expect at least three more "consensus" shifts. That’s just how this class works. It's deep, it's talented, and it's incredibly confusing.
Next Steps for Draft Junkies:
Focus your attention on the upcoming conference tournaments. The pressure of "win or go home" reveals more about these freshmen than any mid-December blowout ever could. Specifically, watch how Cooper Flagg handles double-teams in the ACC tournament; his playmaking under duress is the final box he needs to check to stay at the top of every board.