Winning the lottery sounds like a dream until you realize the prize is a giant bullseye on your back and a fanbase that expects you to be the second coming of Michael Jordan. Honestly, being one of the NBA 1 overall picks is probably the most high-stakes job interview on the planet. You’re nineteen. You’ve barely started shaving. Suddenly, you're the "savior" of a billion-dollar franchise that has been losing on purpose just to get you.
Pressure? That's an understatement.
We’ve seen it go both ways. For every LeBron James, there is an Anthony Bennett. For every Tim Duncan, there’s a Greg Oden whose knees just couldn’t keep the promise his talent made. It’s a coin flip with a heavy weight on one side. By the time we hit the 2026 draft cycle, the conversation hasn’t changed; it has just intensified with the sheer amount of data we have now.
The Curse and the Crown of the First Pick
If you look at the history of NBA 1 overall picks, the success rate is actually higher than people think, but the "busts" are so loud they drown out the All-Stars. You’ve got guys like Victor Wembanyama, who basically broke the league's brain the moment he stepped on the floor for the San Antonio Spurs. As of early 2026, he’s already checking off milestones that David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon took years to hit. Wemby isn't just a player; he's a 7-foot-4 glitch in the matrix.
But then you look at 2013. Cleveland took Anthony Bennett. Nobody saw it coming, and unfortunately, it never clicked. He averaged 4.4 points over four seasons. That’s the nightmare scenario. It’s why GMs lose sleep. One bad pick at the top can set a franchise back five years.
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Why do some stars fail?
- Medical Red Flags: Greg Oden (2007) had the talent to be a Hall of Fame center, but his body betrayed him.
- The "Fit" Issue: Sometimes a team drafts for a position they don't need or into a system that suffocates the kid’s natural game.
- Mental Fortitude: Some guys just aren't built for the 82-game grind and the social media vitriol that comes with a 2-for-12 shooting night.
The New Era: From Flagg to Peterson
Right now, the hype is shifting toward the next wave. In the 2025 draft, Cooper Flagg was the name everyone screamed about. The Dallas Mavericks—in a post-Luka-trade world that felt like a fever dream—landed him, and the expectations are already through the roof. Flagg is that rare "do-it-all" wing, the kind of player who makes the game look stupidly easy.
Looking ahead to 2026, the race for the top is a three-headed monster. You’ve got Darryn Peterson out of Kansas, who's basically a walking bucket. Then there’s AJ Dybantsa at BYU and Cameron Boozer (yeah, Carlos Boozer’s kid) at Duke. These aren't just prospects. They are brands.
The weird thing about the NBA 1 overall picks in the mid-2020s is how fast they have to be "good." In the 90s, you could be a project. Now? If you aren't putting up 18 and 8 by Christmas of your rookie year, the "bust" labels start flying on TikTok. It's brutal.
Realities of the "Guaranteed" Superstar
Does the first pick actually guarantee an MVP? Not really. Only eleven number one picks have ever won the MVP award. Names like Kareem, Magic, Shaq, and LeBron. That’s elite company. Most guys end up being "just" very good. Deandre Ayton (2018) is a great example. He’s a double-double machine and a solid starter, but when you see Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—who went after him—playing like MVP candidates, the "what if" game becomes a permanent shadow.
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Markelle Fultz is another one that hurts to talk about. The 76ers traded up for him in 2017. Between the "yips" and a shoulder injury called thoracic outlet syndrome, he never became the superstar Philly envisioned. He carved out a respectable career later in Orlando, but as a top pick? It’s hard not to call it a disappointment compared to Jayson Tatum.
How the Lottery Changes Everything
The NBA changed the lottery odds a few years ago to stop teams from "tanking" so hard, but let's be real—if a guy like Wembanyama or Flagg is on the board, teams will find a way to lose. The incentive is just too high. A single player can increase a team's valuation by hundreds of millions of dollars.
Think about the jerseys, the national TV spots, and the season ticket sales. When the Spurs got Wemby, their business side exploded before he even played a minute of summer league. That’s the power of the top spot.
Recent 1st Overall Picks (2020-2025)
- 2020: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) - An absolute home run. "Ant-Man" is the face of the league now.
- 2021: Cade Cunningham (Pistons) - High IQ, great size, but stuck on some truly struggling rosters.
- 2022: Paolo Banchero (Magic) - A beast. Immediate impact, Rookie of the Year, and led Orlando back to relevance.
- 2023: Victor Wembanyama (Spurs) - The alien. The most hyped prospect since LeBron, and he actually lived up to it.
- 2024: Zaccharie Risacher (Hawks) - A polarizing pick in a "weak" draft, showing that being #1 is sometimes about timing more than being a generational talent.
- 2025: Cooper Flagg (Mavericks) - The current "IT" guy expected to carry the mantle of the modern American superstar.
Actionable Insights for the Hardcore Fan
If you're following the draft or playing dynasty fantasy leagues, don't just look at the scoring averages. The history of NBA 1 overall picks tells us that "floor" matters just as much as "ceiling."
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Watch the injury history. If a guy is 7-foot-plus and already has foot issues in college (looking at you, Chet Holmgren and Joel Embiid types), the risk is massive.
Look at the situation. A great player drafted by a dysfunctional front office (sorry, Charlotte and Detroit fans) usually takes longer to bloom. Context is king.
Don't overreact to Summer League. Remember when Trae Young couldn't hit a shot in July? Or when Kevin Durant looked "too skinny" to bench press 185 pounds? The first 20 games of the actual season tell the real story.
Keep an eye on the 2026 mock drafts as the college season winds down. The names will shift, and someone like Darryn Peterson might solidify that top spot, but the pressure will remain exactly the same. It's a heavy crown to wear.
To stay ahead of the next draft cycle, start tracking the "Usage Rate" of top college freshmen. Players who maintain high efficiency while being the primary focus of opposing defenses, like Cameron Boozer at Duke, are the ones most likely to translate their game to the pros without the "bust" label following them into November.