You've probably seen the videos. Rows of thousands of men, heads shaved, white shorts, huddled together in a massive concrete fortress. It’s the kind of image that stops your thumb mid-scroll. That place is the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT), and the man behind it, Nayib Bukele, has basically turned El Salvador from the "murder capital of the world" into a global case study on power and security.
Honestly, it’s hard to overstate how much things have changed. Just a few years ago, gangs like MS-13 and Barrio 18 didn't just live in Salvadoran neighborhoods; they owned them. They decided who could walk to the corner store and which kids went to school. Today, those same streets are filled with families eating pupusas at midnight.
But here’s the thing: that peace came with a massive price tag that isn't just about money.
The Security Miracle (and the "State of Exception")
When people talk about Nayib Bukele, they usually start with the numbers. In 2018, the year before he took office, the homicide rate was around 53 per 100,000 people. By 2024, the government reported that number plummeted to 1.9. That is a staggering, almost unbelievable drop.
How did he do it?
Basically, he stopped playing by the old rules. In March 2022, after a particularly bloody weekend where 87 people were killed, Bukele declared a "state of exception." It was supposed to be temporary. Instead, it’s been renewed dozens of times and is still in effect as of early 2026.
This policy gives the police almost total power. They can arrest anyone they suspect of being in a gang without a warrant. You don't get a lawyer right away. You don't even necessarily get a trial for a long time. So far, over 85,000 people have been locked up. That’s roughly 1% of the entire population.
It’s effective. It’s also terrifying if you’re one of the thousands of "innocents" caught in the dragnet. In late 2024, Bukele himself admitted that about 7,000 to 8,000 people had been released after being wrongly detained. Think about that for a second. Thousands of people sat in those mega-prisons for months, or years, for doing absolutely nothing.
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Exporting the Model
What’s wild is that other countries are now trying to copy-paste this strategy. Just this month, in January 2026, Bukele was in Costa Rica to help inaugurate a new maximum-security prison. Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves is looking at El Salvador’s "Iron Fist" (Mano Dura) approach as a blueprint for his own country’s rising crime rates.
Bukele isn't just a president anymore; he’s a brand. He’s the "World’s Coolest Dictator" (his own words, sarcastically used in his Twitter bio). He wears a leather jacket, backwards caps, and manages his entire country via X (formerly Twitter).
The Bitcoin Gamble: Where Are We Now?
You can’t talk about Nayib Bukele without talking about Bitcoin. In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to make it legal tender. It was a massive headline-grabber, but the reality on the ground is... complicated.
If you walk through San Salvador today, you’ll see the "Chivo" ATMs, but you won't see many locals using them for their daily eggs and milk. Most people still prefer the US Dollar (which El Salvador has used since 2001).
Despite the skepticism from the IMF and the World Bank, Bukele is doubling down. The National Bitcoin Office recently announced that the government will continue investing in Bitcoin and even AI through 2026. As of now, the country holds over 7,500 BTC in its reserves.
- The Pro-Bitcoin View: It’s about financial freedom. It attracts tech tourists and "Bitcoin bros" who bring foreign investment.
- The Skeptic View: It’s a volatile waste of taxpayer money. The IMF is currently pressuring El Salvador to scale back its "Chivo" wallet operations as part of a multi-million dollar loan deal.
The government is trying to pivot. They’re now pitching El Salvador as a tech hub, not just a crypto experiment. There's talk of "Bitcoin City" powered by a volcano, though that project feels more like a 3D-rendered dream than a construction site right now.
The Economic Elephant in the Room
Here is the part most of the "fanboy" YouTube videos skip over: the economy is struggling.
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While the streets are safer, they aren't necessarily wealthier. Extreme poverty actually increased between 2023 and 2024. According to the World Bank, the number of people living in extreme poverty jumped by over 3%, reaching more than 600,000 people.
It turns out that arresting all the criminals stops the killing, but it doesn't automatically create jobs. The "Security Miracle" hasn't yet translated into an "Economic Miracle." El Salvador’s growth is projected to be among the lowest in Central America for 2026.
Bukele’s big bet for his second term (which he won in a landslide in 2024, despite the constitution technically saying you can't run for back-to-back terms) is that safety will eventually lead to prosperity. He’s betting that if people feel safe, they’ll open businesses, and if tourists feel safe, they’ll spend money.
He’s not entirely wrong. Tourism is up. The US State Department even downgraded its travel advisory because the gang threat has vanished from the tourist zones. But for the average Salvadoran living on a few dollars a day, the price of beans and tortillas matters a lot more than the price of Bitcoin.
Why People Still Love Him
If you look at the polls, Bukele is consistently one of the most popular leaders in the world. How does a guy who bypasses the constitution and locks up 1% of his people stay so popular?
It’s simple. He solved the one problem no one else could.
For thirty years, Salvadorans lived in a state of constant war. If you lived in a gang-controlled "colonia," you paid "rent" (extortion) just to keep your front door open. If your son didn't join the gang, he disappeared. If your daughter was "noticed" by a gang leader, you moved cities overnight.
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Bukele didn't just reduce crime; he deleted the gangs from daily life. For a mother who can finally let her kids play in the park after dark, "democratic norms" and "judicial independence" feel like abstract concepts compared to the reality of not being murdered.
The Future of El Salvador
So, what’s next?
The 2026 budget shows a government trying to tighten its belt while keeping the security apparatus running. There's a massive focus on digital infrastructure. Bukele is even looking into "outsourcing" prison space to other countries to generate revenue—essentially turning his security successes into a business model.
But the risks are real.
- Debt: The country owes a lot of money, and the Bitcoin experiment hasn't fixed the balance sheet.
- Human Rights: International organizations like Human Rights Watch continue to document "systematic torture" and deaths in custody.
- Succession: Everything in El Salvador now revolves around one man. If Bukele were to leave, would the system collapse?
Actionable Takeaways for Following the Story
If you’re watching El Salvador to see if this "New Model" actually works long-term, keep an eye on these three indicators:
- The IMF Negotiations: If Bukele reaches a final deal with the IMF, it usually means he’s had to give up some of his Bitcoin ambitions in exchange for financial stability.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Safety is great, but big companies need "Rule of Law." Watch to see if major non-crypto companies actually start building factories or offices in San Salvador.
- The "State of Exception" Status: If the government finally lifts the emergency measures, it will be the ultimate test. Can El Salvador stay safe without the ability to arrest anyone at any time?
Nayib Bukele has proven that you can fix security with enough political will and a massive amount of force. The question for 2026 and beyond is whether he can build a country that is not just safe, but free and prosperous enough to survive without him.