Baseball is a cruel game. Just ask any fan who spent the final week of September 2025 glued to a scoreboard while their team’s playoff life hung by a thread. The national wild card standings aren't just a list of wins and losses; they’re a chaotic, high-stakes game of musical chairs where the music stops right when your best starter is on the IL.
Honestly, the way the National League played out last year was sort of a fever dream. We had the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres basically cruising into those top two Wild Card spots, while the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds were left in a literal street fight for that final 6-seed. They both finished 83-79. Think about that. 162 games and it came down to a tiebreaker because nobody wanted to go home.
The Math Behind the National Wild Card Standings
You’ve probably noticed that the Wild Card isn't what it used to be. It’s bigger. It's louder. Since 2022, Major League Baseball has been running with three Wild Card teams in each league. This means six teams from the National League and six from the American League make the cut.
The seeding works like this:
- Seeds 1 and 2: The two division winners with the best records. They get a week off. They get to sit on the couch and watch everyone else sweat.
- Seed 3: The division winner with the worst record of the three. Even if they have a better record than the Wild Cards, they don't get the bye.
- Seeds 4, 5, and 6: These are your Wild Cards.
The 4-seed hosts the 5-seed for all three games of a best-of-three series. Meanwhile, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed. It’s brutal. You play three days in a row in the same city. If you're the 6-seed, you're basically walking into a buzzsaw on the road.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the 6-Seed
There’s this weird myth that you just want to "get in." While that’s technically true, the national wild card standings show a massive disadvantage for the bottom dwellers. In the 2025 postseason, the Cincinnati Reds managed to snag that 6-seed over the Mets via tiebreakers. Their reward? A trip to Los Angeles to face a Dodgers team that had Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto waiting.
It wasn't pretty. The Dodgers took Game 1 with a 10-5 blowout. The Reds fought back in Game 2, but LAD closed it out 8-4.
The reality is that the 6-seed often enters the postseason with an exhausted bullpen. When you're fighting for your life in the standings until the final Sunday of the season, you can't exactly "manage" your rotation for October. You're throwing your ace on Friday just to ensure you have a Saturday. By the time the Wild Card series starts on Tuesday, you're starting your number three or four guy.
The 2025 National League Collapse and Chaos
The Phillies were the class of the NL East last year, finishing with a 96-66 record. That left the Mets and Marlins scrambling. The Marlins actually stayed in it longer than anyone expected before falling off in the final two weeks.
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The real story was the NL Central. The Milwaukee Brewers absolutely dominated that division with 97 wins. Because the Phillies and Brewers took the top seeds, the Dodgers—despite winning 93 games—were forced into the 3-seed spot. That's the quirk of the system. You win your division, but if two other division winners are better, you’re playing in the Wild Card round.
Final 2025 National League Wild Card Snapshot
- Chicago Cubs: 92-70 (4-seed)
- San Diego Padres: 90-72 (5-seed)
- Cincinnati Reds: 83-79 (6-seed)
- New York Mets: 83-79 (Eliminated)
The Mets had the talent. They had the payroll. But they lost a crucial late-season series to the Phillies that basically sealed their fate. It’s those head-to-head matchups that matter most now because Game 163 is dead. All ties are broken by the season series record. If you didn't beat the team you're tied with back in May, you're out in September.
Why the Standings Change Everything for the Trade Deadline
If you're a GM, the national wild card standings are your North Star. Because there are more spots available, more teams think they’re "in it" at the end of July. This has kind of ruined the traditional "fire sale."
Teams that are five games out of a Wild Card spot aren't selling their star players anymore. They're buying. This creates a massive bubble where mediocre teams overpay for middle-relief pitchers. We saw it with the Giants last year. They were hovering around .500 and decided to hold steady instead of moving pieces. They finished 81-81. Two games out. No playoffs, and no refreshed farm system.
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It’s a gamble. The new format rewards mediocrity during the regular season but punishes it the second the playoffs start.
The Strategy of the Bye Week
There is a legitimate debate among baseball nerds about whether the "Bye" is actually good. The 1 and 2 seeds get five days off. In baseball, rhythm is everything. If a hitter doesn't see live pitching for five days, his timing can go south fast.
In 2025, the Phillies had that bye. They came out flat against the Dodgers in the NLDS and never really recovered. Los Angeles, having just played the Reds, was "hot." They had the momentum.
Actionable Insights for Following the Race
If you want to actually track the national wild card standings like a pro, stop looking at "Games Behind." It’s a deceptive stat. Instead, look at the "Loss Column."
Teams can make up games played, but they can't un-lose a game. If the Padres have 70 losses and the Mets have 74, the Mets have to hope the Padres lose four more games than they do over the rest of the season. That's a massive mountain to climb.
- Check the Tiebreakers Early: Go to the MLB website and see who won the season series. If the Cubs own the tiebreaker over the Reds, they effectively have a one-game lead that doesn't show up in the standings.
- Strength of Schedule: The NL East is traditionally a gauntlet. If a Wild Card hopeful has 10 games left against the Phillies or Braves, their "three games back" status is actually much worse than it looks.
- Pitching Rotations: Look at who is scheduled to pitch in the final three days of the season. If a team has to burn their ace on Game 162 to get in, they are almost guaranteed to lose Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.
The chase for October is less about being the best team and more about being the healthiest team at the exact right moment. One bad slide into second base in mid-September can shift the entire National League landscape. Keep your eyes on the loss column and ignore the hype.