January usually feels like a dead zone for baseball fans, but honestly, looking at the current national league standings in this weird bridge between the 2025 fallout and the 2026 start, things are getting kinda chaotic. We aren't seeing 0-0 records as just a blank slate. They’re a countdown. Right now, the Philadelphia Phillies are sitting at the top of the heap in the East based on their 96-win demolition of the division last year, but the landscape is shifting under their feet. If you’ve been paying attention to the winter meetings and the waiver wire, you know that being first in January means absolutely nothing once the first pitch of Spring Training is thrown.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are, as usual, the giant everyone is trying to slay. They finished 2025 with 93 wins, barely holding off a surging San Diego Padres squad. It’s a recurring theme. The West is a meat grinder. Meanwhile, the Central is basically a coin flip between Milwaukee and Chicago, with the Brewers coming off a 97-win season that shocked almost everyone who wasn’t wearing a cheesehead.
The NL East Power Struggle
Philadelphia ruled the East last year. 96 wins. A plus-130 run differential. They were an absolute machine at Citizens Bank Park, going 55-26. But the national league standings tell a story of a division that’s rapidly catching up. The New York Mets finished 13 games back in 2025, but they’ve been aggressive—and frankly, a little desperate—in the offseason. They lost Pete Alonso to the Orioles, which is a massive blow to their identity, but they’ve pivoted to a more defensive-minded infield by snagging Marcus Semien.
It’s a gamble. You’re trading 40-homer potential for stability and glove-work.
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The Atlanta Braves are the real wildcard here. They finished 2025 below .500 (76-86), which feels like a glitch in the simulation. Injuries decimated them. But with a healthy rotation and a chip on their shoulder, they are projected to jump back into the mid-90s win column for 2026. If the Braves return to form, the Phillies aren’t just cruising to another division title; they’re entering a dogfight.
Chaos in the NL Central
If you want stability, don't look at the Central. The Milwaukee Brewers dominated with 97 wins last season, while the Cubs stayed relevant with 92. It was a two-horse race that left the Cardinals and Pirates in the dust. But 2026 projections are already suggesting a regression for Milwaukee. They’ve been labeled "offseason losers" by several analysts after losing key bullpen pieces like Devin Williams to the Mets.
- Milwaukee Brewers: Coming off a massive 97-65 season but facing a talent drain.
- Chicago Cubs: Finished 92-70; they have the farm depth to make a mid-season move that could tip the scales.
- Cincinnati Reds: The 83-win sleepers. They were the last team to clinch a playoff spot in 2025 and haven't done much since, but their young core is another year older.
The Cardinals? They’re in a weird spot. 78 wins isn't "St. Louis baseball," but they haven't made the big splash fans wanted. They lost Sonny Gray to the Red Sox, leaving a hole in the rotation that hasn't been filled by anyone of the same caliber. It feels like a rebuilding year disguised as a "retooling" year.
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The NL West: A Two-Team Dynasty?
The national league standings in the West usually start and end with the Dodgers. 93 wins last year was actually a "down" year for them by their absurd standards. But they just signed Kyle Tucker. Let that sink in. They added one of the best all-around outfielders in the game to a lineup that already feels like an All-Star roster. It’s almost unfair.
San Diego isn't blinking, though. They won 90 games last year and finished only three games back. They lost Dylan Cease to Toronto, which hurts the top of the rotation, but their aggressive front office usually has a Plan B in the works before the ink is dry on the Plan A failure.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants are stuck in the middle. Both hovered around .500 last year. The Giants hired Tony Vitello away from the college ranks to manage, hoping some of that "Vols energy" translates to the big leagues. It’s a bold move. It’s also a move that suggests the roster isn't enough on its own, and they need a culture shift to compete with the payrolls in LA and San Diego.
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Realities of the Wild Card Race
The race for the Wild Card is where the national league standings get truly messy. Last year, the Cubs, Padres, and Reds grabbed those spots. This year, the Mets and Braves are going to be clawing for those same positions if they can’t overtake the Phillies.
- The Mets Factor: Losing Alonso is huge, but adding Marcus Semien and Devin Williams fixes two major holes (defense and the 9th inning).
- The Marlins: They finished 79-83. They’re scrappy. They won't win the division, but they are the team that ruins your season in late September.
- The Rockies: 43 wins. 119 losses. A minus-424 run differential. There is nowhere to go but up, but "up" might just mean winning 60 games.
What to Watch Before Opening Day
As we sit here in mid-January, the rosters are about 85% set. The remaining free agents are mostly veteran role players and "lottery ticket" pitchers. If you're looking at the national league standings and wondering who the biggest riser will be, keep an eye on the Atlanta Braves. Their 2025 was an anomaly. Every projection model, from Steamer to ZiPS, has them bouncing back in a big way.
On the flip side, the Brewers are the prime candidate for a slide. Winning 97 games requires a lot of things to go right, and after losing their closer and several key arms, that 97 looks like a ceiling they won't hit again.
To get the most out of the upcoming season, start tracking the "Expected Win/Loss" (x-W/L) records from last year. The Mets actually played like an 86-win team but only won 83. The Braves played like an 80-win team despite their 76-win finish. These small margins are exactly where division titles are won and lost in April and May. Keep your eyes on the spring training injury reports—those are the only things that can derail the Dodgers' inevitable march toward another 100-win season.
Check the updated depth charts on FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference as we head into February. Rosters will shift one last time before pitchers and catchers report, and that’s when the "real" 2026 standings begin to take shape.