Betting on baseball rookies is basically like trying to predict the weather in April. One day it’s sunny and your sleeper pick hits two homers; the next, he’s back in Triple-A because he can’t hit a slider. But here we are in January 2026, and the board for national league rookie of the year odds is already looking like a high-stakes chess match.
If you followed the 2025 race, you saw Drake Baldwin come out of nowhere. Seriously. He wasn't even on the radar for most of the big industry polls last winter, yet he ended up taking home the hardware for the Braves with 21 first-place votes. It just goes to show that the preseason favorites aren't always the guys standing on the podium in November.
Right now, the spotlight is firmly on Queens.
The Current Favorites and the Mets' New Ace
Nolan McLean is currently sitting at the top of the heap. Most books have him hovering around +340, which gives him a pretty solid 22.7% implied probability of winning. It’s not hard to see why the market loves him. Last year, he gave the Mets a "teaser trailer" of what he can do, posting a 2.06 ERA over eight starts. He struck out 57 guys in just 48 innings. That kind of swing-and-miss stuff is exactly what voters crave.
But he isn't alone at the top.
Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart is right on his heels at +500. Stewart is a different kind of animal—a versatile infielder who actually looks like he belongs in a big-league batter's box. He didn't just survive his late-season call-up in 2025; he thrived. If the Reds give him an everyday spot at first or third, his counting stats could easily dwarf a pitcher’s impact.
Breaking Down the Top Tier
- Nolan McLean (NYM): +340 – The strikeout upside is terrifying. If he stays healthy and stays in that rotation, he’s the man to beat.
- Sal Stewart (CIN): +500 – A pure hitter’s profile. He has the plate discipline that usually takes rookies three years to learn.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL): +700 – The Cardinals are rebuilding, and Wetherholt is the cornerstone. He slashed .306 in the minors last year and has elite contact skills.
- Bubba Chandler (PIT): +700 – The Pirates just keep churning out arms. Chandler has triple-digit heat and a four-pitch mix that makes scouts drool.
- Moises Ballesteros (CHC): +800 – A catcher who can actually hit? That's a unicorn. If he gets enough DH time to keep his legs fresh, he’s a massive threat.
The Konnor Griffin Factor
You can't talk about national league rookie of the year odds without mentioning Konnor Griffin. He’s currently sitting at +1400, and honestly, that feels like a "buy" for a lot of people. He is widely considered the best overall prospect in baseball right now.
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The catch? We don't know if the Pirates will actually let him break camp with the team.
In 2024, we saw Paul Skenes dominate this award for Pittsburgh, and the Pirates might be tempted to follow a similar slow-burn path with Griffin. However, if he has a monster Spring Training and forces their hand, those +1400 odds are going to evaporate by mid-March. He’s a true five-tool talent. We're talking 30-30 potential if everything clicks.
Why Pitchers Face an Uphill Battle
Historically, hitters have a slight edge in this race. Look at 2025—Drake Baldwin (a catcher) beat out Cade Horton. Even though Horton was spectacular for the Cubs with a 2.67 ERA, the voters often lean toward the guy playing every day.
Pitchers are on "pitch counts" and "innings limits" these days. It sucks for fans, but it’s the reality of the modern game. A guy like Nolan McLean might only throw 130 innings. Meanwhile, a hitter like Justin Crawford—who is currently +1000—could play 150 games and steal 40 bases.
Crawford is a name to watch in Philadelphia. He’s been hitting over .300 at every level of the minors. If he wins the centerfield job in Spring Training, he could be the 2026 version of Corbin Carroll.
The Longshots Worth a Look
If you’re the type of person who likes to sprinkle a few bucks on a dark horse, there are some intriguing names further down the list.
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Take Bryce Eldridge for the San Francisco Giants. He’s at +1300 right now. At 6'7", he is a massive human being with left-handed power that could play well even in the chilly air of Oracle Park. He got a tiny cup of coffee last September and didn't look overmatched.
Then there’s Andrew Painter. Remember him? He was the "next big thing" for the Phillies before injuries derailed him. He’s at +3000 currently. If he’s truly back to 100%, that price is insane. But that "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
How the Odds Shift During Spring Training
Expect total chaos in February.
Rookie of the Year markets are incredibly sensitive to roster news. Last year, the market for the NL was "complete chaos" according to many analysts. There were eight different favorites between January and October.
If a guy like Quinn Mathews (+3300) wins the fifth starter spot for the Cardinals, his odds will plummet to +1500 overnight. On the flip side, if a favorite like Sal Stewart starts the season 0-for-20 in Grapefruit League play, you might see his price drift.
What to watch for:
- Service Time Manipulation: Does a team keep their star prospect down for three weeks to gain an extra year of control? (The new CBA has made this harder, but teams still try).
- Injuries to Veterans: An injury to a starter in March often opens the door for a rookie who wasn't supposed to debut until June.
- Spring Velocity: For guys like Bubba Chandler or Jonah Tong (+2000), if the radar gun is consistently showing an extra 2 mph, the hype train leaves the station fast.
Actionable Strategy for Betting NL ROY
If you're looking to get involved in the national league rookie of the year odds market, don't put all your eggs in one basket.
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The smart move is often to wait until the final week of Spring Training when Opening Day rosters are mostly set. You lose some of the "longshot" value, but you gain the certainty that your player is actually on the 26-man roster.
Focus on volume. Look for guys who play premium positions (Shortstop, Catcher, Centerfield) or pitchers on winning teams. Voters love a "winner." Drake Baldwin won last year in part because he was a key piece of a Braves team that stayed relevant all summer.
Keep a very close eye on the Giants and Bryce Eldridge. The Giants need offense, and they don't have many other places to turn. If he hits three homers in his first ten Spring Training games, grab whatever price is left.
The path to the 2026 Rookie of the Year is long. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Just ask the people who bet on the early favorites last year only to watch Drake Baldwin hoist the trophy.
Track the Spring Training box scores daily. Look for "loud outs" and high exit velocities. The data usually tells the story before the headlines do.
Be patient. The best value often appears when a high-profile rookie has a slow first week and the public panics. That's when you strike.