Look, if you’re staring at the national league division standings in the middle of January, you’re probably as obsessed as I am. We’re in that weird dead zone. The winter meetings are a memory, the big-name free agents are mostly off the board, and pitchers and catchers haven't quite reported to Arizona or Florida yet.
But here’s the thing: the 2026 season is already taking shape in the numbers.
Honestly, the NL is looking like a total meat grinder this year. You’ve got the perennial powerhouses like the Dodgers basically trying to buy every trophy in existence, but then you’ve got these weirdly resilient squads in the Central and East that refuse to go away. Most people just look at the win-loss columns from last year and assume 2026 will be a carbon copy. It won’t.
The NL West Arms Race
Let’s be real. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the elephant in the room. They finished last season with a 93-69 record, and the projections for 2026 aren't showing much of a dip. They’re basically a super-team. But if you look closer at the West, the San Diego Padres are breathing down their necks.
The Padres managed 90 wins last year. That’s a three-game gap. In baseball, three games is a bad weekend in July or a couple of blown saves by a tired bullpen.
Then there are the Giants. They hovered right at .500 (81-81) last season. While the national media ignores them, their pitching depth is actually kind of terrifying if everyone stays healthy. The Diamondbacks are in a similar boat, coming off an 80-82 campaign. They’re young, fast, and they play that "chaos ball" that drives traditional managers insane.
And then there are the Rockies. 43 wins. I don't even know what to say. It’s tough out there at Mile High.
Chaos in the NL Central
If you want to talk about a division that makes no sense, it’s the Central. The Milwaukee Brewers took the crown last year with 97 wins. They’re efficient. They find guys in the bargain bin and turn them into All-Stars. But the Chicago Cubs are right there.
The Cubs finished 92-70, and honestly, they probably underperformed their expected run differential.
The Reds are the wild card here. They won 83 games last year, but their roster is basically a bunch of 23-year-olds who run like they’re being chased by a bear. If that young core takes a leap in 2026, the national league division standings for the Central could be upside down by Memorial Day.
- Milwaukee Brewers: 97-65 (Reigning Champs)
- Chicago Cubs: 92-70 (The heavy challengers)
- Cincinnati Reds: 83-79 (The breakout candidates)
- St. Louis Cardinals: 78-84 (Searching for an identity)
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 71-91 (Building, slowly)
The Cardinals are the weirdest part of this mix. Usually, they're the ones everyone is chasing, but they’ve been stuck in this mediocre loop lately. They need their veteran pitching to actually act like veterans if they want to avoid another sub-.500 finish.
The NL East: A Three-Way Knife Fight
The Philadelphia Phillies dominated this division last year. 96 wins. They’ve got that "Philly attitude," which basically means they play like they’re in a street fight every night. But the Mets and Braves aren't exactly rolling over.
The Mets finished 83-79, which was... okay? Sorta. For the amount of money they spent, it felt like a letdown. But their underlying stats suggest they were better than their record.
The Braves had a "down" year by their standards, winning 76 games. Most experts, including the folks over at FanGraphs, think that was a fluke caused by a ridiculous amount of injuries to their rotation. If Strider and the rest of that staff are back to 100%, a 20-win jump isn't out of the question.
Don't ignore the Marlins either. They won 79 games last year. They don't have the payroll of the Phillies or Mets, but they have a knack for finding elite starting pitching in places no one else is looking.
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What the Projections Get Wrong
When you check the national league division standings projections for the upcoming 2026 season, you'll see a lot of "safe" bets. Most models love the Dodgers and Phillies.
But these models can't account for the "vibe shift."
Take the Washington Nationals. They lost 96 games last year. They’re projected to be at the bottom again. However, they have a crop of prospects coming up who don't know they're supposed to lose yet. Sometimes that ignorance is a superpower in a long 162-game season.
There's also the schedule factor. With the balanced schedule, teams aren't playing their division rivals 19 times a year anymore. This means a team like the Padres can make up ground by beating up on the American League Central instead of having to face the Dodgers' gauntlet every other week.
Key Factors for 2026
- Starting Rotation Health: In the NL East, this is everything. If the Braves' arms hold up, the Phillies have a problem.
- The Bullpen Tax: The Brewers rely on a high-leverage bullpen. If those arms get tired, that 97-win total will vanish.
- Young Core Development: The Reds and Diamondbacks are betting the house on players under 25.
It’s easy to get lost in the "back of the baseball card" stats. Honestly, I do it all the time. But the actual national league division standings usually come down to which middle-relief pitcher decides to have the month of his life in August.
If you're looking for a sleeper pick, keep an eye on the Giants. Everyone is talking about the Dodgers' billion-dollar roster, but San Francisco is quietly building a rotation that can neutralize those bats in a short series.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're tracking these standings for your local fan group or just to stay ahead of the curve, here’s how to actually read the data as the season starts:
- Monitor Run Differential: Ignore the W-L record for the first 20 games. Look at run differential. A team with a +15 differential but a 9-11 record is actually playing great baseball and will likely surge soon.
- Watch the Waiver Wire: The NL Central is notorious for mid-season shakeups. Teams like the Brewers and Cubs are aggressive in June, not just July.
- Check the Injury Reports Early: The NL East is top-heavy. If a team like the Phillies loses one key starter, they don't have the depth of the Dodgers to cover it.
- Follow the "Strength of Schedule" Adjustments: Since the schedule is balanced, some teams will have a brutal April but an easy September. Don't panic if your team is three games back in May.
The 2026 National League race is going to be a grind. Between the high-spending giants in the West and East and the scrappy, data-driven squads in the Central, there's no such thing as an easy series anymore. Get your coffee ready—it’s going to be a long season.