National Hockey League Stats: Why Most Fans Are Looking at the Wrong Numbers

National Hockey League Stats: Why Most Fans Are Looking at the Wrong Numbers

Hockey is weird. One night your team outshoots the opponent 45 to 12 and loses. The next, your goalie stands on his head and saves a game you had no business being in. Honestly, if you’re just looking at goals and assists to figure out who’s actually good, you’re missing half the story.

We are midway through January 2026. The Colorado Avalanche are currently playing like they’re from another planet. They’ve already hit 70 regulation points in just 45 games, matching historic runs by the legendary Montreal Canadiens teams of the late 70s. But stats aren’t just for record-chasing. They’re the breadcrumbs that tell us why Nathan MacKinnon is currently breathing down Connor McDavid’s neck for the scoring lead.

The Reality of National Hockey League Stats Right Now

If you want to understand the 2025-26 season, you have to look at the "big three" currently terrorizing goaltenders. Connor McDavid has 82 points. Nathan MacKinnon has 81. And then there's the kid, Macklin Celebrini, sitting at 70 points for a San Jose Sharks team that finally looks like it’s figured something out.

But let's be real for a second.

Total points are kinda like looking at the odometer of a car. It tells you how far you’ve gone, but not how fast the engine is running. To see the engine, you have to check the NHL EDGE data. McDavid isn't just scoring because he's "talented." He's doing it because he leads the league in 22-plus mph speed bursts. He has 90 of them this season alone.

Ninety.

Think about that. While most players are gassing out by their third shift, McDavid is essentially a human glitch.

Why Scoring Has Exploded (It's Not Just Talent)

Scoring is up. Again. We’re seeing point totals that would make Gretzky-era fans nod in approval. But it’s not just that players are faster. It’s that they’re smarter about where they shoot from.

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Take Tyler Bertuzzi over in Chicago. He has 24 goals, which is a solid number, but here's the kicker: 21 of those came from "high-danger zones." Basically, the area right in front of the crease where you’re most likely to get a stick to the face. He’s not out there taking low-percentage slappers from the blue line. He’s living in the paint.

Compare that to a guy like Morgan Geekie in Boston. He’s tied for fifth in the league with 25 goals, but he’s doing it with pure violence. He’s clocked multiple shots over 100 mph this season.

It’s a contrast in styles. You have the "garbage goal" specialists and the "cannon" specialists, and they’re both finding ways to break the modern defensive systems.

The Goalie Graveyard: Who’s Actually Surviving?

Goaltending is harder than it’s ever been. The equipment is smaller, the shooters are faster, and the puck moves like a hummingbird. Honestly, I don't know how anyone does it.

Yet, Mackenzie Blackwood is somehow leading the league with a 2.07 Goals Against Average (GAA). He’s been the backbone for Colorado while Scott Wedgewood has been right there with him at 2.19. It’s a luxury that most teams don’t have.

Then you look at the Islanders. Ilya Sorokin is leading the league in high-danger save percentage at .870. That means when a player gets a "grade-A" chance right in his face, he’s still stopping it nearly 9 times out of 10. That’s the difference between a playoff spot and a high draft pick.

  1. Top Point Leaders: McDavid (82), MacKinnon (81), Celebrini (70).
  2. Goalie Efficiency: Blackwood (.924 SV%), Wallstedt (.923 SV%).
  3. The Enforcers: Nikita Zadorov leads the league with 113 penalty minutes. Arber Xhekaj is right behind him at 102. Physicality hasn't left the building yet.

The Rookie Revolution

Everyone talked about Macklin Celebrini, and for good reason. He’s living up to the hype. But keep an eye on Ivan Demidov in Montreal. He’s got 39 points and looks like the creative spark the Canadiens have been desperate for.

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Beckett Sennecke in Anaheim is another one. He’s put up 15 goals and 35 points, showing that the Ducks' rebuild might actually have some teeth this time. It’s a great year to be a fan of young talent.

What Most People Get Wrong About Analytics

People love to hate on "Corsi" and "Expected Goals." They say it’s for nerds who don’t watch the games. But teams like the Minnesota Wild are proving that if you ignore the data, you lose.

The Wild traded for Quinn Hughes recently. Why? Because the data showed their blue line couldn't transition the puck fast enough. They gave up a haul—Zeev Buium, Liam Ohgren, Marco Rossi, and a first-rounder—to get him. It was a massive gamble. But since Hughes arrived, their zone-exit success rate has skyrocketed.

  • Shot Quality: It's more important than shot volume.
  • Puck Possession: Teams that win the "zone time" battle win 64% of their games this season.
  • Special Teams: The Dallas Stars are currently top of the league because their penalty kill is a literal wall.

The Trade Deadline Looming

With the trade deadline approaching, these national hockey league stats are going to dictate the market. The Lightning are winning games without Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, which is insane. They’re 11-0 without Hedman. That shouldn't happen.

It tells us their depth stats are way better than we thought. But they’re still looking for a top-six forward. Why? Because their shooting percentage during this win streak is unsustainably high. They know a regression is coming.

Actionable Insights for the Second Half of the Season

Stop looking at the standings alone. If you want to know who’s going to win the Cup, look at High-Danger Scoring Chances For (HDCF%).

Teams like Colorado and Dallas aren't just winning because they're lucky. They’re winning because they consistently create more chaos in the opponent's crease than they allow in their own.

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Keep an eye on the injury reports for Tampa Bay and Carolina. If Pyotr Kochetkov stays out for the Hurricanes, their GAA is going to suffer, no matter how many shots they block.

Watch the speed tracking. When McDavid’s 20-plus mph bursts drop below 5 per game, you know he’s nursing an injury. Until then, he’s the safest bet in hockey.

Don't ignore the rookies. Demidov and Sennecke are getting more ice time every week. Their "points per 60 minutes" stats suggest they'll be even more productive in March than they are now.

Check the schedule. The Penguins and Flyers are both struggling right now, but Sidney Crosby is still producing a point per game at 38 years old. Betting against him in the second half usually ends poorly for the doubters.

Start paying attention to "Zone Starts." If a player is starting 70% of their shifts in the offensive zone, their high point total might be a product of coaching, not just individual skill. Find the guys who start in the defensive zone and still produce—those are the real MVPs.

The next few months are going to be a gauntlet. The physical toll of the 82-game season starts to show in the "blocked shots" and "hits" categories. If a team's hit count is dropping while their goals against are rising, they’re tired. Simple as that.

Stay updated on the goalie rotations. With the Olympic break coming up for Milano Cortina 2026, many of these European starters are going to be pushed to their limit. Fatigue is the one stat no one can outrun.