The NHL playoff race is usually a slow burn. But this year? Honestly, it's a cage match. As we hit the mid-January stretch of 2026, the battle for a spot in the postseason has become a weird mix of predictable powerhouses and "wait, they're actually good?" stories.
If you haven't been glued to the standings, the national hockey league playoff teams picture looks a lot different than it did three years ago. The Colorado Avalanche are basically a cheat code right now, sitting at the top of the league with 74 points. They’ve only lost five games in regulation. It’s absurd. Meanwhile, everyone is trying to figure out if the San Jose Sharks—yes, those Sharks—are actually going to make the cut.
The Current Hierarchy of National Hockey League Playoff Teams
Right now, the bracket is divided into the haves, the have-nots, and the "living on a prayer" crowd. In the Western Conference, it's the Avalanche's world. We're just living in it. Nathan MacKinnon is leading the league in points, and they’ve built a cushion that makes a division title feel like a foregone conclusion.
Behind them, the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are locked in a death match for Central Division positioning. The Stars are playing that heavy, structured game that coaches love and fans find occasionally exhausting. It works. They win the games they’re supposed to win.
The Pacific Chaos
The Vegas Golden Knights are doing typical Vegas things. They just won seven straight. Mark Stone is still hitting clutch overtime winners, and they look like a team that knows exactly when to flip the switch. But the real story is the resurgence of the Edmonton Oilers and the emergence of the San Jose Sharks.
Macklin Celebrini is a legitimate superstar. He's 19 and already has 50 points. People thought the Sharks were years away from being a factor among national hockey league playoff teams, but Yaroslav Askarov is standing on his head in goal. If they get in, they’ll be the team nobody wants to draw in the first round because they have nothing to lose.
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Moving East: The Atlantic is a Meat Grinder
The Eastern Conference is always a disaster for your blood pressure. The Carolina Hurricanes are the class of the Metropolitan, finally looking like they might actually break through that "Conference Final" ceiling. Rod Brind'Amour has them playing like they’re shot out of a cannon every single night.
But look at the Atlantic.
- Detroit Red Wings (Wait, what?)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (Death, taxes, and Kucherov)
- Montreal Canadiens (The kids are alright)
Detroit is the analytical darling of the 2025-2026 season. They rank second in the NHL in high-danger shots. Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat are finally getting the puck luck they lacked in previous years. It's cool to see a "Original Six" team actually relevant again.
The Bubble is Crowded
The Buffalo Sabres are currently trying to end a 14-year playoff drought. It’s the longest active streak in the league. Honestly, it's been painful to watch for a decade, but Tage Thompson is playing like a giant among men again. They’re currently hovering around the second Wild Card spot, fighting off the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Speaking of Toronto, it's the same old story. They have the talent. They have the star power. But they’re sitting in 12th place in the league standings as of January 18. They’ll likely make it because their power play is too good not to, but the vibes are... let’s just say "tense" in Ontario.
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What the Stats are Actually Telling Us
If you look at the NHL EDGE data, some teams are "frauds" and others are just unlucky. The Philadelphia Flyers are a great example of a team that works hard but doesn't have the finishing talent to stay in the race. They're currently 18th in the league. They're gritty. They're tough. They also can't score enough to beat the heavyweights.
On the flip side, the Pittsburgh Penguins are refusing to die. Sidney Crosby is 38 years old and still top 10 in high-danger goals. They’re currently third in the Metro. Under new coach Dan Muse, they’ve found a "by-committee" approach to goaltending that is actually working.
Goaltending X-Factors
- Brandon Bussi (Carolina): The reason the Canes are first in the Metro.
- Tristan Jarry (Edmonton): The Oilers traded for him to replace Stuart Skinner. It's a massive gamble.
- John Gibson (Detroit): If his 5-on-5 save percentage stays high, Detroit is a lock.
Why This Year Feels Different
The 2026 season is unique because of the Olympic break. Players are heading to Milan in February. This creates a weird dynamic for national hockey league playoff teams. Do you push hard now to secure a spot before the break? Or do you pray your stars don't get hurt playing for gold?
The Florida Panthers are trying for a "three-peat" (if you count their 2024 and 2025 runs as the start of a dynasty), but they're currently sitting in 17th. They’re under .500 in their last ten games. It's a classic championship hangover, and they are running out of runway to fix it.
Predictions That Don't Suck
Based on the current trajectory, here is how the field is likely to shake out.
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The Western Conference will likely see the Avalanche, Stars, and Wild coming out of the Central. The Pacific will send Vegas, Edmonton, and likely the Seattle Kraken, who have quietly climbed into 3rd in the division. The Wild Cards are a toss-up between the Utah Mammoth (in their sophomore year!) and the Sharks.
In the East, the Hurricanes and Islanders look solid in the Metro. The Atlantic will likely send Detroit and Tampa. That leaves a massive scramble for the remaining three spots between Montreal, Buffalo, Boston, and Pittsburgh.
Actionable Steps for Fans and Bettors
If you’re following the race for national hockey league playoff teams, stop looking at the total points and start looking at "Games in Hand."
Vegas has played 46 games, while many teams in the East have played 49. Those three extra games are massive when the gap between 8th and 11th place is only four points. Also, watch the "Strength of Schedule" for the month of March. The Sabres have a brutal West Coast road trip coming up that will likely decide if their 14-year nightmare finally ends or continues.
Monitor the injury reports for the Florida Panthers. If Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand (who is now with Florida) don't return to 100% health by the February Olympic break, the defending champs might actually miss the dance entirely. Keep an eye on the waiver wire in fantasy leagues for Brandon Bussi—he's the real deal and is the primary reason Carolina is cruising.
Check the schedule for "four-point games" within the Atlantic Division over the next three weeks. Detroit plays Montreal twice before February 1. Those games will basically determine who gets home-ice advantage in the first round and who has to travel to Raleigh or Tampa.