If you’ve been watching the energy markets lately, you know it's a bit of a rollercoaster. One day natural gas prices are spiking because of a cold snap in the Northeast, and the next, they’re sliding because storage is a bit too full. In the middle of all this noise sits National Fuel Gas Company stock price—currently hovering around $81.12 as of January 16, 2026.
It’s a weird spot to be in. The stock isn't exactly "cheap" compared to its $67 lows from last year, but it's also pulled back from that $94 peak we saw in late 2025. Honestly, if you're looking for a "moon mission" tech stock, NFG is going to bore you to tears. But for anyone who likes getting paid to wait, this Williamsville-based company is basically the "old reliable" of the energy sector.
The Dividend Streak Nobody Talked About (Until Now)
Let’s get the big one out of the way. Most companies brag if they raise their dividend for a decade. National Fuel Gas? They just hit 54 consecutive years of dividend increases. That’s not just a "streak"—it’s a legacy. They are officially a Dividend King.
As of right now, the quarterly payout is $0.54 per share. That works out to an annual $2.14, giving the stock a yield of roughly 2.64%. Now, I know what you’re thinking: "2.6%? I can get more in a savings account."
Fair point. But a savings account doesn't give you exposure to a massive $2.6 billion acquisition of an Ohio utility.
Why the Ohio Move Changes the Game
Back in October 2025, NFG dropped a bombshell by agreeing to buy Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio from CenterPoint Energy. This is a massive deal. We're talking about a move that's supposed to double their utility segment’s rate base once it closes in late 2026.
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Usually, when a company spends $2.6 billion, investors get nervous about debt. And yeah, NFG did a $350 million private placement of stock in December 2025 to help fund things. Dilution is never fun, but the logic here is pretty sound. By beefing up the "utility" side of the business (the regulated stuff where they just deliver gas to houses), they balance out the "exploration" side (the risky stuff where they drill for gas). It makes the national fuel gas company stock price way less sensitive to whether natural gas is trading at $2 or $4.
Breaking Down the Numbers: Is NFG Actually Fairly Valued?
If you look at the $P/E$ ratio, it’s sitting around 14.27. In the world of utilities, that’s pretty middle-of-the-pack. But some analysts are starting to get really bullish.
Wall Street price targets for 2026 are all over the place, but the average is sitting somewhere near $103. Some aggressive forecasts from firms like WallStreetZen and Fintel even suggest a "high" of $112 if everything goes right with their Tioga Utica wells.
- Current Price: ~$81.12
- 52-Week High: $94.13
- 52-Week Low: $67.10
- Market Cap: ~$7.7 Billion
The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is expected to hit $8.09, according to Zacks. If they actually hit that, we're looking at a 17% growth rate compared to last year. For a 120-year-old company, that's actually kind of impressive.
What Most People Get Wrong About NFG
A lot of retail investors see "Gas Company" and think it's just a bunch of pipes in Buffalo. It’s way more complex. NFG is "integrated," which means they do everything. They find the gas in the Marcellus and Utica shales (Seneca Resources), they move it through huge interstate pipelines (Supply Corp), and they sell it to your grandma to heat her kitchen (Distribution Corp).
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This integration is why they survived the 2024-2025 price slumps better than the pure-play drillers. When gas prices are low, the drilling side hurts, but the pipeline and utility sides stay steady. It’s a natural hedge.
The Data Center Wildcard
Here’s something most people aren't looking at: the Shippingport Lateral Project. NFG filed an application with FERC for an interstate pipeline expansion specifically to feed a data center site.
Why does this matter for the national fuel gas company stock price? Because data centers are the biggest new "power hungry" customers on the block. That project alone is targeted to generate $15 million in annual revenue. It's a small slice of the pie right now, but it shows that NFG is finding ways to pivot toward the "AI-driven" energy demand everyone is obsessing over.
Risk Factors: It’s Not All Sunshine and Dividends
Look, I’m not going to sit here and tell you it’s a risk-free bet. There are real headwinds.
- Regulatory Pushback: New York is... let's say "not friendly" to natural gas. There’s a constant battle over gas bans in new construction. While NFG did get a rate increase in NY starting Jan 2025 (their first since 2017), the political climate remains a headache.
- The Fed: Utilities hate high interest rates. If the Fed stays hawkish through 2026, income investors might stick with bonds instead of NFG.
- Warm Winters: If we have another "non-winter" where nobody turns on their heater, the revenue lag we saw in late 2025 could happen again.
What to Watch Next
The next big catalyst is the First Quarter Fiscal 2026 earnings call scheduled for January 29, 2026.
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If they beat the $1.90 estimate for the quarter, expect the stock to test that $85 resistance level. If they miss, or if they sound worried about the Ohio acquisition's regulatory hurdles, we could see it slide back toward $78.
Actionable Insights for Your Watchlist:
- The $80 Floor: Historically, NFG has found a lot of support near the $78-$80 range. If it dips below that without a major market crash, it’s usually been a "buy the dip" opportunity for income seekers.
- Monitor the Ohio Acquisition: Any news about "regulatory delays" for the Vectren deal will likely cause short-term volatility.
- Check the Henry Hub: Natural gas prices are currently around $3.12/MMBtu. If these stabilize above $3.50, NFG’s Seneca Resources division will start printing cash.
Honestly, National Fuel Gas is the kind of stock you buy when you're tired of checking your phone every five minutes. It’s not going to make you a millionaire overnight, but it probably won't let you go broke either. With 54 years of dividend hikes behind them, they’ve proven they know how to handle a crisis.
Next Steps for Investors:
Check the upcoming earnings report on January 28, 2026, specifically looking for updates on the "Shippingport Lateral" revenue and any changes to the 2026 production guidance. If you're an income investor, verify the next ex-dividend date, likely to be in late March 2026, to lock in the next quarterly payout.