National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) is having a moment. Honestly, if you’ve been watching the metal space lately, it’s been hard to miss the fireworks. Just a few days ago, on January 16, 2026, the stock settled around ₹361.60. That’s a bit of a slide from the previous close of ₹373.55, but context matters. In the grand scheme of things, NALCO has been a beast.
The stock basically went on a tear earlier this month, hitting a 52-week high of ₹374.30. People are talking. Analysts are scrambling. If you bought this a year ago when it was languishing near its 52-week low of ₹137.75, you’re likely feeling pretty smug right now. Your money didn't just grow; it effectively surged over 80%.
Why the NALCO Share Price is Smashing Records
It isn't just luck. The global aluminium market is in a bit of a frenzy. Prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) recently breached the $3,000 per tonne mark. That’s a level we haven't seen in years. When the global price of the stuff you sell goes up, your bottom line tends to follow.
China has been capping its smelting capacity, and Europe is still struggling with power costs that make production a headache. This has created a supply squeeze. Meanwhile, everyone wants aluminium for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. It’s a classic supply-demand tug-of-war where the "demand" side has way more muscle.
The Profit Explosion
Look at the numbers. In the quarter ending September 2025, NALCO’s net profit jumped a massive 36.7% to reach ₹1,430 crore. Their margins are hovering around 45%. That is sorta wild for a PSU (Public Sector Undertaking) in a commodity business. They are keeping costs down—specifically by using their own captive coal—and selling at record prices.
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- Quarterly Revenue: ~₹4,293 crore
- Operating Margin: ~42.8% to 45%
- TTM EPS: ₹33.28
What Most People Get Wrong About NALCO
There’s a misconception that because it’s a government-owned company, it’s slow and stodgy. But NALCO is actually one of the lowest-cost producers of alumina in the world. That matters. When prices drop, they stay profitable longer than the "big guys" in the West.
Another thing: the dividend. People see the stock price doubling and forget the yield. NALCO recently declared an interim dividend of ₹4 per share in November 2025. Over the last year, they've shelled out roughly ₹11 to ₹14.50 per share in total. At current prices, that yield is around 2.9% to 4%. It's a nice kicker while you wait for the stock to move.
The Bear Case (Yes, it exists)
Not everyone is a fan. You’ve got big names like ICICI Securities holding a more cautious view. Some analysts have price targets as low as ₹246. Why? Because they think the aluminium rally is overextended. If global prices cooling down, the NALCO share price could take a hit.
There is also the "Project Risk." NALCO is spending ₹30,000 crore on a new smelter and power plant. Execution is everything here. If they hit delays or cost overruns—which happens—investors might get jumpy.
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The 2026 Outlook
What’s next? The company is adding a new 1-million-tonne alumina refinery stream, expected to be fully operational by mid-2026. This is huge. It adds volume just when the world is hungry for it.
The market is currently pricing in a lot of perfection. With a P/E ratio around 10.8x, it actually looks cheap compared to the broader Indian market average of 25x+. But remember, commodity stocks always look "cheap" at the peak of a cycle and "expensive" at the bottom. It’s a bit of a mind-bender.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
If you're into charts, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) was recently screaming "overbought" when it hit 80+ during the surge to ₹374. The recent dip to ₹361 is basically a cooling-off period.
- Support: ₹330 - ₹345 (This was a previous resistance zone)
- Resistance: ₹375 (The recent peak)
- Long-term Trend: Strongly bullish above the 200-day moving average
Your Next Steps with NALCO
If you are looking at National Aluminium Company Limited as a potential investment, don't just chase the green candles. Here is the play:
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Monitor LME Prices: If aluminium stays above $2,900/tonne, NALCO has room to run. If it breaks below $2,600, watch out.
Check the Refinery Progress: Keep an eye on news regarding the Damanjodi refinery expansion. Any news of a "commissioning" date will likely trigger another move.
Dividend Reinvestment: If you’re a long-term holder, the dividends are significant. Reinvesting those during minor dips can significantly boost your total return over a 3-year period.
Risk Management: Given the volatility, avoid putting a lump sum in at all-time highs. Salami-slicing your entry—buying a bit now and a bit later—is usually the smarter move with metal stocks.
National Aluminium is no longer the "boring" stock it was three years ago. It’s a high-beta play on the global energy transition. Just keep your eyes on the commodity prices, because that's what's really driving the bus here.
Actionable Insight: Review your portfolio's exposure to the metal sector. If NALCO has grown to represent more than 10-15% of your holdings due to the recent rally, it might be time to shave some profit and wait for a re-entry near the ₹335 support level. Always consult with a registered financial advisor before making big moves in the market.