You’re probably checking the weather forecast for Nashville Arkansas because you’ve got plans at the park or you’re worried about that weird Arkansas humidity. Most people think they know what "Southwest Arkansas weather" looks like—basically hot, then slightly less hot. But if you’ve lived here through a January ice storm or a May deluge, you know Nashville doesn't play by the rules.
Right now, as of Wednesday, January 14, 2026, the sky over Howard County is mostly cloudy with a crisp temperature of 57°F. It feels like 54°F if you’re standing in the wind, which is currently kicking up at 16 mph from the north.
It’s a bit of a tease.
The Short-Term Swing
If you're heading out tonight, don't let that 57°F afternoon high fool you. The mercury is set to nosedive to a freezing 26°F by tomorrow morning.
Basically, you’ve got a 30-degree swing coming in less than 12 hours.
Tomorrow, Thursday, January 15, looks like a gorgeous sunny day with a high of 49°F, but that low stays brutal at 25°F. Friday rebounds slightly to 57°F before another cold front drags us down into the low 40s for the weekend.
Honestly, it’s typical Nashville.
Weather Forecast for Nashville Arkansas: The 10-Day Outlook
Looking ahead, the next week is going to be a rollercoaster of typical January shifts. We aren't seeing any massive snow alerts yet, but there’s a slight chance of some white stuff mixed with rain tonight—only about 5%, so don't go buying out the bread and milk at Walmart just yet.
By Saturday, January 17, things get "Arkansas cold." We’re looking at a high of only 43°F and a low of 22°F. Sunday is similar, peaking at 44°F with a low of 21°F.
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Then, the moisture returns.
Next Friday, January 23, the temperature jumps back up to 62°F, but it brings rain with a 35% chance of showers. This is the classic Southwest Arkansas winter cycle: freezing dry air followed by a warm, humid push that usually ends in mud.
Why Nashville Weather is Deceptive
People often check the weather forecast for Nashville Arkansas and see a high of 60°F in January and think "Spring is early!"
Nope.
In this part of the state, we’re tucked into the rolling hills of the West Gulf Coastal Plain. We get the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, but we also get the hammer of cold air coming down from the Plains. When those two meet right over Mine Creek, things get interesting.
The average high in January is technically 54°F, but that number is an average for a reason. One day it’s 70°F and you’re in a t-shirt; the next, you’re scraping ice off your windshield because it dropped to 18°F.
- Humidity: Even in winter, Nashville averages around 68% humidity. This makes the 20s feel bone-chilling and the 90s feel like you’re breathing through a wet towel.
- Rainfall: We aren't a desert. Nashville gets about 54 inches of rain a year. That’s significantly higher than the national average.
- The "Mud Factor": Because of our soil composition, a "light rain" on the forecast usually means you'll be tracking red clay into the house for three days.
Severe Weather Risks Nobody Talks About
We talk about tornadoes because they’re scary. And yeah, Nashville is in a high-risk zone for hail and wind events—the data shows Howard County has a 24% risk score for major storm events, dominated by hail (42%) and tornadoes (54%).
But the real "silent killer" of plans here is the flooding.
Nashville has a high flood risk score (68 according to Augurisk data). We aren't just talking about the 100-year flood zones; we’re talking about the 500-year risk that catches people off guard. When the forecast calls for 2+ inches of rain, the low spots near the creek and the southern parts of the county can turn into ponds fast.
Then there’s the ice.
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Snow is rare—we only average about 2 inches a year. But ice storms? Those happen. A forecast that says "33°F and rain" is far more dangerous here than "25°F and snow." The 2000 ice storm is still a legend around here for a reason. It paralyzed the region.
How to Actually Read the Local Forecast
Don't just look at the big icon on your phone. If you're looking at the weather forecast for Nashville Arkansas, pay attention to the wind direction.
A south wind in February means you can probably plan that outdoor project. A north or northwest wind means you better have the heater ready.
Also, watch the dew point. If the dew point is high and a cold front is coming from the west, that’s when the sirens might go off.
Practical Tips for Nashville Residents
Since the weather is so bipolar, you basically have to live in layers.
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Keep a rain shell in the truck. You’ll need it. Even if the sun is out now, the Gulf moisture can move in fast.
Check the "Feels Like" temperature rather than the raw number. With 16 mph winds today, 57°F feels more like 50°F. If you’re working outside, that 7-degree difference is exactly how you catch a cold.
Monitor local sources. While big sites like WeatherBug or The Weather Channel are okay, the National Weather Service out of Shreveport (which covers Nashville) is usually the most accurate for our specific corner of the state.
Actionable Steps for This Week
- Drip the faucets: With lows hitting 21°F and 22°F this coming Sunday and Monday, your pipes are at risk.
- Cover the plants: That 57°F Friday might tempt you to put something out. Don't. Saturday's drop will kill it.
- Check the gutters: We have rain moving in late next week. Clear out the leaves now while it's dry and 49°F tomorrow.
- Watch the wind: Highs of 20 mph today mean loose patio furniture or trash cans might take a trip down the street.
The weather forecast for Nashville Arkansas is a moving target. It’s part of the charm of living in Howard County, I guess. Just stay weather-aware and don't trust a sunny morning to stay that way by lunch.