So, if you're looking at the 30 day Nashville forecast, you've probably noticed that Middle Tennessee is currently doing that thing where it can't decide if it wants to be the Arctic Circle or a mild spring morning.
Right now, we are smack in the middle of a serious cold snap. It’s 25°F tonight, but honestly, with the wind coming off the southwest, it feels more like 18°F. If you’ve stepped outside near Broadway or even just to take the dog out in East Nashville, you know that bite is real.
But here is the thing about January in Nashville: the "average" is basically a lie. We tell tourists it's a "mild" 46°F, but then we get hit with a Saturday like the one coming up on January 24th, where the high is only 24°F and we’re staring down a heavy snow storm.
The 30 Day Nashville Forecast: What to Actually Expect
Weather in the Music City is notoriously fickle because we’re in this weird transition zone. One day you’re wearing a light Patagonia vest, and the next, you’re digging for the heavy wool socks you swore you wouldn't need this year.
According to the latest data from the National Weather Service and the long-range outlooks for late January and February 2026, we’re looking at a split story.
The next ten days are looking pretty brutal. We’ve got a string of sunny but freezing days. Monday, January 19th, is looking at a high of 32°F and a low of 15°F. Tuesday is basically a carbon copy, though slightly "warmer" at 35°F. You’ll want to keep the faucets dripping those nights. Trust me, nobody wants to deal with a burst pipe in this economy.
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Then comes the weekend of January 24th. This is the big one on the current 30 day Nashville forecast. We are looking at a 40% chance of a heavy snow storm during the day, jumping to a 65% chance of light snow that night. The high is only 24°F. That is "stay inside and order Hattie B's" weather, assuming anyone is actually out delivering in the slush.
February’s Sneaky Warm-Up
If you can survive the frozen tundra of late January, February 2026 is actually looking a bit more forgiving. The Old Farmer’s Almanac and local historical trends suggest that while early February starts cold—think rain and snow mixes around the 1st through the 4th—we’re headed for a "very warm" stretch in the middle of the month.
Historically, Nashville highs in February start around 49°F and climb toward 57°F by the end of the month. This year, the models suggest we might even blow past that into the 60s for a few days between February 12th and 20th. It’s that "fool’s spring" that makes you want to plant flowers way too early. Don't do it. We almost always get one last freeze in March that kills everything.
Breaking Down the Numbers (No Boring Tables)
Instead of a spreadsheet, let's just talk about the vibe for the next month:
The rest of January is basically a freezer. We have lows reaching 10°F on January 25th and 26th. If you have outdoor pets or plants that aren't native to the tundra, they need to be inside. Humidity is hovering around 47%, which is dry enough to give you that annoying winter static every time you touch a doorknob.
Transitioning into February, the moisture picks up. February is usually one of our wettest months, and 2026 isn't looking any different. Expect about 10 days of rain throughout the month. The average high will be around 51°F, which is actually 3 degrees above our usual average.
Wind is another factor people forget. In January, we're averaging about 13.9 mph. That doesn't sound like much until you're standing on a corner waiting for a rideshare and that "breezy" wind chill turns 35°F into "I can't feel my face."
Is This a "Snow Year" for Nashville?
Everyone in Tennessee asks this. Usually, we get about 4.7 inches of snow for the whole season. This year, we’re getting a big chunk of that all at once in late January. After the snow storm on the 24th and the lingering snow showers through the 28th, the "snow season" will likely taper off quickly.
By the time we hit mid-February, the precipitation shifts back to mostly rain. The chance of a "wet day" stays constant at about 29% throughout February, but the chance of it being white rain drops from 3% down to 1% by the end of the month.
How to Handle the Next 30 Days
Nashville isn't built for prolonged freezes. Our salt trucks are great, but the secondary roads in neighborhoods like Crieve Hall or Bellevue can turn into ice rinks pretty fast.
Plan for the big freeze: From now until January 28th, keep your gas tank at least half full. Condensation in the tank can freeze in those 10°F lows we're seeing for the 25th.
Watch the "thaw-freeze" cycle: On January 21st, we hit 43°F with some rain. That’s going to melt whatever is on the ground, only for it to snap-freeze back into black ice by the 23rd when the temp drops back to 38°F and then 24°F.
February prep: Use that "very warm" week in mid-February to clean out your gutters. With the heavy rain predicted for the end of the month (The Almanac is calling for a "rainy" final week), you don't want those fall leaves causing a backup.
Basically, the 30 day Nashville forecast tells us to buckle up for ten days of winter chaos followed by a confusingly warm Valentine’s Day. Welcome to Tennessee.
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Actionable Insights for the Month Ahead:
- Drip your pipes on the nights of Jan 25th and 26th when lows hit 10°F.
- Avoid travel on Saturday, Jan 24th; the heavy snow storm models are looking consistent.
- Wait to garden despite the mid-February warm-up; a late-season frost is still statistically likely in March.
- Check your tire pressure now; these 30-degree swings in 24 hours will trigger your "low air" light.