College basketball used to be a senior’s game. You’d wait your turn, grind through three years of NIT appearances or early March exits, and then finally—maybe—you’d have the "heft" to win a national award.
That world is dead.
Right now, if you’re looking at the naismith player of the year odds, you aren't seeing a bunch of grizzled 23-year-olds at the top. You’re seeing teenagers. We are officially in the era of the "Uber-Freshman," and honestly, the betting markets are struggling to keep up with just how dominant these kids have become.
Take a look at Duke. Everyone knew Cameron Boozer was going to be good. He's the son of Carlos Boozer, he's 6'9", and he moves like a wing. But "good" doesn't usually mean leading a blue-blood program in points (23.3), rebounds (9.7), and assists (4.2) as a true freshman.
The oddsmakers at FanDuel and BetMGM have him sitting as the heavy favorite, with some books moving him as low as -190. That’s an insane number for mid-January. Usually, this race is a wide-open scramble until the conference tournaments, but Boozer is currently sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
The Two-Horse Race for the Naismith Trophy
It’s basically a heavyweight fight between two guys who can’t even legally buy a beer yet. On one side, you have Boozer in Durham. On the other, you have AJ Dybantsa at BYU.
Dybantsa is a bucket. Plain and simple. He’s leading the nation in scoring at 23.1 points per game and he’s the reason BYU is a legitimate top-10 team right now. If you’re hunting for value in the naismith player of the year odds, Dybantsa at +230 or +275 (depending on where you shop) is the only realistic pivot from the Boozer hype train.
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The narrative for Dybantsa is actually pretty strong. If he wins the scoring title and keeps BYU in the hunt for a Big 12 title—which is arguably the toughest gauntlet in the country—voters might lean his way just to reward the "degree of difficulty."
The Mid-Season Pecking Order
- Cameron Boozer (Duke): -175 to -190. The "Safe" Bet. He does everything. Efficiency is through the roof (56% from the field).
- AJ Dybantsa (BYU): +230 to +350. The "Scorer's" Choice. If he drops 30 on Kansas or Houston in February, these odds will vanish.
- Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State): +900. The "Dark Horse." He’s the engine of a Cyclones team that refuses to lose at home.
- Braden Smith (Purdue): +1200 to +1600. The "Vets' Revenge." He's averaging nearly 10 assists a game, but his low scoring average (around 12 PPG) is a massive anchor on his candidacy.
Why Braden Smith is a Risky Bet
Look, I love Braden Smith. He’s the best pure point guard in the country. He just passed Cassius Winston for the all-time Big Ten assist record, which is a monstrous achievement.
But here’s the cold truth about the Naismith Trophy: voters love points.
In the history of this award, it is incredibly rare for a player averaging 12 points to win, no matter how many assists they rack up. The last time we saw a "traditional" point guard win, they usually had to be a scoring threat too. Smith is the ultimate floor general, but in a year where Boozer and Dybantsa are both flirting with 24 points a night, the math just doesn't work for him.
If you're holding a +1100 ticket on Smith, you're basically betting on Duke and BYU collapsing. It's possible, sure. But it's not likely.
The "Lendeborg" Factor at Michigan
One name that keeps popping up in the naismith player of the year odds around the +2200 to +3500 range is Yaxel Lendeborg.
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Dusty May has turned Michigan into a fun, fast-paced machine, and Lendeborg is the Swiss Army knife. He’s putting up roughly 15 points and 7 boards, but it’s his defensive impact that catches the eye. He’s a "stock" machine (steals + blocks).
Is he going to win? Probably not. The Michigan roster is too deep; they have too many guys who can lead them in scoring on any given night. That’s great for winning games in March, but it’s a killer for individual award campaigns. To win the Naismith, you usually need to be "The Guy" every single Tuesday and Saturday.
What the History Books Tell Us
We’ve seen some weird stuff lately. Last year, Cooper Flagg took home the hardware as a freshman. Before that, Zach Edey went back-to-back because he was a 7'4" cheat code.
The trend is moving toward players who have a "wow" factor. Voters are human. They watch the 11 PM highlights on ESPN. They see AJ Dybantsa hitting a step-back three over two defenders and they remember it. They see Cameron Boozer bullying a 5th-year senior in the paint and it sticks.
If you're looking at the historical data, the Naismith winner almost always comes from a team ranked in the Top 15. Team success is a prerequisite.
"Individual brilliance is the engine, but team wins are the fuel for a Naismith campaign." — Anonymous Big 12 Scout
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That’s why someone like JT Toppin at Texas Tech is a long shot despite his 21 and 10 average. If Tech finishes 5th in the Big 12, Toppin doesn't have a path, no matter how good his stats look.
Actionable Strategy: How to Play the Odds Right Now
If you're actually looking to put money down, don't just chase the biggest number. That +7500 on Darryn Peterson at Kansas looks juicy, but Bill Self’s offense is way too balanced for Peterson to put up the 25-point nights he needs to catch Boozer.
1. Watch the Head-to-Head Matchups.
College basketball awards are often won in February. If BYU plays a high-profile game against a top-5 team and Dybantsa goes off, his odds will jump from +350 to +150 overnight. That's your window.
2. The "Freshman Wall" is a Myth.
People used to wait for freshmen to tire out in February. It doesn't happen to these elite prospects anymore. They’ve been playing high-level AAU ball year-round since they were 12. Don't bet against Boozer just because you think he'll hit a wall.
3. Hedge with Joshua Jefferson.
If you really want a non-freshman, Jefferson at +900 is the play. Iowa State is a defensive juggernaut, and if they win the Big 12 regular-season title, Jefferson will be the "safe" choice for voters who are tired of the freshman hype.
The race is far from over, but the window to get decent value on the favorites is closing fast. Every time Boozer puts up a double-double on national TV, that -175 is going to creep closer to -300.
Keep an eye on the injury reports, obviously. In a race this top-heavy, one rolled ankle can change the entire landscape of the college basketball world in an afternoon.
Monitor the conference standings over the next three weeks. If Duke stays atop the ACC, Boozer’s grip on the trophy becomes a vice. If BYU slips to third or fourth in the Big 12, Dybantsa’s scoring won't be enough to save his candidacy. The smart move is to wait for the next "off" game from Boozer to see if his price briefly inflates back to plus-money.