That Wild Finish at Churchill Downs
Eighteen inches. It’s about the length of a sub sandwich or a standard computer monitor. But on the first Saturday in May 2024, eighteen inches—specifically a nose—was the difference between immortality and being a footnote in the history books. If you’re wondering who won the Derby, the answer is Mystik Dan, a horse that most bettors had overlooked until the very last second.
It was the 150th running. A milestone. Everyone expected something big, but nobody quite expected a three-horse photo finish that looked like a choreographed dance move.
Brian Hernandez Jr. rode the rail. He didn't just ride it; he hugged it like his life depended on it. It’s a risky move. Usually, the rail is where dreams go to die because you get boxed in, trapped behind tiring horses with nowhere to go. But Hernandez saw a gap. He took it. And for a few agonizing minutes after the race, the entire sporting world held its breath while the stewards looked at a grainy photo.
The Three-Way Heart Attack
Honestly, the finish was stressful. Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young hit the wire essentially as one organism.
Sierra Leone was the expensive one. A $2.3 million yearling purchase with all the pedigree in the world. He was closing like a freight train on the outside. Then you had Forever Young, the Japanese phenom trying to do what no Japanese horse had ever done: win the Run for the Roses. They were bumping. They were grinding. It was a physical, brutal final furlong.
But Mystik Dan had that inside position.
When the official sign finally flashed on the board, it confirmed what the slow-motion replays hinted at. Mystik Dan had held on. It was the first three-horse photo finish in the Kentucky Derby since 1947. Think about that. We hadn't seen a race this close in the lifetime of most people watching in the stands.
The odds? A cool 18-1. Not a total longshot like Rich Strike at 80-1, but definitely not the favorite.
Why This Win Was Different
Horse racing usually feels like a billionaire's playground. You see the same names: Pletcher, Baffert, Cox. But this win felt... local. It felt gritty.
Kenny McPeek, the trainer, and Brian Hernandez Jr. aren't the flashy "Hollywood" types of the backstretch. They’re based in Kentucky and Louisiana. They’re "lunch pail" horsemen. By winning the Derby with Mystik Dan, they completed a rare double—they had won the Kentucky Oaks the day before with a filly named Thorpedo Anna.
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Winning both the Oaks and the Derby in the same weekend is the equestrian equivalent of hitting a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth. It almost never happens. Ben Jones did it back in the 40s. Since then? Crickets. Until 2024.
The Pedigree Puzzle
People love to talk about "blood." Mystik Dan isn't exactly royalty, but he's got the right ingredients. He’s a son of Goldencents.
Now, Goldencents was a flyer. A miler. Most experts thought his offspring wouldn't have the "legs" to go the full 1 1/4 miles of the Derby. They thought Mystik Dan would hit a wall at the top of the stretch and fade into the background.
They were wrong.
The horse has a weirdly efficient stride. He doesn't waste energy. He stayed low to the ground, skipped over the dirt, and showed a level of "heart" that you can't really measure with a stopwatch. Sometimes, the blue-blooded million-dollar horses just don't want it as badly as the $10,000-stud-fee underdog.
The Controversy and the Japanese Surge
You can't talk about who won the Derby without mentioning the "what ifs."
Forever Young ran a monster race. He traveled halfway across the world, dealt with the massive crowds, and got stuck in a bumping match with Sierra Leone down the stretch. A lot of fans—especially the international ones—argued that if Sierra Leone hadn't leaned into him, Forever Young might have surged past.
Horse racing is a contact sport, though. The stewards didn't see enough to warrant a disqualification.
It highlights a massive shift in the sport. Japan is becoming a global powerhouse. They’re winning in Dubai, they’re winning at the Breeders' Cup, and they came within a few inches of taking the most prestigious trophy in American racing. The era of US dominance isn't over, but the walls are definitely closing in.
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Breaking Down the Winning Move
If you watch the replay, pay attention to the 1/4 pole.
Most jockeys start swinging wide there. They want "clear air." They're terrified of getting stopped in their tracks. Brian Hernandez Jr. did the opposite. He stayed inside. He stayed patient.
It’s called "painting the fence."
By staying on the rail, he saved probably 20 to 30 feet of actual distance compared to Sierra Leone, who was out in the middle of the track. In a race decided by an inch or two, that decision was the only reason Mystik Dan won. It was a masterclass in spatial awareness. If Hernandez panics and pulls outside, he loses by three lengths.
What Happened Next?
The Derby is just the first leg. After the high of Churchill Downs, the circus moved to the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.
The Triple Crown is the hardest thing to win in sports for a reason. Five weeks. Three tracks. Three different distances. It’s a grind that breaks most horses. Mystik Dan showed up for the Preakness, but the track was a muddy mess, and a fresh horse named Seize the Grey—trained by the legendary 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas—stole the show from the front.
Mystik Dan ran a brave second. He didn't win, but he proved the Derby wasn't a fluke. He’s a legitimate, top-tier athlete.
Betting Lessons from the 150th Derby
If you’re looking at future races, there are a few things Mystik Dan taught us.
First, ignore the "sprint" labels on pedigrees. If a horse is training well and looks relaxed, they can often stretch their speed further than the breeding experts claim.
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Second, look at the jockey-trainer combo. Hernandez and McPeek have worked together for years. They have a shorthand. They trust each other. In a high-pressure environment like the Derby, that trust translates into ballsy moves on the track.
Lastly, don't sleep on the "rail birds." If a horse has shown they aren't afraid of dirt hitting them in the face, the inside post isn't the death sentence it used to be.
Moving Forward in the 2026 Season
As we look at the current crop of three-year-olds heading toward the next set of Triple Crown races, the blueprint remains the same.
- Watch the speed figures: Look for horses that are improving their numbers every single start.
- Check the workouts: A horse that "gallops out" strongly after the finish line is usually a horse that wants more distance.
- Track the international shippers: The Japanese and European contingents are only getting stronger. They are no longer "tourists"; they are "contenders."
The 2024 Derby was a reminder that in racing, anything can happen. A nose can change a life. A rail-skimming move can turn a middle-of-the-pack horse into a legend. Whether you're a casual fan or a hardcore handicapper, that's why we keep coming back to the track.
To find the next horse that has the grit to hold off the world by eighteen inches.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the prep races at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. That’s where the next Mystik Dan is likely hiding right now, waiting for their chance to hug the rail and shock the world.
Check the injury reports weekly. A minor hoof issue in February can derail a Derby dream by May. If you're betting, always look for value in the 15-1 to 20-1 range; that's where the smartest money usually sits when the favorites are over-bet.
Follow the trainers who have "done it before." Success in the Derby isn't just about the horse; it's about the timing of the peak. Kenny McPeek proved that a well-timed peak is worth more than a two-million-dollar price tag.