Honestly, if you looked at the mvp nba this year race back in November, you probably thought we were headed for a boring, two-horse race. Nikola Jokic was doing Jokic things, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was right there, matching him blow for blow. It felt like a replay of last year. But then January hit, and the whole vibe of the league shifted.
Injuries changed everything.
Right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't just a favorite; he's basically sprinting toward his second straight trophy while everyone else is trying to figure out if they’ll even play enough games to qualify. The NBA’s 65-game rule is looming like a massive shadow over the ballot. You can't just be the best anymore; you have to be the most durable.
The Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Coronation
SGA is currently averaging 31.9 points per game. That’s elite, sure, but it’s the efficiency that makes your head spin. He’s shooting nearly 55% from the field as a guard. Think about that. Most guys taking that many shots are clanking a fair share, but Shai lives in the paint and at the free-throw line.
He’s the engine of an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is currently sitting at the top of the West. They’re on pace for nearly 68 wins, which is absurd for a team this young.
What’s wild is that he’s doing this while sitting out a massive chunk of fourth quarters. The Thunder are blowing people out so badly that Shai has sat the entire final frame in 16 of their first 38 games. If he actually played those minutes? He’d probably be averaging 35.
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Voters love a winner. They also love a guy who doesn't turn the ball over. Shai is giving them both.
The Nikola Jokic Health Crisis
Nikola Jokic was the leader for mvp nba this year until he hyperextended his left knee in December. Before the injury, he was literally averaging a triple-double: 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists. Those are video game numbers, the kind of stuff that usually ends the conversation before it starts.
But here’s the problem.
The NBA requires players to play at least 65 games to be eligible for major awards. Jokic has already missed a significant stretch. If he misses more than 17 games total this season, he’s out. Period.
Even though he's back to on-court workouts—Shams Charania reported he’s slightly ahead of schedule—the Nuggets have to be careful. Do you rush back your franchise cornerstone for an MVP trophy and risk a tear? Probably not. If Jokic drops out of eligibility, the race loses its biggest heavyweight.
The Lakers’ New Savior: Luka Doncic
Luka is in a weird spot. He’s putting up the most points in the league, averaging 33.6 per game. He’s also doing it in a Lakers jersey now, which adds a layer of "big market" spotlight he didn't have in Dallas.
Since the New Year, he’s been on a tear. Four straight games of 30+ points. A 38-point triple-double.
The Lakers are 23-12, which is better than most expected given LeBron James is 41 and has been in and out of the lineup. But the "Luka for MVP" narrative always hits the same wall: defense. While SGA is a menace on both ends, Luka still has those "matador" moments on the perimeter that annoy the old-school voters.
The Rise of the "Others"
There are a few names creeping up the ladder that nobody was talking about in October.
- Cade Cunningham: Detroit is actually good? Yeah, believe it. They are 28-9 and leading the Eastern Conference. Cade is the reason. He hasn’t scored under 27 points in the 2026 calendar year.
- Jaylen Brown: With Jayson Tatum missing time, Brown has stepped into the "1A" role in Boston. He dropped 50 earlier this month. He’s carrying the Celtics to a top-two seed, and people are finally noticing he’s more than just a second option.
- Victor Wembanyama: The stats are there (26.2 PPG, 12.9 RPG, and a league-leading 3.6 blocks). The highlights are definitely there. But the Spurs have him on a minutes restriction. It’s hard to be the MVP when you're playing 28 minutes a night while Shai and Luka are carrying 35+ minute loads.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Race
The biggest misconception about the mvp nba this year is that it’s just a stat contest. It isn't. It's a narrative contest.
Voter fatigue is a real thing. Jokic has three of these. If it's a tie between him and Shai, the voters are going to lean toward the "new" era, especially since Shai is leading the best team in the league.
Also, we need to talk about the "clutch" factor. Shai has been the most efficient high-volume scorer in the fourth quarter this season. When the game slows down, he just gets to his spot. It’s methodical. It’s boring in its perfection.
Actionable Insights for the Second Half
If you’re tracking this race or looking at the betting markets, keep your eyes on these three things.
First, watch the "Games Played" column for Jokic. The moment he hits 18 games missed, his odds will crater to zero. That is the single most important data point in the league right now.
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Second, look at the Thunder’s strength of schedule in March. If they hold onto the #1 seed in the West, SGA is a lock. If they slide to 3rd or 4th, the door opens for a guy like Cade Cunningham or Jaylen Brown to steal the "best player on the best team" narrative.
Lastly, pay attention to the head-to-head matchups. We have a Lakers vs. Thunder game coming up that will be billed as Luka vs. Shai. Those "primetime" moments stick in the brains of the media members who hold the ballots.
The race for the mvp nba this year is Shai’s to lose, but in a season defined by a 65-game threshold and a shifting landscape in the West, nothing is settled until the final whistle in April.