Numbers are weird. One day you’re reading a headline about a "historic crime wave" and the next, some analyst on the news is talking about "unprecedented declines." If you’re looking at the murder rate by cities in 2026, the reality is a bit of a head-spinner.
We’ve basically spent the last few years on a statistical roller coaster. First, there was the massive spike in 2020 and 2021. Now? We are seeing the back half of that hill. Data from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) and early 2026 reports from the Major Cities Chiefs Association show that for most of the country, the numbers are finally cooling off.
But "cooling off" doesn’t mean the same thing in St. Louis as it does in San Diego. Not even close.
Why the murder rate by cities is dropping (mostly)
Honestly, it’s about a return to "normal."
During the pandemic, the world sort of broke. Stresses were high, the streets were empty, and social services basically vanished. Adam Gelb, who leads the Council on Criminal Justice, has pointed out that the lack of people on the streets actually gave folks more opportunities to settle beefs without anyone watching.
Fast forward to right now.
In 2025, we saw a massive 20% drop in murders across nearly 600 jurisdictions. That's a huge deal. It’s one of the largest single-year declines we've ever seen in modern record-keeping. The FBI’s most recent data confirms that gun homicides specifically are falling faster than other types of violent crime.
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The cities leading the decline
Some places are making everyone else look bad—in a good way. Take Baltimore. For years, it was the poster child for urban violence. But according to year-end 2025 data, Baltimore saw a staggering 40% drop in homicides compared to its 2019 levels.
Then there’s Philadelphia.
They ended 2025 with about 222 homicides. That sounds like a lot until you remember that just a couple of years ago, they were staring down numbers closer to 500.
- New York City: Logged roughly 305 homicides in 2025. For a city of 8.4 million people, that’s an incredibly low rate of about 3.6 per 100,000.
- Detroit: Hit its lowest homicide count since the 1960s.
- Denver: Saw a 45% decrease in the first half of 2025 alone.
The "Murder Capital" problem: Who’s still struggling?
Numbers can be deceptive.
If a tiny town has one murder this year and two next year, the "rate" just doubled. 100% increase! Scary, right? But it’s just one extra person. In big cities, the volume is what matters.
St. Louis still sits at the top of many lists. Even with a 33% drop from its 2019 peak, the rate remains roughly 48 to 54 per 100,000 residents depending on which months you count. It’s a similar story in Memphis. While national rates plummet, Memphis actually saw some categories of violent crime increase or stay stubbornly high.
Memphis recorded roughly 184 homicides in 2025. For a city its size, that’s a rate of about 30 per 100,000. That is significantly higher than Chicago, which often gets much more "danger" press despite its rate being closer to 15 per 100,000.
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The outliers of 2026
Not everyone got the memo that crime is supposed to be down.
A few places are actually moving in the opposite direction.
- Omaha, Nebraska: Reported local increases in homicides and robberies even as the national average fell.
- Washington, D.C.: Had a rough start to 2025 with a 36% jump in the early months, though it started to level out toward the end of the year.
- Little Rock, Arkansas: Saw a 39% spike in the first half of 2025.
It’s a localized game. National trends are just an average. If your neighborhood is the one with the sirens every night, a "20% national decline" feels like a lie.
Global context: How the U.S. compares
If you want a real reality check, look at London or Paris.
A recent report from The Guardian in January 2026 showed that London’s murder rate dropped to 1.1 per 100,000 people.
Compare that to:
- London: 1.1
- Paris: 1.6
- New York City: 2.8
- Houston: 10.5
- Philadelphia: 14.1
Even our "safest" big cities are often twice as violent as European capitals. It’s a uniquely American cocktail of gun availability and income inequality that keeps our baseline higher than the rest of the developed world.
Moving beyond the headlines
So, what do you actually do with this?
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First, stop looking at "Total Murders." It’s a useless stat. Always look at the rate per 100,000. That’s the only way to compare a place like Columbus to a place like Chicago fairly.
Second, check the "Clearance Rate." This is the percentage of crimes that police actually solve. In 2021, the national murder clearance rate hit a historic low of 49.4%. It’s bounced back to about 61% in 2026. This is actually a bigger deal than the murder rate itself. When people think they can get away with it, they’re more likely to do it.
Actionable insights for your safety
If you’re moving or just trying to understand your own city’s risk, do these three things:
- Check the "Part I" Crimes: Murder is rare. You are way more likely to be a victim of "Aggravated Assault" or "Motor Vehicle Theft." Look at those numbers on your local police department’s transparency portal.
- Look at the Neighborhood Level: Crime is hyper-local. In cities like St. Louis or Chicago, 90% of the violence often happens in just 5% of the city’s blocks. A "dangerous city" usually has very safe pockets and very dangerous ones.
- Watch the "Drone as First Responder" (DFR) Programs: Cities like Arlington, TX, saw a 12% drop in crime by using drones to get to scenes before officers. If your city is investing in technology over just "more boots," the data suggests it actually works better.
The murder rate by cities in 2026 is a story of recovery. We are finally shaking off the chaos of the early 2020s. It’s not perfect, and for cities like Memphis or Birmingham, there’s a long way to go. But for the first time in a decade, the trend lines are finally pointing down.
To get the most accurate picture for your specific area, visit the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer or your local city’s "Open Data" portal. These sources provide month-over-month updates that are far more relevant than annual reports that are already out of date by the time they're printed. Keep an eye on the clearance rates in your precinct; they are often the best leading indicator of whether a downward trend will actually last.