You’ve probably seen the headlines. One week, a city is labeled the "murder capital," and the next, a politician is claiming crime has never been lower. It’s enough to give anyone whiplash. But if you actually dig into the raw numbers—the kind of stuff the FBI and the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) just finished tallying for 2025—the picture is a lot weirder than a simple "good" or "bad."
Honestly, looking at murder per capita US cities data is the only way to get a real sense of safety. Total murder counts are flashy, but they don't tell you much. If a city has 500 murders but 10 million people, it’s statistically safer than a town with 50 murders and only 50,000 people.
The Shocking Turn of 2025: A Tale of Two Trends
We are currently sitting in early 2026, and the final 2025 reports are finally painting a coherent picture. Most major cities saw a massive, almost historic, drop in violence. But it wasn't universal.
Take Detroit. For decades, Detroit was the poster child for urban decay and violence. But by the end of 2025, the city recorded only 165 homicides. That is the lowest number the "Motor City" has seen since the early 1960s. Chief Todd Bettison basically said that the combination of community prevention and new tech is finally hitting the mark.
Then you have the outliers.
While the national average plummeted by nearly 18% in some categories, cities like Little Rock and Virginia Beach bucked the trend entirely, seeing spikes in the double digits. It’s a reminder that crime is hyper-local. A national "downward trend" doesn't mean much if your specific neighborhood is struggling with a local gang dispute or a sudden vacuum in police staffing.
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Which Cities Actually Have the Highest Murder Rates?
If we look at the most recent per capita data (murders per 100,000 residents), the "usual suspects" often remain at the top, even if their total numbers are falling. This is because many of these cities are also losing population, which keeps the rate high.
St. Louis, Missouri
St. Louis consistently sits at or near #1. Even with a 33% drop in homicides over the last couple of years, the rate remains staggering—hovering around 69 per 100,000. It’s a small city geographically with a high concentration of poverty in specific northside pockets.
Baltimore, Maryland
Baltimore is another "rate" giant. However, 2025 was a breakthrough year. The city saw one of the largest percentage decreases in the country. At one point in mid-2025, the CCJ reported a 56% decrease compared to the pandemic peaks. That’s huge. But because the population is relatively small (roughly 560,000), even 130 murders in a year keep the per capita rate high enough to stay in the top five.
New Orleans, Louisiana
The "Big Easy" had a rough 2023 and 2024, but 2025 showed signs of a cool-down. Even so, it remains the "Murder Capital" of the South. The rate often fluctuates between 40 and 50 per 100,000. Interestingly, the deployment of National Guard members in late 2025 sparked a massive debate about whether "boots on the ground" actually stops murders or just shifts them to different wards.
Why the "Per Capita" Math Matters
Total numbers lie.
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Chicago almost always has the highest total number of murders in the US (over 400 in 2025). People see that and think it's the most dangerous place on Earth. But Chicago is massive. When you look at murder per capita US cities, Chicago’s rate is often around 15 per 100,000.
Compare that to Birmingham, Alabama.
Birmingham is much smaller, yet it saw 88 homicides in 2025. Because its population is under 200,000, its murder rate is nearly 45 per 100,000.
Statistically, you are nearly three times more likely to be a victim of homicide in Birmingham than in Chicago. That is the power of the per capita metric. It levels the playing field so you can compare a metropolis to a mid-sized city.
The Factors No One Wants to Talk About
Expert criminologists like Richard Rosenfeld have pointed out that we can't just credit (or blame) the police for these shifts.
- The "Great Unwinding": The chaos of 2020-2022—pandemic stress, court closures, and social unrest—has finally settled.
- The Gun Factor: In about 74% of US homicides, a firearm is used. Cities that have seen the biggest drops, like Philadelphia and Denver, have often focused specifically on "illegal carry" enforcement and ghost gun crackdowns.
- Clearance Rates: This is the big one. If the police don't catch the killer, the next murder is more likely to happen as a result of "street justice" or retaliation. Baltimore and Boston saw their rates drop as they hired more detectives and actually started solving more cases.
Misconceptions About Urban Safety
There's this idea that "blue cities" are war zones and "red states" are safe havens. The data doesn't really back that up.
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If you look at the top 10 list for murder per capita US cities, you'll find cities in Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana. Many of these are in states with very conservative leadership, yet the cities themselves face intense violence. Conversely, some of the safest large cities in the country—like San Diego or New York City—are in "blue" states.
Safety isn't about the party in charge; it’s about local economic stability, the relationship between the community and the police, and the availability of social services.
What You Should Actually Do With This Information
If you're looking at these stats because you're planning a move or just trying to stay informed, don't just look at the city-wide number.
- Check Neighborhood Maps: In almost every high-rate city, the violence is concentrated in just 2-3% of the street blocks.
- Look at Trends, Not Snapshots: A city with a rate of 20 that is dropping is often safer than a city with a rate of 10 that is doubling.
- Factor in Other Crimes: Sometimes a city has a high murder rate but very low property crime, or vice versa. Your actual "daily life" safety is usually more impacted by theft or assault than by homicide.
The national murder rate has officially hit its lowest point in years, matching pre-pandemic levels of about 5.0 per 100,000. That’s a massive win for public safety, even if it doesn't feel that way when you turn on the evening news.
Actionable Next Steps for Staying Safe and Informed
- Access the FBI Crime Data Explorer (CDE): This is the gold standard. You can filter by your specific city to see if the "murder per capita" is trending up or down over a five-year period.
- Follow AH Datalytics: Jeff Asher and his team provide the most up-to-date, non-partisan crime dashboards that often beat the official FBI reports by months.
- Engage with Local Police "Beat" Meetings: If you live in a high-rate city, these meetings are where the actual strategy is discussed. You'll learn which blocks are hot spots and what the city is doing to intervene.
- Support Community Violence Intervention (CVI) Programs: Data shows that programs like "violence interrupters"—which use former gang members to mediate disputes—are often more effective at lowering murder rates than traditional patrolling alone.