If you’ve been watching the market lately, you know the big pharma space feels like a constant game of musical chairs. One minute everyone is obsessed with weight-loss drugs, and the next, they’re scrambling back to the reliable dividend payers. MRK stock price today is sitting at $110.96. It’s been a bit of a tug-of-war. We saw it dip slightly by about 0.05% during the session, but honestly, that tiny wiggle doesn't tell the whole story.
To really get what's happening with Merck & Co., you have to look at the massive rally it just pulled off. We’re talking about a 32% jump over the last three months. That kind of movement for a company with a market cap of over $275 billion isn't just "noise." It's a signal. Investors are reacting to a mix of aggressive pipeline updates and a management team that is suddenly very loud about their long-term growth.
The $70 Billion Confidence Boost
Earlier this week, during the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM26), Merck CEO Rob Davis basically dropped a "confidence bomb" on the street. He raised the revenue target for the company's new growth drivers to $70 billion by the mid-2030s. That is a massive $20 billion increase from what they were saying just a year ago.
Specifically, the company is betting big on:
- Cardiometabolic and respiratory drugs: Now expected to bring in $5 billion more than previous estimates.
- Infectious diseases: A projected $10 billion jump.
- Ophthalmology: Moving from a vague "multibillion" estimate to a firm $5 billion-plus target.
It’s bold. You’ve got to admire the nerve it takes to stand up in front of analysts and say the dreaded "patent cliff" is actually just a "shallow hill."
Keytruda: The Elephant in the Room
You can't talk about MRK stock price today without talking about Keytruda. It’s the best-selling drug in the world, and it accounts for more than 50% of Merck's pharmaceutical sales. In the first nine months of 2025 alone, it pulled in $23.3 billion.
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The big fear has always been 2028. That’s when Keytruda loses its patent protection in the U.S. Traditionally, when a "blockbuster" drug goes off-patent, revenue falls off a cliff as cheap generics flood the market. But Merck is playing a clever game of chess here.
They recently got FDA approval for Keytruda Qlex, a subcutaneous (under-the-skin) version of the drug. Why does this matter? Because it’s way faster for patients than a long IV drip, and more importantly for investors, it comes with a fresh set of patents. These patents could stretch Merck’s dominance in the oncology space well into the 2030s, effectively blunting the impact of the 2028 cliff.
What the Analysts are Saying Right Now
Wall Street is currently split, which is exactly why the MRK stock price today is so interesting to watch. You have some folks like BMO Capital and Wolfe Research who are pounding the table. Wolfe recently upgraded the stock to an "Outperform" rating with a price target of $135. They see the margin expansion—which jumped to nearly 30% recently—as a sign that Merck is becoming a leaner, meaner profit machine.
On the flip side, you have the skeptics at Zacks and Morgan Stanley. They aren't "bears" in the traditional sense, but they’re cautious. Morgan Stanley has a price target down at $101, suggesting the recent 32% rally might have already priced in all the good news.
The Dividend Factor
For a lot of people, Merck is a "sleep well at night" stock because of the dividend. On January 8, 2026, the company paid out its latest quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share. That puts the annual payout at $3.40, yielding roughly 3.1%.
When you compare that to the broader market, it’s a solid, reliable income stream. The payout ratio is hovering around 37%, which means the dividend is well-covered by earnings. They aren't stretching themselves thin to pay you.
Key Financial Metrics to Watch
- Forward P/E Ratio: Currently around 13.6x, which is actually a discount compared to the industry average of 15.3x.
- Recent Earnings: Q3 2025 was a "beat and raise" quarter. They reported $2.58 per share against the $2.36 expected.
- Next Earnings Date: Mark your calendars for February 3, 2026. This will be the big one where they report full-year 2025 results and provide official 2026 guidance.
Is Merck Actually Undervalued?
If you look at a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, some models suggest the "fair value" of Merck is closer to $160. That would mean the MRK stock price today is trading at a significant discount.
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But—and this is a big "but"—valuation is subjective. The market is discounting Merck because of the uncertainty around China (where Gardasil sales recently slumped by 40%) and the legislative pressure on drug pricing in the U.S. through the Inflation Reduction Act.
Basically, you’re getting a high-quality company at a lower price because of "headline risk." If you believe management can execute on that $70 billion pipeline promise, today's price looks like a bargain. If you think the 2028 cliff is going to be more painful than they're admitting, you might want to wait for a deeper pullback.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you are holding MRK or thinking about jumping in, here is how to play the current setup:
- Monitor the Feb 3rd Earnings: Pay close attention to the 2026 revenue guidance. If they forecast anything above $65 billion, the stock likely clears its recent highs of $113.
- Watch the 50-Day Moving Average: The stock has been trending above its 50-day and 200-day averages since November. If it breaks below $108, the bullish momentum might be stalling.
- Pipeline Updates: Look for news on "KANDLELIT-007" or other Phase 3 trials involving Keytruda combinations. These are the true catalysts for long-term value.
- Dividend Reinvestment: If you’re a long-term holder, the 3.1% yield is your best friend. Reinvesting those quarterly $0.85 payments during periods of consolidation is a classic way to build wealth in big pharma.
The bottom line? Merck is no longer just a "legacy" pharma company waiting for its patents to expire. It’s actively reinventing itself. Whether it succeeds depends on those $70 billion projections becoming a reality.