You've probably seen the tickers flashing green lately for MP Materials Corp (NYSE: MP). It's been a wild ride. Honestly, if you looked at this stock two years ago, you were looking at a mining company that was basically a glorified middleman for China. They dug stuff up in California, shipped it across the ocean, and waited for someone else to turn it into something useful.
But it’s 2026. The story has fundamentally shifted.
The stock closed around $68.98 last Friday, capping off a massive run that has seen the share price climb over 200% in just a year. Why? Because MP isn't just a "hole in the ground" company anymore. They are becoming the Western world's best shot at a vertically integrated rare earth supply chain. If you’re holding MP materials corp stock or thinking about it, you need to understand the "Pentagon Put" and why mid-2026 is the date everyone is circling on their calendars.
The $110 Floor: A Game Changer for MP Materials Corp Stock
For a long time, the biggest bear case against MP was the "China Squeeze." Historically, whenever a Western competitor tried to scale up rare earth production, prices would mysteriously plummet, making the Western project go bust.
That risk just got neutered.
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) didn't just give MP a pat on the back; they became a partner. In late 2025, a price protection agreement kicked in that sets a $110 per kilogram floor for Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide. Think about that. If the global market crashes, the Pentagon effectively steps in to ensure MP stays profitable. It's a strategic safety net that has fundamentally re-rated how analysts like those at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs view the company's risk profile.
They even took a 15% equity stake. The government is literally a shareholder now.
What’s Happening in Mountain Pass?
Mountain Pass is the legendary mine in California where all this happens. Right now, it’s a hive of activity.
- Stage II is the focus: They are ramping up the separation of NdPr. In Q3 2025, they hit a record of 721 metric tons of NdPr production.
- The Heavy Stuff: By mid-2026, MP expects to start commissioning its heavy rare earth facility. This is where they’ll process dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb).
- The Saudi Connection: They’ve teamed up with Maaden (Saudi Arabian Mining Company) to look at refining ventures. It’s a global play.
The GM and Apple Factor
It’s one thing to dig rocks; it’s another to make the magnets that power an EV or an iPhone.
General Motors is already deeply embedded here. They’ve been working on qualifying MP’s permanent magnets for their vehicle fleet. We’re looking at magnet sales to GM starting in the second half of 2026. This isn't theoretical—it's part of a multi-year supply deal that makes GM one of the only U.S. automakers with a domestic supply of the magnets needed for electric motors.
Then there’s Apple.
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They dropped $500 million into a partnership with MP for recycled rare earth magnets. MP is building out a dedicated recycling line to handle this. Apple already gave them a $40 million "down payment" to get the ball rolling. This gives the company "demand visibility" that most mining stocks would kill for.
Why Some People Are Still Nervous
No stock goes up 240% in a year without some people getting the jitters. The valuation is definitely "premium."
You have to acknowledge the risks. Scaling a magnet factory in Texas isn't as easy as flipping a switch. There have been delays before, and there could be delays again. Plus, MP still relies on Shenghe for a huge chunk of their current revenue while they transition away from Chinese processing.
Also, we’re looking at a P/E ratio that looks pretty scary on paper because the company is just now turning the corner into consistent profitability. Analysts expect an EPS of around $0.63 for the full year 2026, which is a massive jump from the losses of 2025. But if they miss those ramp-up targets, the "momentum" crowd might head for the exits.
2026 Estimates at a Glance
| Metric | 2026 Forecast |
|---|---|
| Consensus EPS | ~$0.37 - $0.63 |
| Estimated Revenue | ~$570M - $591M |
| Heavy Rare Earth Start | Mid-2026 |
| GM Magnet Sales | H2 2026 |
The Reality of the "Critical Mineral" Trade
Most people treat MP materials corp stock like a tech play. It’s not. It’s an infrastructure play.
The U.S. government has realized that without these magnets, the "green transition" and the "defense build-out" are both dead in the water. You can't build a F-35 or a wind turbine without what MP is pulling out of the ground in California.
This geopolitical tailwind is why the "high" analyst price targets are creeping up toward $112. Even the median targets are sitting around $79-$80, which suggests there's still meat on the bone even after this recent rally.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at MP today, keep your eyes on the February 20, 2026 earnings call. That’s when the management will likely give the most concrete updates on the Texas magnet facility's progress.
- Monitor the "Heavy" Transition: The mid-2026 deadline for heavy rare earth (Dy/Tb) separation is the next big catalyst. Success there means MP can supply the full spectrum of magnet needs, not just the basics.
- Watch the GM Qualification: Any news about GM officially "signing off" on the Texas-made magnets will likely trigger another leg up.
- Check the Floor: Keep an eye on global NdPr prices. As long as they stay near or below $110/kg, MP’s contract with the DoD acts as a massive competitive advantage over other Western juniors who don't have that protection.
- Position Sizing: Given the 1-year volatility of nearly 0.95, this isn't a "widows and orphans" stock. It’s a high-conviction play on American industrial re-shoring.
The era of "digging and shipping" is over for Mountain Pass. The era of "made in America" magnets is starting. Whether the stock can maintain its $60+ levels depends entirely on the execution of that Texas factory over the next six months.
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Disclaimer: This article represents an analysis of market trends and publicly available financial data as of January 2026. I am not a financial advisor. Stock investments carry inherent risks, and you should perform your own due diligence before making any trade.