So, you’re thinking about it again. Every time an election cycle swings around and the political temperature in the States hits a boiling point, the "Move to Canada" Google searches spike like a heart rate monitor during a horror movie. Honestly, it’s basically an American tradition at this point. But here’s the thing: Canada isn’t just a "backup plan" you can activate with a quick flight to Toronto. It’s a sovereign country with its own increasingly complicated, points-based gatekeeping system.
If you’re looking at moving to Canada if Trump wins, you need to realize the landscape in 2026 is vastly different than it was in 2016. Back then, things felt a bit more "open door." Today? The Canadian government is actually tightening the screws. They’ve recently slashed their immigration targets for 2025 and 2026. They are trying to "pause" population growth because, frankly, the housing market in cities like Vancouver and Toronto is beyond a nightmare.
You can’t just show up at the Peace Bridge with a U-Haul and a dream. You need a strategy.
The 534-Point Wall: Why Express Entry is Harder Than You Think
Most people think they’ll just apply for "Express Entry." It sounds fast, right? It’s in the name. But Express Entry is basically a competitive reality show for overachievers. You get points for being young, having a Master’s degree, speaking perfect English (and ideally French), and having years of specialized work experience.
In early 2026, the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores required to get an invitation have been hovering around 511 to 534 for general draws. That is a massive number. To give you some perspective, a 30-year-old with a Master’s degree and three years of work experience might only hit the high 400s.
Unless you are a "unicorn" candidate, you might find yourself staring at a wall.
The Secret Backdoors (That Aren't Actually Secrets)
If you don't hit that elite score, don't panic yet. Canada has started doing "category-based" draws. This is where they ignore the top scores and pick people based on what the country actually needs. Right now, if you work in healthcare, certain trades (like carpentry or plumbing), or STEM, your "lower" score of 470 might suddenly be enough.
Also, and I cannot stress this enough: French is a superpower. If you can pass a French proficiency test (the TEF or TCF), your chances of moving to Canada skyrocket. The Canadian government is obsessed with hitting its Francophone immigration targets—aiming for about 8.5% to 10.5% of all immigrants to be French speakers outside of Quebec by 2028. A mediocre French score can sometimes be worth more than a PhD in terms of points.
The CUSMA Advantage: The Professional's Fast Track
If you’re a US citizen, you have a "cheat code" that most of the world doesn't: the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). This is the successor to NAFTA.
If your job is on the "CUSMA Professionals" list—think accountants, engineers, graphic designers, or even hoteliers—you can get a work permit much faster than a standard visa. The best part? You don't necessarily need a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA). That's the tedious process where a Canadian boss has to prove to the government that no Canadian can do the job.
Under CUSMA, you basically just need a job offer from a Canadian company, your degree, and a bit of paperwork at the border or online. It’s temporary, usually lasting three years, but it gets your foot in the door. Once you’re working in Canada, you gain "Canadian Experience" points, which makes that 534-point Express Entry wall much easier to climb later.
Digital Nomads: Can You Just "Work From B.C.?"
Maybe you want to keep your US job and just live in a cabin in Banff? Canada’s "Digital Nomad" strategy technically allows this. As a US citizen, you can enter Canada as a visitor for up to six months. During that time, you can legally work remotely for your US employer.
But be careful. You can't stay forever. You are a visitor. You can't use the Canadian healthcare system (you’ll need private insurance), and you can't send your kids to public school for free. If you stay longer than 183 days, you might accidentally become a Canadian tax resident, and trust me, you do not want to navigate dual-country tax filings without a very expensive accountant.
The Reality Check: Costs and Logistics
Let’s talk money. Canada is expensive. Like, "why is this block of cheese $15?" expensive.
If you’re moving through the Federal Skilled Worker program, the government literally requires you to prove you have "settlement funds." For a single person in 2026, that’s roughly $14,690 CAD in the bank. For a family of four? You're looking at over $27,000 CAD just to be allowed in.
And then there's the housing.
In Toronto, a one-bedroom apartment will easily set you back $2,500 a month. In Vancouver, it’s often more. Many Americans who move north for political reasons find themselves moving back a year later because the "cost of living" politics hit harder than the "White House" politics.
The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
If the federal government says no, ask the provinces. Places like Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia have their own immigration streams. They need people. If you’re willing to live in Regina instead of Toronto, they might "nominate" you. A provincial nomination gives you an automatic 600 points in the Express Entry pool. It’s basically a "get out of jail free" card for the immigration process.
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Actionable Next Steps if You're Serious
Don't just vent on X (formerly Twitter). If you are actually looking at moving to Canada if Trump wins, start these three things today:
- Get Your Degree Evaluated: Canada won't just take your word for it that you graduated from Penn State. You need an Educational Credential Assessment (ECA) from a place like WES. It takes months. Get it done now.
- Book an IELTS or CELPIP Test: Even if you’ve spoken English since you were three, you have to prove it. These test slots fill up fast during election years.
- Calculate Your Score: Use the official "CRS Tool" on the IRCC website. Be honest. If your score is under 480, you need to look at CUSMA work permits or Provincial Nominee Programs rather than straight Express Entry.
Moving countries is a massive, bureaucratic, and emotional undertaking. It's not a "Plan B"—it’s a life-changing "Plan A."
The door to the North isn't locked, but the "Welcome" mat has been replaced with a very long, very detailed application form. If you want to cross that border, start your paperwork before the first primary results even come in.