Most Recent Mock NFL Draft: Why Fernando Mendoza Is Now the Lock for No. 1

If you’ve been paying attention to the college football landscape lately, you know the vibes have shifted. The most recent mock nfl draft boards are looking wildly different than they did even a month ago. For a long time, we all just assumed Oregon’s Dante Moore would be the guy. But then, real life happened. Moore decided to head back to Eugene for another year, and suddenly, the Las Vegas Raiders—who just clinched the number one overall pick—have a very clear path toward their next franchise savior.

The Fernando Mendoza Takeover

Honestly, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the story of the year. He didn't just win the Heisman; he basically carried the Hoosiers to the brink of a national title. Most experts, including the folks over at PFF and CBS Sports, have him cemented at the top of their most recent mock nfl draft lists. We’re talking about a kid who put up a 41-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s not just good; it’s statistically absurd.

Vegas is sitting there at 3-14. Pete Carroll is out. Geno Smith’s future is a giant question mark. If you’re the Raiders, you don't overthink this. You take the 6-foot-5 kid with the lightning release and you start over.

What’s happening at the top?

The draft order for the non-playoff teams is locked in. It’s a weird year where four teams finished 3-14, but thanks to strength of schedule tiebreakers, the Raiders get the pole position. Here is how the top of the board is shaking out in the most recent mock nfl draft cycles:

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana.
2. New York Jets: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (or a trade down).
3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami.
4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State.
5. New York Giants: Carnell Tate (if Jets pass) or Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame.

The Jets are in a weird spot. With Dante Moore staying in school, they don't have a clear "consensus" QB2 to grab at second overall. Some mocks have them pivoting to defense with Clemson’s Peter Woods, but a lot of scouts think they’ll try to trade back to a team desperate for Ty Simpson or Trinidad Chambliss.

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Defense Is Actually the Secret Strength of 2026

Everyone focuses on the quarterbacks, but the real meat of this class is on the defensive side of the ball. Arvell Reese from Ohio State is basically a unicorn. He plays linebacker but has the frame to eventually develop into a pure edge rusher. Think Micah Parsons vibes.

Then you have David Bailey out of Texas Tech. He led the nation in sacks with 15. If he’s sitting there at pick six or seven, someone is getting a steal. The Bengals, currently projected at pick 10, would likely sprint to the podium if he fell that far.

Why the "Safe" Picks Might Win

Look at the offensive line. It’s deep.
Francis Mauigoa and Spencer Fano are both top-10 locks in almost every most recent mock nfl draft. Arizona needs help everywhere, but protecting whoever they have at QB is priority one. Mauigoa is a mountain of a man who anchored the Miami line all season. He's the kind of "boring" pick that wins divisions five years down the road.

The Skill Position Wildcards

Jeremiyah Love is that guy. The Notre Dame back has been compared to Bijan Robinson for a reason. He’s got soft hands, breakaway speed, and he’s a nightmare in the open field. While the Cardinals are a dark horse for him at three, he’s more likely to land in the 8-12 range unless a team like the Giants decides they want a total offensive overhaul.

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And don't sleep on the receivers.
Carnell Tate is the "cleanest" prospect in the group. He separates at an elite level. Jordyn Tyson from Arizona State is another name flying up boards. The Browns, picking at six, desperately need a primary target. Tyson’s PFF receiving grade over the last two years is nearly 90.0, which is usually a "see ball, get ball" indicator for NFL success.

Actionable Draft Insights for Fans

If you're trying to make sense of the noise before the April 23 kickoff in Pittsburgh, keep these things in mind:

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• Watch the Trade Market: The Jets at No. 2 are the pivot point. If they don't love Ty Simpson, they will move that pick to a QB-needy team like the Raiders (to swap) or the Browns.
• The Moore Effect: Dante Moore staying at Oregon has pushed the value of secondary QBs like Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Fernando Mendoza through the roof.
• Defensive Depth: If your team is picking in the teens, they are likely going to land a Pro-Bowl caliber defender. This class is loaded with CBs like Mansoor Delane and Jermod McCoy.

The most recent mock nfl draft data shows that the gap between the No. 1 pick and the rest of the top 10 is widening. Mendoza is the clear prize. After that, it’s a total scramble for elite traits on defense and offensive line stability. Keep an eye on the Senior Bowl and the Combine; with so many underclassmen like Arvell Reese and Carnell Tate declaring early, the medical checks will be just as important as the 40-yard dash times.

Check the current draft order frequently as the playoffs conclude. The final spots for the Super Bowl contenders will flip-flop based on who hoists the trophy, but for the teams at the bottom, the clock is already ticking on the Mendoza era.