If you’ve been watching the Mondelez International Inc share price lately, you’ve probably felt a bit of a sugar crash. Honestly, it’s been a weird year for the company that basically owns your pantry. While we’re all still eating Oreos and Ritz crackers like there’s no tomorrow, the stock market hasn't been quite as hungry for MDLZ shares.
As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $57.41. That’s a far cry from the $71 highs we saw not too long ago.
The Bittersweet Reality of Cocoa
You can't talk about Mondelez without talking about chocolate. It’s their bread and butter, or more accurately, their cocoa and sugar. But here’s the kicker: cocoa prices went absolutely ballistic over the last eighteen months. We’re talking "triple the price" levels of insanity.
Why? Bad harvests in West Africa.
Dirk Van de Put, the CEO, has been pretty transparent about this. He mentioned in late 2025 that the company was navigating "unprecedented" inflation. When the cost of your main ingredient spikes, you have two choices: raise prices or eat the cost. Mondelez did a bit of both. They pushed through price hikes, which kept the revenue looking decent, but it scared off some shoppers. Volume—the actual amount of stuff people bought—dipped by about 3.5% in the early part of last year.
Why the Mondelez International Inc Share Price is Twitchy
Investors hate uncertainty. Right now, there are a few things making the market nervous about MDLZ.
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- The "Ultra-Processed" Headache: Recently, some folks in Washington started making noise about new food pyramids and cracking down on ultra-processed foods. If you're a company that sells cookies and chocolate, that’s not exactly the news you want to hear.
- The Product Recalls: In late 2025, there was a string of voluntary recalls for Chips Ahoy! Baked Bites and some Ritz products. While they were "voluntary" and "precautionary," the market reacted like a kid finding out their Halloween candy was taken away. The price slipped a bit every time a new notice hit the wires.
- Consumer Fatigue: Let's be real—$6 for a box of crackers is a lot. In mature markets like North America, people are starting to swap name brands for generic store labels.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom.
Emerging markets are carrying the team right now. While North American sales were a bit sluggish, Latin America and parts of Asia saw organic growth of nearly 5%. People in growing economies are developing a serious taste for Cadbury and Milka, and that’s a massive safety net for the Mondelez International Inc share price.
What the Analysts are Whispering
Wall Street is currently "cautiously optimistic," which is finance-speak for "we like it, but we’re waiting for a sign."
Wells Fargo recently dropped their price target from $72 down to $62. That sounds bad, but keep in mind the stock is currently trading below that, so they still see some upside. UBS also trimmed their target to $60. On the flip side, you have firms like Mizuho maintaining an "Outperform" rating, even if they lowered the target to $67.
The consensus seems to be that the worst of the cocoa inflation is behind us. There are reports of a "bumper crop" coming out of West Africa for the 2025/2026 season. If those beans start flowing and prices drop, Mondelez's margins are going to look a lot tastier by the end of the year.
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Is the Dividend Enough to Save It?
One thing Mondelez has always been good at is paying its shareholders to stay patient. They just paid out a $0.50 per share dividend on January 14, 2026.
At current prices, the yield is sitting around 3.48%.
That’s a solid paycheck for just sitting on the stock. They also spent about $1.8 billion on share repurchases through the first three quarters of 2025. When a company buys back its own shares, it's usually a signal that they think the stock is undervalued. Or, at the very least, they want to prop up the price by reducing the supply.
Looking Toward the February Earnings
Everyone is circling February 3, 2026, on their calendars. That’s when the Q4 and full-year 2025 results drop.
This report is a big deal.
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Investors want to see if the "peak cocoa costs" Van de Put talked about actually happened in Q3. If the margins started recovering in the final months of 2025, we could see a quick rebound in the Mondelez International Inc share price. But if volumes continue to slide in the US, it might stay in this $55-$58 range for a while.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're holding MDLZ or thinking about jumping in, here’s how to play it:
- Watch the Cocoa Grind: Keep an eye on agricultural reports from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Better weather there usually means a better share price for Mondelez.
- Don't Ignore the Dollar: Mondelez does a ton of business overseas. A weaker US dollar actually helps them because those Euros and Pesos convert back into more dollars on the balance sheet.
- The $51 Floor: The 52-week low is $51.20. Historically, the stock has found a lot of support near that level. If it dips toward $52 again, it might be a "buy the dip" moment for long-term believers.
- Income Play: If you’re just in it for the dividend, the current volatility doesn't change much. The company’s free cash flow is still projected to be over $3 billion, which easily covers those quarterly checks.
Bottom line? Mondelez isn't a high-flying tech stock. It's a slow-and-steady snack giant that hit a massive speed bump in the form of expensive cocoa beans. It’s a classic case of a good company dealing with a bad commodity cycle. Once the supply chain stabilizes, the focus will shift back to the fact that people simply aren't going to stop eating chocolate.
Next Steps for Your Portfolio
Check your exposure to the consumer staples sector. If you already own stocks like Hershey (HSY) or PepsiCo (PEP), you’re already feeling the same pressures that are hitting the Mondelez International Inc share price. For those looking for a entry point, waiting for the February 3rd earnings call to confirm margin recovery is the safest bet. If the company reaffirms its mid-single-digit growth targets for 2026, the current $57 price point might look like a bargain by summer.