If you’ve spent any time on Twins Twitter lately, you know the vibe. It’s a mix of cautious optimism and that classic Minnesota "waiting for the other shoe to drop" dread. Honestly, looking at the mn twins pitching rotation for 2026, it’s not as simple as just penciling in five names and calling it a day.
There’s drama. There’s a $500,000 arbitration gap making things awkward with the team's most consistent arm. There are prospects with "triple-digit heat" who can’t find the strike zone with a GPS. Basically, it's a jigsaw puzzle where half the pieces are still in the mail.
The Big Three: Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Forearms
Let’s be real. If Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober aren’t healthy, the Twins are cooked. These three are the spine of the staff.
Pablo López is the ace. Period. But that mild right mid-forearm strain at the end of 2025? It’s lingering in the back of everyone’s mind. He posted a 2.74 ERA in 14 starts last year before the body started acting up. If he’s back to the guy who threw 194 innings in 2023, the Twins have a chance to win the AL Central. If not? Well, things get ugly fast.
Then there’s Joe Ryan. You’ve probably heard he’s skipping TwinsFest. People are panicking, thinking a trade to the Mets is imminent. Look, the guy just had a kid—Rowan, born in November—and he’s also $500k apart from the team in arbitration ($6.35 million vs $5.85 million). It’s probably just a "new dad" thing mixed with a "pay me what I'm worth" thing. On the mound, he’s coming off a 3.42 ERA season where he looked like an All-Star. He’s the most "vibes-heavy" pitcher in the league, and the Twins need that energy.
Bailey Ober is the wild card here. He’s 6-foot-9, looks like he’s throwing from second base, but his 2025 was... rough. A 5.10 ERA and a drop in velocity have people worried. He avoided arbitration at $5.2 million, which is a "prove it" deal if I’ve ever seen one. If the velocity doesn't come back, he might find himself in the bullpen by June.
The Battle for the Back End: Who’s Actually Starting?
This is where the mn twins pitching rotation gets murky. You have about six guys fighting for two spots.
- Simeon Woods Richardson: He’s probably got the inside track on the No. 4 spot. He’s reliable, doesn’t beat himself, and has finally settled into his role.
- Zebby Matthews: The name alone is an 80-grade tool. He’s got elite control, but can he miss enough bats at the MLB level?
- David Festa: He was dealing with shoulder inflammation late last year. He got Botox injections in September to help with the issues—yes, really—and is supposed to be full-go for spring.
Then you have the trade acquisitions. Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. Abel is the classic "too good for Triple-A, not quite ready for the show" guy. He struck out 114 in 98 innings at St. Paul but got rocked for a 6.23 ERA in his brief MLB stint.
"Injuries, regression and disappointment are likely to occur," says every Twins fan ever. It's the Minnesota mantra.
The "New Kids" and the Wild Cards
Keep an eye on Kendry Rojas. The Twins caught a lot of heat for trading Louis Varland to get him. Rojas struggled in Triple-A (6.59 ERA), but his stuff is nasty. We’re talking mid-90s heat with a slider that disappears. If he figures out the command, he’s a mid-season call-up that could change the ceiling of this rotation.
And don't sleep on Riley Quick. The Twins took him in the first round of the 2025 draft. While he’s a long shot to start 2026 in the bigs, he’s the kind of power arm this system has lacked for a decade.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception? That the Twins need to go buy a veteran "innings eater."
They don't.
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They have the volume. Between Festa, Matthews, Abel, and Woods Richardson, they have enough arms to fill out a rotation. What they need is peak performance from the top. If Joe Ryan is distracted by arbitration or Pablo's forearm acts up again, it doesn't matter how many 5th-starter types they have.
The rotation isn't thin; it's just fragile.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're tracking this team as a fan or for fantasy purposes, here is how you should actually watch the spring training battles:
- Watch Ober’s Radar Gun: If he’s sitting 91-92 mph in March, buy. If he’s at 89 mph, stay away.
- The "Festa" Health Check: Shoulder inflammation is a "wait and see" situation. If he’s not throwing bullpens by mid-February, he’s starting the year on the IL.
- Joe Ryan’s Body Language: If the arbitration goes to a hearing, things could get salty. Watch how he interacts with the front office in Fort Myers.
- The "Zebby" Factor: If Matthews continues to walk fewer than two batters per nine innings in the spring, he’s starting over Abel.
The mn twins pitching rotation is basically a high-stakes game of Jenga right now. One wrong move, or one bad MRI, and the whole thing topples. But if it stays upright? It’s actually one of the deeper groups in the American League.
Next Steps for Twins Fans: Track the official spring training reporting dates in mid-February. Pay specific attention to the velocity readings from the first three "A" games in the Grapefruit League, as that will tell you more about Bailey Ober’s future than any press release ever will.