MN High School Basketball Rankings: Why the Polls Don't Tell the Whole Story

MN High School Basketball Rankings: Why the Polls Don't Tell the Whole Story

Ranking high schoolers is basically a fool’s errand, yet we can’t stop doing it. Every Monday morning, thousands of parents, coaches, and teenagers across the Bold North refresh their screens to see where their squad landed.

The current mn high school basketball rankings are a chaotic mess right now. Honestly, that's exactly how it should be in mid-January. We just hit the point in the season where tired legs and conference rivalries start to expose the "paper tigers" in the top ten. If you’re looking for a predictable season, you're in the wrong state.

The Class 4A Power Vacuum

For a while there, Wayzata looked untouchable. They were sitting at the top of the mountain, looking down at everyone else after disposing of Buffalo 91-60. Christian Wiggins and Nolen Anderson have been playing like they've already got college scholarships in their pockets—which, well, they do. But then they ran into Maple Grove on January 13.

Maple Grove won.

That single result threw the Class 4A rankings into a blender. When the No. 1 team falls, everyone starts looking at Tartan. The Titans are sitting there at 9-0, essentially untested until this recent stretch. They’ve got K.J. Wilson Jr. dropping nearly 30 a night, and they don't seem to care about the "big school" hype surrounding the Lake Conference.

Who is actually the best?

If you're looking at the pure talent, you've gotta talk about Hopkins and Cretin-Derham Hall. CDH is the only unbeaten team left in Suburban East play. Ty Schlagel just crossed the 1,000-point mark for his career, and he's doing it with a level of physicality that most high schoolers just can't match.

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But then there's the QRF (Quality Results Formula). If you look at the math, schools like Rosemount and Minnetonka are often rated higher than the human polls suggest. Why? Because they play a schedule that would make a D3 college coach sweat.

Richfield and the Class 3A Civil War

Moving down to Class 3A, we have what might be the most intense rivalry in the state this year. Richfield and Totino-Grace are neck-and-neck.

Richfield is 12-0. They aren't just winning; they are dismantling people. Gideon Horne and Tyrece Hagler are a two-headed monster that most 3A defenses have no answer for. They just took down Minneapolis Southwest by 23 points like it was a light practice.

However, Totino-Grace is the three-time defending state champ. You don't just bet against that kind of pedigree. Their only losses are to top-tier 4A schools. In the eyes of most scouts, a loss to a 4A powerhouse is worth more than a win against a struggling 3A opponent.

  • Richfield: Unbeaten, high-flying, massive momentum.
  • Totino-Grace: Battle-tested, championship DNA, Dothan Ijadimbola leading the way.
  • St. Paul Johnson: The dark horse. 8-0 and quietly climbing the ranks while everyone else focuses on the private schools.

The Small School Drama

Don't sleep on the "little guys." Class 2A is currently being ruled by Belle Plaine, but it’s a fragile lead. They recently dropped a game to St. Peter, proving that anyone can get caught looking ahead.

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In Class 1A, Henning and Red Lake County are the stories. Red Lake County is 10-0, largely thanks to a defense that treats every possession like it’s the state final. It’s gritty. It’s loud. It’s exactly what Minnesota basketball is supposed to be.

The Girls' Side: A Battle of Giants

The girls' mn high school basketball rankings are just as top-heavy. Hopkins is usually the default No. 1, and for good reason. They are 13-1 and playing at a pace that is frankly exhausting to watch.

But Rosemount is right there. They are 11-0 (or 13-0 depending on which data set you trust more this week) and they don't beat themselves. They don't turn the ball over. They don't take bad shots. It’s surgical.

In Class 2A, Providence Academy is the team everyone loves to hate because they win so much. They're 9-3, but those three losses aren't "bad" losses. When you play a national schedule, your ranking takes a hit, but your team gets better.

Why the Rankings are Kinda Wrong

Here is the secret: the rankings don't account for "The Flu." Or mid-terms. Or a gym that has a dead spot on the floor.

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In Minnesota, we have the "Section Tournament" system. You could be ranked No. 1 in the state for four months, lose one game in the section finals, and your season is over. You don't even go to State.

That’s why teams like Orono or Alexandria are so dangerous. They might be ranked 6th or 7th right now, but they are built for March. They have coaches who have been there before. They have players who aren't worried about how many "stars" are next to their name on a recruiting website.

What to Watch This Week

The calendar is about to get very interesting. We have huge matchups like:

  1. Totino-Grace vs. Richfield: The 1 vs 2 battle that everyone has circled.
  2. Cretin-Derham Hall vs. Forest Lake: A massive Suburban East test.
  3. Montevideo vs. Morris Area: A Class 2A showdown for western Minnesota supremacy.

Actionable Steps for Fans and Players

If you’re a player, stop looking at the polls. They don't give out trophies in January. Coaches are looking for consistency, not a one-week spike in the rankings.

For the fans, the best way to support is to actually show up. The atmosphere in a packed MN gym during a Top 10 matchup is better than any professional game. Check the MSHSL website for updated section standings, as those are the "rankings" that actually determine who gets a home-court advantage in the playoffs.

Keep an eye on the QRF scores if you want a more "objective" look at the field, but remember that heart and hustle can't be put into a spreadsheet.

Next Steps for Tracking MN Basketball:

  • Check the MN Basketball News updates every Tuesday for the most recent coaches' poll results.
  • Use the MSHSL Brackets tool starting in February to see how your team's ranking translates to their playoff seed.
  • Follow local beat writers on social media for real-time score updates, as many "official" ranking sites can be 24-48 hours behind the actual results.