Let’s be real for a second. Looking at the mlb west national league standings right now—specifically as we head toward the 2026 season—feels a bit like watching a high-stakes poker game where one guy at the table has a mountain of chips and everyone else is just trying to stay in the hand.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are that guy. Again.
If you’re checking the "standings" in January, you're obviously looking at zeroes across the board. The games haven't started. But in the NL West, the standings are written in the winter. Between the blockbuster acquisitions, the surgical farm system graduations, and the sheer financial gravity of Los Angeles, the division hierarchy feels settled before a single pitch is thrown. Yet, if you look closer at the rosters in San Diego, Arizona, and San Francisco, there’s a weird amount of chaos brewing that could actually make 2026 more than just a Dodgers coronation tour.
The Dodgers and the Kyle Tucker Effect
It’s almost comical at this point. The Dodgers already had a lineup that looked like an All-Star roster, and then they went out and grabbed Kyle Tucker.
Think about that for a second. You have Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman. Then you add one of the most consistent, high-ceiling bats in the American League to man right field. Reports from insiders like Ken Rosenthal suggest Teoscar Hernandez is moving to left to accommodate Tucker. It’s an embarrassment of riches.
But what actually matters for the mlb west national league standings isn't just the star power. It's the depth. The Dodgers are reportedly looking to move guys like Bobby Miller or Ryan Ward just to clear 40-man roster space. Most teams in this division would kill to have a 26-year-old arm like Miller in their rotation. In LA, he’s a "roster casualty" candidate. That’s the gap we’re talking about.
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Why the Padres Aren't Going Away
San Diego is basically the "Hold my beer" of baseball franchises. A.J. Preller simply cannot help himself.
While FanGraphs and other projection models have been somewhat "sobering" on the Padres—some early runs had them hovering around an .500 record—the actual roster construction says otherwise. They just brought in KBO star Sung-mun Song to bolster the infield. Plus, Joe Musgrove is finally back from Tommy John surgery.
- The Rotation Gamble: They have Michael King and Dylan Cease, but they need that third "lock" starter. There are rumors they might flip Nick Pivetta (who is due a big payday) for a controllable arm like Tarik Skubal. It's a classic Preller move: high risk, potentially season-defining reward.
- The Jackson Merrill Leap: People forget Merrill was a runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 2024. If he takes another step forward in 2026, that middle-of-the-order becomes terrifying.
- The Coaching Change: With Craig Stammen taking over the managerial reins, there’s a new energy in the dugout. Sometimes a clubhouse just needs a different voice to stop the mid-summer slide.
Honestly, the Padres are the only team in the division with the sheer "don't care" attitude necessary to actually challenge the Dodgers over 162 games. They don't play safe. Sometimes it blows up, but it's never boring.
The Arizona Pitching Problem
Arizona is in a weird spot. They had that magical 2023 World Series run, but 2025 was a massive reality check. They finished 80-82, mostly because their bullpen was a revolving door of disasters.
Imagine setting a record by having 17 different pitchers record a save. That’s not "flexibility." That’s a cry for help.
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For the mlb west national league standings to look different in 2026, the D-backs need Merrill Kelly and Michael Soroka to be anchors, not just placeholders. They’ve got the bats—Corbin Carroll is still a superstar and Ketel Marte is arguably the most underrated player in baseball. But if you're ranking the division, Arizona feels like a team that is one more bullpen collapse away from a full-blown identity crisis. General Manager Mike Hazen hasn't been shy about it: they need pitching, and they need it yesterday.
The Giants: Stuck in the Middle?
San Francisco is the hardest team to figure out. They’ve been aggressive in the "moderately priced" free agent market, recently adding Adrian Houser to a rotation that already features Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
Webb is a horse. He’s going to give you 200 innings of quality ball every year. But after that? It’s a lot of "ifs."
- If Robbie Ray stays healthy.
- If Hayden Birdsong or Landen Roupp can actually stick in the rotation.
- If they can find a way to score more than four runs a game consistently.
The Giants are currently projected by some systems to win about 81 games. That is the definition of "baseball purgatory." Not bad enough to get a top pick, not good enough to scare the Dodgers. They seem to be waiting for their next big superstar to emerge from the farm, but until that happens, they’re basically the gatekeepers of the division's third spot.
The Rockies and the Long Climb
Look, I want to be optimistic about Colorado. Coors Field is a blast, and Ezequiel Tovar is a legit defensive wizard at shortstop. But the projections for the Rockies in 2026 are... rough. Some models have them losing over 100 games.
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They’ve made some interesting moves, like bringing in Willi Castro and Mickey Moniak to add some veteran presence to the outfield. And keep an eye on Chase Dollander—the kid has front-of-the-rotation stuff and could be the first real "Coors-proof" pitcher they've had in a long time. But in terms of the actual division race? They aren't there yet. They're playing a different game, focused on 2027 and beyond.
Real Talk: What the Numbers Actually Say
If we look at the 2026 ZiPS projections (the gold standard for this stuff), here is how the win-loss totals are shaping up before Spring Training:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 93-95 wins. (Clear favorites).
- San Diego Padres: 88-90 wins. (Wild Card locks).
- San Francisco Giants: 81-83 wins. (The "Could go either way" tier).
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 80-82 wins. (Struggling for consistency).
- Colorado Rockies: 62-65 wins. (Rebuilding).
The biggest misconception people have is that the Dodgers' "super-team" status makes them invincible. They aren't. We saw them struggle with injuries to their rotation in 2024 and 2025. If Tyler Glasnow or Yoshinobu Yamamoto miss significant time, that 95-win projection drops fast.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're following the mlb west national league standings this year, here’s how you should actually track the progress of these teams:
- Watch the Dodgers' 40-man roster moves: If they trade Bobby Miller for more prospects, it means they are doubling down on "win-now" veterans. If they keep him, they’re worried about rotation depth.
- Monitor the Padres' rotation innings: If Musgrove and Cease aren't hitting the 6-inning mark consistently by May, their bullpen will be fried by August.
- Keep an eye on the D-backs' closer situation: If they don't settle on one guy by the end of Spring Training, expect another 80-win season. Reliability in the 9th inning is their only path back to the playoffs.
- Check Logan Webb's velocity: He is the barometer for the Giants. If he's elite, they have a chance to steal a Wild Card spot. If he's just "good," they're a fourth-place team.
The NL West is still the most top-heavy division in baseball, but the gap between "great" and "good" is narrowing everywhere except Colorado. While the Dodgers have the best paper roster in history, the games are played on dirt, not spreadsheets.
To stay ahead of the curve, start tracking the Spring Training "velocity jumps" for young arms like Arizona's Cristian Mena or Colorado's Chase Dollander. These under-the-radar developments usually dictate which way the standings swing by June. Pay close attention to the early-season head-to-head matchups between the Padres and Dodgers; those series often set the psychological tone for the entire summer.