You've probably seen the screenshots. Some guy on Reddit or Discord posts a picture of 400 copies of a random 79-rated silver pitcher, and two weeks later, he's sitting on 5 million stubs and a completed Live Series collection. It looks like magic. Or maybe it looks like a full-time job.
Honestly, MLB The Show investing isn't as complicated as the spreadsheets make it seem, but it is way more nuanced than just "buying guys who hit home runs."
The market in MLB The Show 25 has evolved. In 2026, the community is smarter. The margins are tighter. If you’re still trying to invest based on what happened in The Show 21, you’re basically throwing your stubs into a black hole. SDS (San Diego Studios) has changed how they handle attribute boosts, and the old "diamond locks" don't really exist anymore.
The Roster Update Trap
The biggest mistake people make is buying into the hype way too late.
If a player is having a monster week and everyone on Twitter is screaming "DIAMOND UPGRADE," the profit is already gone. The price has already spiked. To actually make money, you have to be the one who bought that player ten days ago when they were sitting at their Quick Sell (QS) value.
Let's look at the math, because the math is the only thing that matters here. Every tier has a floor. If you buy a 78-rated silver for 150 stubs, your risk is essentially zero. Even if he stays silver, you can sell him back for what you paid. But if he jumps to an 80-rated gold? Suddenly that card has a 400-stub floor. You just tripled your money while taking zero risk.
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That is the "Golden Rule." Buy at the floor.
Finding the Right Stats (Hint: It’s Not Batting Average)
SDS doesn't just look at a player's box score and say, "Yeah, he looks like an 85." They use specific peripherals.
If you're looking for hitters to upgrade, stop looking at Batting Average. It's a fake stat for investing. You need to look at ISO (Isolated Power) for Power L/R upgrades and K% (Strikeout Percentage) for Vision. If a guy is hitting .350 but all his hits are singles and his BABIP is .450, he’s actually a bad investment. He’s lucky, and his attributes already reflect high contact.
Pitchers are often the safer bet. Why? Because K/9 and BB/9 are incredibly easy to track. If a pitcher’s real-life K/9 over the last three weeks is significantly higher than his card's attribute, an upgrade is coming. It’s almost mechanical.
The Art of the "Sell on Hype" Strategy
Here is a secret most "pro" investors won't tell you: You don't actually have to wait for the roster update to make a killing.
In fact, waiting for the update is often a gamble.
Let's say you bought 200 copies of a gold card for 1,000 stubs each. He’s playing great. The update is Friday. By Wednesday, the "hype" has pushed his price to 2,800 stubs. If he goes Diamond, his quick sell value becomes 3,000.
Think about that. You can sell now for 2,800 guaranteed, or wait 48 hours to maybe get 3,000. Is that extra 200 stubs worth the risk of SDS "trolling" and leaving him at an 84? Usually, the answer is no. Take the guaranteed profit. I've seen countless people hold cards through an update only to see the player stay the same rank. The price then crashes instantly as everyone panic-sells. You don't want to be the one holding the bag when the market floor falls out.
Diversification vs. Going All-In
We've all seen the "All-In" posts. It's high drama.
But unless you have millions of stubs to burn, going all-in on one player is a recipe for a bad time. One hamstring tweak or a 0-for-20 slump can ruin your entire month.
I prefer the "Portfolio Approach."
- The Core: 50% of your stubs in "Sure Things"—silvers near QS value who are locks for gold.
- The High Upside: 30% in potential Gold-to-Diamond candidates.
- The Long Shots: 20% in Bronzes who are playing above their station.
This way, if your big Diamond candidate gets snubbed, your silver-to-gold flips still pay for your next round of investments.
Flipping vs. Investing: Which is better?
Investing is for people with lives. Flipping is for people with time.
If you can spend three hours a day on the Companion App moving prices by 5 stubs, you will make more than an investor. No question. But if you want to play the game, or, you know, go outside, MLB The Show investing is the way to go.
It’s passive. You place your buy orders on Monday, you forget about them until the following Friday, and then you collect your checks.
Don't sleep on the "Exchange" market either. Sometimes, silver-to-gold exchanges are actually more profitable than the market itself if the prices of 77-79 rated players get too low. People get lazy. They just want the stubs now, and they’ll sell cards for way less than their exchange value.
Real Tools for Real Profits
You shouldn't be guessing. Use the tools the community has built.
- ShowZone.gg: This is the gold standard. Their "Roster Update Predictor" is scarily accurate because it uses the same three-week rolling window logic that SDS uses.
- FanGraphs: If you want to get ahead of the predictors, learn to use the "splits" tool here. Filter for the last 14 or 21 days. Look for outliers in H/9 for pitchers or ISO for hitters.
- The Companion App: If you aren't using the app to place bulk orders, you're doing it wrong. Trying to buy 500 cards on a console is a form of self-torture.
One final thing: watch the "Inside Edge" boosts. They aren't permanent, but they give you a hint of how SDS is viewing a player's current performance. If a guy is consistently getting +10 boosts from Inside Edge, his base attributes are likely due for a bump.
Immediate Action Items
Stop looking at the high-end Diamonds. You aren't going to make millions investing in Shohei Ohtani; his price is already at the ceiling.
Instead, go to the market right now and filter for Silver players (75-79) who are selling for within 25 stubs of their Quick Sell value. Check their real-world stats for the last two weeks on FanGraphs. If you find a guy with a high K-rate or a spiking ISO, put in 50 buy orders.
Do this for five different players.
By the next roster update, you’ll have a clear sense of how the "Floor" strategy works without the stress of losing your shirt. This isn't about hitting a home run every time; it's about a high on-base percentage. Consistency beats luck in the market every single season.
Check your inventory for duplicates you've ignored. Often, you're sitting on 50k stubs of "junk" cards that are actually prime investment fodder. Sell the fluff, buy the floor, and wait for the green arrows to hit.
Next Steps:
- Go to FanGraphs and filter "Live Series" players by ISO over the last 14 days to find your first three hitting targets.
- Use the MLB The Show Companion App to place 20 "Buy" orders at the current Quick Sell floor for those players.