The dust has barely settled on a 2025 season that saw the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees sprint into a literal dead heat on the final day of September. Honestly, if you blinked during the last week of the season, you probably missed three different lead changes. Now, as we sit in the heart of the 2026 offseason, everyone is staring at the mlb standings american league east grid and trying to figure out if the power has finally shifted away from the Bronx for good.
Last year was weird. The Blue Jays and Yankees both finished with 94 wins. Toronto grabbed the crown because they owned the tiebreaker, a stat that Michael Kay famously grumbled about, suggesting the Jays weren't "first-place caliber" due to their run differential. Tell that to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who spent the ALDS turning Yankee Stadium into his personal home run derby.
What the 2025 Standings Actually Told Us
If you look at how the 2025 season ended, the hierarchy looks clear on paper. But paper is a liar in this division. The final records for the East were:
- Toronto Blue Jays: 94-68 (Division Champs via tiebreaker)
- New York Yankees: 94-68 (Wild Card)
- Boston Red Sox: 89-73 (Wild Card)
- Tampa Bay Rays: 77-85
- Baltimore Orioles: 75-87
Three teams made the playoffs. That's standard for this meat grinder of a division. But look at those bottom two. The Orioles, who were everyone's "Team of the Future" in 2023 and 2024, absolutely cratered. They finished 19 games back. It was a disaster. The Rays? They stayed under .500 for most of the year, which is basically unheard of in the Kevin Cash era.
But things are changing fast. Right now, the 2026 standings are all zeros, but the front offices are acting like it’s Game 7 of the World Series.
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The Baltimore Resurgence is No Longer a Theory
If you think the Orioles are going to stay at the bottom, you haven't been paying attention to their bank account this winter. They just handed Pete Alonso a five-year, $155 million deal. Let that sink in. The "frugal" Orioles outbid the field for the Polar Bear.
They also went out and traded for Taylor Ward and snagged Ryan Helsley to close out games. They are tired of losing. Most projection systems, including ZiPS, are already obsessed with Gunnar Henderson. He’s projected for nearly a 6.0 fWAR in 2026. If Jackson Holliday actually finds his swing this year—and he looked much better in Triple-A late last season—the middle of that lineup is terrifying.
The big question mark in Baltimore is still the rotation. They have Shane Baz now (thanks, Rays), and they’ve been linked to Framber Valdez in every rumor mill from the Winter Meetings to now. Without a true "Big Hoss" at the top, they might just be a very expensive version of the 2024 team.
Toronto’s Defensive Crown
Toronto didn't just win the AL East last year; they almost won the whole thing, falling to the Dodgers in a seven-game World Series thriller. They aren't resting. They just gave Dylan Cease $210 million over seven years. It's a massive bet that his 2025 xERA was the real version of him, not the inflated ERA he carried for chunks of the summer.
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Bo Bichette is gone to the Mets, which hurts. Seeing him in blue and orange is going to be jarring for Jays fans. But they’ve fortified the pitching so heavily that they’re basically betting they can win every game 3-2. Between Cease, Kevin Gausman, and a surprisingly resurgent Max Scherzer (who is still hunting for work but might return), the Jays are the team to beat.
The Yankees and the "Quiet" Offseason
Yankees fans are currently losing their minds on social media. While the Jays and O's are throwing money around like confetti, Brian Cashman has mostly just re-signed bench pieces like Trent Grisham and Ryan Yarbrough.
Aaron Judge is 34. The window isn't closing, but it’s definitely not getting any wider. They’re the betting favorites to win the division at +200, mostly because people refuse to bet against the pinstripes. But honestly? Without another big arm or a replacement for the production they lost in the infield, that +200 feels like a trap.
The Red Sox and the Sonny Gray Gamble
Boston is the wild card in the literal and figurative sense. They didn't sign a single free agent to a major league deal for months. Then, they suddenly traded for Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras. It’s a "bridge" strategy. They want to be competitive while their top prospects—the Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel wave—get ready for 2027.
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But Sonny Gray is 36. If he pitches like an ace, Boston is a 90-win team. If his arm shows the miles, they’re 4th place.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Race
If you’re tracking the mlb standings american league east this year, keep your eyes on three specific things:
- The Orioles' Rotation Depth: If they don't land a frontline starter by Spring Training, their offense might have to score 6 runs a night just to stay in the race.
- The Blue Jays' Post-Bichette Infield: How they fill the hole at shortstop will determine if they can repeat as division champs.
- The Rays' Bounce-back: Never count out Tampa Bay. They traded Cedric Mullins but they always have five guys in Triple-A throwing 101 mph that no one has heard of yet.
The 2026 season officially starts in March, but the standings are being written right now in the front offices of Baltimore and Toronto. It’s going to be a bloodbath.
To stay ahead of the curve, monitor the late-January free agent flurry. Historically, players like Cody Bellinger and Blake Snell have waited late into the winter to sign, and either one landing in the AL East would immediately shift the divisional odds by 10% or more.