Baseball is back, or at least the talk of it is. We are officially in that weird, frozen part of January where the hot stove is still smoldering and every fan is refreshing Twitter (or X, whatever) to see if their team signed a middle reliever they’ve never heard of. But the MLB playoff race for 2026 is already looking weird. Really weird.
It’s January 15, 2026. Usually, we’re just dreaming about spring training. But because Major League Baseball moved the 2026 Opening Night up to March 25—the earliest domestic start in the history of the sport—the clock is ticking way faster than usual. We’re basically two months out from games that actually matter.
Honestly, the 2025 season was a bit of a fever dream. The Los Angeles Dodgers did the thing everyone hated/expected and won their second straight World Series, taking down the Toronto Blue Jays in a seven-game nail-biter. Now, they're looking at a "three-peat" attempt, something we haven't seen since the Yankees' dynasty at the turn of the millennium. But if you think 2026 is just going to be a victory lap for Shohei Ohtani and company, you haven't been paying attention to the arms race in the American League.
The AL East is basically a gladiator pit
If you want to talk about the MLB playoff race, you have to start in the AL East. It’s exhausting. Last year, the Blue Jays and Yankees both finished with 94 wins. FanGraphs projections for 2026 literally have them tied again at 94-68. It’s a coin flip.
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Toronto is betting the house on their rotation. You’ve got Kevin Gausman entering his contract year, a healthy Shane Bieber looking for a massive payday, and Dylan Cease—who they snagged to bolster the front end. They even have the rookie Trey Yesavage waiting in the wings. It’s arguably the best staff in baseball.
But then you look at the Yankees. They didn't make a "mega-move" this winter, but they’re banking on Gerrit Cole returning to his cyborg-like consistency. Plus, they led the league with 274 homers last year. If Aaron Judge and Juan Soto stay upright for 150 games, 95 wins feels like a floor, not a ceiling.
Don’t sleep on the Orioles, either. They fell off a cliff in 2025 (75-87) mostly because half their roster was in a cast. They just signed Pete Alonso. "Polar Bear" in Camden Yards? That’s 40 homers waiting to happen. They also traded for Ryan Helsley to lock down the ninth. The AL East might legitimately produce three playoff teams again.
Dodgers vs. The World (and the Phillies)
Over in the National League, the math is simpler but the vibes are more intense. The Dodgers are the +300 favorites to win it all. No surprise there. They have the highest payroll, the biggest stars, and apparently, a deal with the devil to never have a rebuilding year.
However, the Philadelphia Phillies are the real threat here. They actually pushed past the Dodgers for a bit late last season as the odds-on favorites after snagging a first-round bye. They finished 2025 with 96 wins, the best in the NL East. With Bryce Harper and a rotation that refuses to age, they are the only team that seems to have the "big game" DNA to actually stare down Los Angeles in October.
The Mets are the wild card—literally and figuratively. Steve Cohen is still spending like he’s playing video games with a cheat code. They’re projected to have the second-highest payroll in 2026. If Francisco Lindor plays like an MVP again, the NL East race between Philly and Queens is going to be a bloodbath.
How the 12-team bracket changes the math
The 12-team format isn't "new" anymore, but teams are finally learning how to gamify it. We saw the Rangers win it all as a No. 5 seed in '23. We saw the Diamondbacks make the World Series as a No. 6. Basically, the MLB playoff race isn't about being the best; it’s about not being the 7th best.
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- The Bye is Everything: Getting that No. 1 or No. 2 seed means skipping the best-of-three Wild Card round. In a short series, anything can happen. Ask the 2024 Dodgers (before they won the next year)—one bad start from an ace and your season is over in 48 hours.
- Seeding over Records: Remember, division winners get the top three spots regardless of record. If the AL Central winner has 84 wins and a Wild Card team has 92, that 84-win team still gets to host a playoff series. It’s unfair, and it’s glorious.
- Tiebreakers are Math now: No more Game 163. If two teams are tied for the final spot on September 27, it goes to head-to-head records. Every random Tuesday game in May suddenly has massive playoff implications.
Why the March 25 start date matters
Usually, teams have a "grace period" in April to find themselves. Not this year. The 2026 schedule is the earliest ever. We’re playing meaningful baseball while people in Chicago are still wearing parkas.
This early start is partially to accommodate the 2026 World Cup. MLB had to bake in off-days for cities like Arlington, Kansas City, and Seattle because they share parking lots and infrastructure with World Cup venues. If your team has a heavy schedule in June or July, they might be dealing with some weird travel fatigue that they haven't faced before.
The Mariners, for instance, have a doubleheader on June 20 because they have to clear out for a soccer match. Those are the kinds of small details that end up deciding a one-game difference in the standings.
Actionable insights for the 2026 season
If you’re looking to follow the MLB playoff race like a pro this year, keep your eyes on these specific pivot points:
- Watch the International Signings: The window just opened today (Jan 15). The Pirates and Tigers just landed huge hauls. In the current MLB, these kids move fast. A guy like Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) could be a regular by May.
- Monitor the AL Central "Mid-Off": The Guardians are projected at 88 wins and the Tigers at 87. That division is going to be decided by whoever wins their head-to-head season series.
- The "250th" Factor: The All-Star Game is in Philly this year (July 14) for the U.S. semiquincentennial. Expect the Phillies to be aggressive at the trade deadline to make sure they aren't just hosting the party, but winning the whole thing.
- Check the "Sutter Health" Effect: The Athletics are playing in West Sacramento again. It’s a tiny park. Pitchers are going to hate it. If you're tracking Wild Card races, look at how many road games teams have in that "minor league" environment—it could skew home run stats and ERA for the whole league.
The regular season ends September 27. It's going to be a sprint. Between the early start, the World Cup scheduling headaches, and the Dodgers' quest for a dynasty, the 2026 race is shaping up to be the most chaotic one we've seen in a decade.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should start tracking team ERA and "Strength of Schedule" as early as mid-April. Because the season starts so early, the "sample size" trap will be real—don't overreact to a hot start from the Pirates or a slow one from the Braves. The 162-game grind is still a marathon, even if it starts in the winter.