So, the 2026 Hall of Fame results are basically right around the corner—January 20th to be exact—and everyone is losing their minds over who’s getting into Cooperstown. It's that time of year where we all pretend to be math geniuses, staring at spreadsheets and arguing about whether a guy who hit .270 but played "the right way" belongs next to Babe Ruth. Honestly, the whole thing is a bit of a mess.
If you look at the 2025 results, you saw Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia cruise in on their first try. No surprises there. Ichiro almost became the second unanimous pick in history, missing by just one single vote. One guy out of 394 decided Ichiro wasn't a Hall of Famer. Let that sink in. Billy Wagner also finally made it in his 10th year, which was a huge relief for the "closers are people too" crowd. But now we’re looking at the 2026 ballot, and the math for mlb hall of fame probability is getting weird.
The Magic Formulas Most Fans Get Wrong
We have all these fancy metrics now. People love to throw around JAWS, Black Ink, and the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor like they're ordering a complicated Starbucks drink. But here’s the thing: they don’t all measure the same thing. Some measure how good a player was, while others try to guess if the voters will actually like them.
The Hall of Fame Monitor is basically a "voter mind-reader." Bill James built it to see how much "shiny stuff" a player has. You get points for 200-hit seasons, MVPs, and World Series rings. If a player hits 100 on this scale, they’ve got a "good possibility." If they hit 130, they're a "virtual cinch."
Then you have JAWS (Jaffe War Score System), created by Jay Jaffe. This one is the darling of the analytics crowd. It averages a player's career WAR with their seven-year peak WAR. It’s cold. It’s calculated. It doesn’t care if you were a "clubhouse leader" or if you had a cool nickname. It just wants to know if you were better than the average Hall of Famer at your position.
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Why the 2026 Ballot is Kind of a Headache
Take Carlos Beltrán. In 2025, he finished with 70.3%. He’s sitting right on the doorstep of that 75% requirement. On paper? His mlb hall of fame probability should be 100%. He’s got the 400 homers, the 300 steals, and he was a postseason god. But then you have the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal hanging over his head like a dark cloud. Voters are slowly forgiving him, but it's taking a while.
And then there's Andruw Jones.
Best defensive center fielder I’ve ever seen.
Ten Gold Gloves.
434 home runs.
He’s at 66.2% going into the 2026 cycle. If he doesn’t make a massive jump this year, he’s running out of time because he’s in his 9th year on the ballot.
The Pitcher Problem is Real
We are entering an era where starting pitchers just don't rack up the stats anymore. Nobody wins 300 games. Nobody even smells 250 most of the time. This is making the mlb hall of fame probability for guys like Félix Hernández and Justin Verlander look totally different than it did for guys in the 90s.
Félix is a fascinating case. He only got 20.6% of the vote in 2025. His peak was insane—The King was untouchable for a decade. But he fell off a cliff at age 30. If you look at JAWS, he’s borderline. If you look at the "feel" of his career, he feels like a Hall of Famer. But voters are still stuck on those 169 career wins. In today's game, 169 wins is actually a lot, but compared to the old-school standards? It looks tiny.
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The Newcomers: Who’s Actually a Threat?
The 2026 ballot added a bunch of names, but honestly? Most of them are "One-and-Dones." You’ve got guys like Matt Kemp, Brian McCann, and Shin-Soo Choo. Great players. Fun to watch. But they aren't getting a plaque.
The only new names people are really debating are Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun.
Braun has the MVP and the stats, but he also has a massive PED suspension. After seeing what happened to Barry Bonds and A-Rod (who is still stuck at 37.1% as of 2025), Braun basically has zero chance.
Hamels is interesting because he was a postseason hero for the Phillies, but his career numbers are just a tier below the "locks." He’s probably going to linger on the ballot for a few years, but don't buy your tickets to Cooperstown for him just yet.
Let’s Talk About the "Steroid Stalemate"
It’s been years, and we’re still arguing about Manny Ramírez and Alex Rodriguez.
Manny is in his 10th and final year in 2026. He’s at 34.3%. He is gone after this year.
A-Rod is at 37.1%. He’s not moving.
The voters have made their point: if you got caught twice, you’re out. It doesn't matter if you have 600 home runs. The mlb hall of fame probability for the PED era legends has essentially flatlined.
How to Actually Predict the Next Class
If you want to know who’s getting in, stop looking at career batting average. It’s 2026; nobody cares about a .300 average as much as they used to. Look at these three things instead:
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- The "Next Man Up" Trend: Voters love to move in packs. Once a guy hits 60%, they usually get in within two or three years. Beltrán and Jones are the obvious beneficiaries here.
- The Tracker Effect: Keep an eye on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker. It’s the gold standard. When writers post their ballots early, it gives us a massive hint. Usually, the final percentage drops a bit from the tracker because the private voters are more "grumpy" and stingy than the public ones.
- Positional Scarcity: We are severely lacking catchers and third basemen in the Hall. This is why guys like Chase Utley (who jumped to 39.8% in 2025) are gaining steam. Analytics-heavy voters love Utley’s defense and baserunning, even if his hit total (1,885) makes old-timers cringe.
Real Talk on the Underdogs
Bobby Abreu and Jimmy Rollins are just... stuck.
Abreu is a stat-head's dream. High OBP, 30/30 seasons, great longevity. But he’s under 20%.
Rollins has the MVP and the ring, but his career OPS+ is actually below average for a Hall of Famer.
Their mlb hall of fame probability is basically a coin flip that keeps landing on its edge. They’ll stay on the ballot, but they need a huge shift in how we value "very good for a long time" versus "elite for a short time."
What You Can Do Now
If you're a die-hard fan or a collector, keep a close watch on the BBWAA trends for 2026. The shift toward "Peak Value" over "Counting Stats" is the biggest story in baseball right now.
Check out the JAWS leaders on Baseball-Reference for active players like Mike Trout or Mookie Betts—those guys are already "in" even if they retired tomorrow. For the guys on the 2026 bubble, watch the early ballot reveals in December. If Carlos Beltrán starts showing up on 85% of the early public ballots, he’s a lock. If Andruw Jones holds steady at 70%, it’s going to be a nail-biter until the final minute.
Don't just look at the home runs. Look at the WAR7. Look at the era-adjusted stats. That’s where the actual induction happens these days. If you're betting on who’s next, follow the writers who prioritize "efficiency" over "longevity." That’s where the wind is blowing.