The winter chill hasn't stopped the stove from absolutely melting down this week. If you thought the Dodgers were done after their recent run of dominance, well, seeing Kyle Tucker ink a four-year, $240 million deal to head to LA probably ruined your morning if you're a Giants or Padres fan. It's wild. One minute we’re debating if he stays in Houston, the next he’s wearing Dodger Blue.
Then you’ve got the Mets. They just dropped a massive three-year, $126 million bag on Bo Bichette. It’s a huge gamble, honestly. He’s moving to third base, which is a weird fit on paper, but after a rebound .311 season in 2025, Steve Cohen clearly didn't want to play it safe anymore.
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But let’s be real for a second. Even with the big fish like Tucker, Bichette, and Pete Alonso (who is officially an Baltimore Oriole now—still feels weird to say) off the board, the mlb free agent rumors mill is actually getting more chaotic, not less. We are officially in the "panic buy" phase of January. Pitchers and catchers report in about five weeks. GMs are staring at their depth charts and seeing nothing but giant, gaping holes.
The Pitching Market is Getting Weirdly Cheap
You’d think a guy like Zac Gallen would have been signed months ago. I mean, he’s a Cy Young finalist from just a few years back. Instead, the word around the league is that he’s getting "squeezed."
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Basically, because he’s tied to a qualifying offer and had a rough 4.83 ERA last year, teams are treating him like he’s a reclamation project. Rumor has it the Mets might try to snag him for something like $14 million a year. If you told me two years ago Gallen would be a "discount" option, I’d have laughed in your face.
Then there is Framber Valdez. The Astros just signed Tatsuya Imai from Japan, which pretty much signaled the end of the Framber era in Houston. He’s 32, he’s a groundball machine, and he’s thrown more innings than almost anyone since 2022. The Orioles are reportedly sniffing around, but don't count out the Red Sox. Boston has been unusually quiet, and their fans are starting to get restless.
Remaining Top Starters Available:
- Framber Valdez: The workhorse.
- Zac Gallen: The "buy-low" candidate of the century.
- Ranger Suárez: The lefty everyone wants but nobody has paid yet.
- Walker Buehler: Still looking to prove the elbow is 100%.
Cody Bellinger and the Waiting Game
Nobody plays the market like Scott Boras. Cody Bellinger is still sitting out there, and it feels like 2024 all over again. He can play first, he can play all three outfield spots, and he’s still relatively young.
The Yankees are the obvious fit. They need someone to play alongside Judge, especially with Paul Goldschmidt likely heading elsewhere or retiring (that drop-off in the second half of 2025 was brutal to watch). But the Blue Jays are also lurking. They lost out on Tucker. They lost out on Bichette. They have money burning a hole in their pocket and a fan base that wants a star.
Honestly, it feels like Bellinger is just waiting for one of these teams to blink. If the Yankees don't get him, who do they turn to? Marcell Ozuna? The Cleveland Guardians are actually the favorites for Ozuna right now, which would be a huge power boost for a team that usually plays small ball.
The Trade Market is the Real Wild Card
When the free agent pool starts to look a bit thin, teams start looking at trades. Tarik Skubal is the name on everyone’s lips. The Tigers say they aren't moving him, but every executive in the league is checking in. If the Dodgers or Orioles offered a package of three top-50 prospects, do the Tigers really say no?
And don't forget Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals are clearly in a transition phase. There have been heavy whispers about the Diamondbacks taking him on if St. Louis eats enough of that contract. It makes sense. Arizona needs a stopgap at third while they wait for their young guys to develop.
What's Next for the Remaining Free Agents?
If you're a fan of a team that hasn't made a move yet, don't jump off a bridge just yet. The "mid-tier" is where the value is. Guys like Luis Arraez and J.T. Realmuto are still looking for homes. Arraez is a weird case—he hits .300 every year but has zero power and questionable defense. In 2026, where every team wants "explosive" athletes, a guy who just pokes singles is a hard sell, even if he's a three-time batting champ.
Actionable Insights for the Rest of the Offseason:
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- Watch the Phillies: They just exercised a club option on José Alvarado, but they still need outfield depth. Keep an eye on them for Harrison Bader or even a late run at Bellinger.
- The "Qualifying Offer" Penalty: This is why Gallen is still available. After the draft in July, these players become much more attractive. But nobody wants to wait that long. Expect a flurry of one-year "pillow" contracts in the next 10 days.
- The Japanese Impact: With Munetaka Murakami already signed by the White Sox (a huge shocker) and Imai with the Astros, the international market is mostly picked over. Teams that missed out will now have to overpay for veteran MLB arms like Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito.
The hot stove is basically a game of musical chairs right now. The music is about to stop, and there are still some very expensive players standing around without a seat. Whether it's the Yankees finally opening the checkbook for Bellinger or the Red Sox making a desperate play for Valdez, the next two weeks will define the 2026 season.