If you’ve spent any time looking at the MLB Cy Young odds 2025 lately, you know the feeling. It’s that weird mix of "yeah, that makes sense" and "there is no way I'm betting my lunch money on that."
We’re in a strange era of pitching. The days of 250-inning workhorses are basically dead. Now, we’re looking at kids who throw 102 mph and veterans who are one "funny feeling" in their elbow away from a fifteen-month vacation.
Honestly, the 2025 race is shaping up to be a total bloodbath.
The Monsters at the Top: Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes
Let’s talk about the elephants in the room. Or rather, the fire-breathers. Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes aren't just favorites; they are the gravity that the rest of the league orbits around.
Skubal opened as the heavy favorite for the American League (+400), and why wouldn't he? The guy just came off a Triple Crown season in 2024. He’s the ace of a Detroit Tigers squad that finally remembered how to win games. But here’s the kicker: his odds have already been moving like crazy. By mid-season 2025, he was sitting at a ridiculous -4000 in some books.
Why? Because the man is a machine. He leads the league in WHIP (0.83) and fWAR (5.7). Watching him pitch is like watching a surgeon who also happens to throw 98 mph.
Over in the National League, Paul Skenes is doing things that shouldn't be legal. He opened at +300. By September, he was -50000. Yes, you read that right. Five zeros.
Skenes is the first pitcher since the dead-ball era to look this dominant this fast. His ERA has been hovering around a microscopic 1.97. He’s holding hitters to a .187 average. If you’re betting on anyone else in the NL at this point, you’re basically hoping for a miracle or a very specific type of paperwork error.
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The "What If" Tier: Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox Surge
If Skubal is the king of the AL, Garrett Crochet is the guy trying to storm the castle.
When Crochet moved to the Red Sox, people weren't sure if his arm would hold up. He was a reliever turned starter—a transition that usually ends in a doctor's office. Instead, he’s leading the AL in strikeouts per nine innings (11.18) and has crossed the 200-inning mark.
It’s actually kinda wild. Most "experts" thought he'd be on a pitch count. Instead, he’s been a workhorse. His odds started at +600 and have stayed competitive all year, even if Skubal is making it impossible to actually win the trophy.
Other AL Names to Keep an Eye On:
- Hunter Brown (Astros): He’s quietly become the ace in Houston. His 2.47 ERA is legit.
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Look, we all love him. He’s the best pitcher on the planet when he’s healthy. But he’s +1200 for a reason. You’re betting on his ligaments, not his talent.
- Max Fried (Yankees): Moving to the Bronx hasn't slowed him down. He’s got 12 wins and a 2.78 ERA.
The National League’s "Best of the Rest"
If you can ignore Skenes for a second—which is hard, I know—the NL race has some fascinating value.
Zack Wheeler is basically the "Leonardo DiCaprio before he won the Oscar" of pitchers. He’s always there. He’s always dominant. He’s the iron man, projected for 200+ innings every single year. He started at +750, but he’s been fighting for second place with Cristopher Sánchez from the Phillies.
Sánchez is a trip. He’s a groundball specialist in a world of flyball hitters. His 2.40 ERA is fifth-best in the majors. He doesn't have the "wow" factor of Skenes’ triple-digit heat, but he just gets people out.
Then there’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers paid $325 million for him, and in 2025, it’s finally looking like a bargain. He’s reached the 200-strikeout mark and is leading qualified starters with a .183 opponent batting average.
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Why the MLB Cy Young Odds 2025 Are So Volatile
If you’re looking at these numbers and thinking they change every week, you’re right.
Vegas doesn't just look at ERA anymore. They look at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), xERA, and even stuff like "Run Value."
For example, Skubal’s +51 run value is the best in the majors. It means he’s literally saving his team more runs than anyone else. Oddsmakers see that and tighten the lines immediately.
But there’s also the "voter fatigue" and "narrative" factor. Voters love a story. Skenes is a story. Skubal repeating is a story. Crochet coming out of nowhere to lead the league in Ks is a story.
The Dark Horses That Could Ruin Everything
Betting on the favorites is boring. If you want a real payout, you have to look at the guys at +2500 or +4000.
Logan Gilbert in Seattle is a prime candidate. He led the league in innings in 2024 and he’s doing it again. The Mariners have a "pitcher factory" vibe going on. If the Mariners win the AL West, Gilbert’s +1600 odds are going to look like a steal.
In the NL, keep an eye on Spencer Strider. He’s coming back from that internal brace surgery. If he hits the ground running in the second half of the season, his +2200 odds will vanish. He’s the only guy who can match Skenes’ strikeout volume pitch-for-pitch.
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Making Sense of the Betting Board
Don't just chase the lowest number.
If you're looking at the MLB Cy Young odds 2025, you need to consider the schedule. A pitcher in the AL Central (like Skubal) gets to face some... let's call them "offensively challenged" teams quite often. A pitcher in the NL West has to deal with the Dodgers and Padres lineups constantly.
What to look for before placing a bet:
- Inning Limits: Is the team going to shut the kid down in September?
- K/BB Ratio: This is the most stable stat. If they strike out 7 for every 1 they walk, they’re elite.
- The "Quality Start" Factor: Voters still care about winning, even if they say they don't. A guy with 18 wins is always going to have an edge over a guy with 10 wins and a slightly better ERA.
What You Should Do Next
If you’re serious about following the MLB Cy Young odds 2025, your next step should be checking the updated injury reports for the top five favorites.
One "precautionary" MRI can shift a line from +400 to +1500 in three minutes.
Keep an eye on the Wednesday afternoon games specifically. That’s usually when the "Day Game After Night Game" lineups come out, and smart bettors use those weak lineups to see which pitchers are about to have a 10-strikeout afternoon that boosts their Cy Young resume.
Also, watch the "Innings Pitched" leaderboard on FanGraphs. If Skenes or Skubal start falling behind the 180-inning pace, the door opens for guys like Wheeler or Gilbert to steal the hardware through sheer volume.