MLB Baseball Draft History: Why the Biggest Stars Almost Didn't Happen

MLB Baseball Draft History: Why the Biggest Stars Almost Didn't Happen

You’ve probably heard the story of Mike Piazza. If you haven't, it’s basically the ultimate "I told you so" in professional sports. Drafted in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft—pick number 1,390—as a favor to his dad’s friend, Tommy Lasorda. Piazza wasn't supposed to be a Hall of Famer. Honestly, he wasn't even supposed to make it past Single-A. But he did. And his story is just one weird thread in the massive, often chaotic tapestry of mlb baseball draft history.

Before 1965, baseball was essentially the Wild West. If you were a wealthy team like the New York Yankees or the St. Louis Cardinals, you just went out and bought the best amateur players. You’d offer a "bonus baby" a suitcase full of cash, and they’d sign on the dotted line. Smaller teams? They were basically left with the scraps. It was an era of "hunting ivory," where the deepest pockets won every single time.

The Rick Reichardt Incident and the Birth of the Draft

Everything changed because of a guy named Rick Reichardt. In 1964, the California Angels gave Reichardt, a star outfielder from the University of Wisconsin, a $205,000 signing bonus. To put that in perspective, that was more than many Major League veterans were making at the time. The owners collectively lost their minds. They realized that if they didn't stop outbidding each other, they’d eventually go broke.

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So, in 1965, the first official amateur draft was born. The goal was simple: level the playing field. Let the worst teams pick first. Stop the crazy bonuses.

The Kansas City Athletics had the first-ever pick and took Rick Monday. He was a safe bet. But if you look back at that 1965 class, the real gems were hidden way down the list. Nolan Ryan went in the 12th round to the Mets. Johnny Bench was a second-rounder. It turns out, even when you give everyone an "equal" shot, scouting is still a massive gamble.

High School vs. College: The Great Debate

For decades, there’s been this tug-of-war between drafting a 17-year-old high school phenom or a 21-year-old college "polished" arm. Early on, teams loved the high schoolers. They were younger, had more "ceiling," and were basically clay you could mold.

But then guys like Bill James started looking at the numbers. Between 1967 and 1971, only seven college players were taken in the first round. However, those college guys were significantly more likely to actually reach the big leagues. By the late 70s, the tide shifted. In 1978, for the first time, a majority of draftees came from the college ranks.

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The Risk of the "Sure Thing"

You’d think the number one overall pick would be a lock for the Hall of Fame, right? Not even close. MLB baseball draft history is littered with names you’ve probably forgotten.

  • Brien Taylor (1991): The Yankees gave him $1.55 million. He was the "best pitching prospect ever." Then he got into a bar fight, hurt his shoulder, and never threw a single pitch in the majors.
  • Matt Bush (2004): The Padres took him over Justin Verlander. Think about that for a second. Verlander is a first-ballot Hall of Famer; Bush struggled with off-field issues for years before eventually making it as a reliever much later.
  • Danny Goodwin: This guy is a trivia answer. He’s the only player ever taken #1 overall twice (1971 and 1975). He didn't sign the first time.

Money, Slotting, and the 2012 Shift

Until 2012, the draft was still kinda messy financially. Agents like Scott Boras would find ways to squeeze teams for massive "over-slot" bonuses. If a player was a "tough sign," they’d drop in the draft, and a rich team would snag them at pick 30 and pay them top-5 money anyway. It was a loophole that drove small-market GMs crazy.

The 2012 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) changed the game again by introducing "hard" bonus pools. Now, every pick has a specific "slot value." If you spend too much on one guy, you have to spend less on everyone else. If you blow past your total pool, you lose future draft picks. It’s basically a salary cap for kids who haven't even seen a curveball at the pro level yet.

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For 2025, the slot value for the #1 overall pick (held by the Washington Nationals) is over $11 million. That’s a far cry from the $104,000 Rick Monday got in '65.

Why the "Steal" Still Matters

Even with all the data, the AI, and the high-speed cameras, teams still miss. They miss a lot. The best part of mlb baseball draft history isn't the first-rounders; it’s the guys who were ignored.

  1. Mike Piazza (62nd Round): As mentioned, the ultimate outlier.
  2. John Smoltz (22nd Round): Drafted by the Tigers, traded to the Braves, and became a legend.
  3. Albert Pujols (13th Round): Scouts thought he was too slow and his age was a question mark. Oops.
  4. Trevor Hoffman (11th Round): He was actually drafted as a shortstop! He didn't even start pitching until he was in the minors.

The Lottery Era: 2023 and Beyond

In 2023, MLB introduced the Draft Lottery. Before this, you could basically "tank" (lose on purpose) to guarantee the top pick. Now, the bottom teams all have a chance at the #1 spot, but nothing is guaranteed. It adds a bit of "NBA-style" drama to the process.

In the 2025 draft cycle, we've seen teams like the Seattle Mariners jump up 12 spots in the lottery, gaining millions in bonus pool money just by luck. It makes the strategy much more complex. Do you take the best player available, or do you take a guy who will sign for cheap so you can spend that money in the later rounds?

Lessons from the History Books

If you're a fan trying to make sense of your team's draft performance, keep these things in mind:

  • Patience is Mandatory: Unlike the NFL or NBA, where a first-round pick starts immediately, MLB draftees usually take 3–5 years to reach the big leagues. Judging a draft after one year is pointless.
  • Health over Hype: The most common reason for a "bust" isn't a lack of talent; it’s injury. Arm injuries for pitchers are still the biggest wildcard in sports.
  • Signability is King: Sometimes a team passes on a superstar because they know that kid is going to college unless they pay him $15 million. It’s a business decision as much as an athletic one.

Actionable Insights for Fans

If you want to track how your team is handling mlb baseball draft history in real-time, start by following the "Bonus Pool" tracker during the July draft. Watch for "under-slot" signings in the first round—this usually means the team is planning to "steal" a high-end high schooler in the 2nd or 3rd round by offering them way more money than that spot usually pays.

You can also use tools like Baseball-Reference to look at "WAR by Draft Year" for your favorite team. If they aren't producing at least one 10+ WAR player every three years, their scouting department is likely failing them.

Next time the draft rolls around, don't just look at the names. Look at the slot values. That’s where the real game is played.